{"id":10454,"date":"2025-10-20T12:08:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T10:08:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=10454"},"modified":"2025-10-20T12:08:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T10:08:21","slug":"the-power-grid-is-too-old-for-the-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/10\/20\/the-power-grid-is-too-old-for-the-energy-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"The Power Grid Is Too Old for the Energy Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"

Europe\u2019s electrical heart is beating ever more weakly. Blackouts, regional price gaps, bottlenecks: the grid that should sustain the continent\u2019s energy future is now outdated and unprepared. Yet without a complete rethink of this infrastructure \u2014 which struggles to adapt to changes in technology and consumption habits \u2014 it will be impossible to expand renewable energy and achieve decarbonization goals. While such a redesign requires massive investment, ultimately reflected in energy bills, the biggest obstacles come from the long bureaucratic procedures every project must endure. Between submarine cables, high-voltage lines, and multibillion-euro plans, a decisive match is being played: because without a modern, reliable grid, the electric revolution could short-circuit before it even begins.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s power grid continues to send alarming signals of fatigue \u2014 from the historic blackout in Spain and Portugal to the wildly uneven, sometimes even negative, electricity prices within the EU single market. The infrastructure seems unable to withstand the pressures of the energy transition. More than 40% of Europe\u2019s transmission network \u2014 managed in Italy by the state-controlled monopoly Terna \u2014 was built over twenty years ago. Only one-third has been renewed in the past decade. According to the International Energy Agency, among major economic blocs, only Japan and the United States perform worse in terms of obsolescence.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

An Infrastructure Stretched to Its Limits by a True Revolution<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The second age of electrification is still in its infancy when it comes to infrastructure. Without an adequate grid, decarbonization goals are simply out of reach: the expansion of renewables demands a complete rethinking of the system. In the past, the grid was built around a central \u201cheart\u201d \u2014 thermal, hydro, or nuclear power plants \u2014 with a circulatory system of arteries, veins, and capillaries. Today, energy often flows from the periphery to the center, and the \u201chearts\u201d have multiplied.<\/p>\n

At the start of the millennium, Italy had just over 5,000 power generation plants, fossil and renewable combined. By 2024, that number has approached 2 million, most of them rooftop photovoltaic systems on homes and warehouses. It\u2019s a revolution that requires ever more high-voltage lines, substations, and distribution cabinets.<\/p>\n

Just as generation has changed, so too has demand. Step into any newly built home: heat pumps, battery storage, induction stoves, electric vehicles, smart home systems \u2014 virtually everything now runs on electrons. The Italian government projects that by 2030, final consumption will require 20% more generation than today, and by 2040 as much as 43% more. If realized, these forecasts would reverse the historic trend of stagnating electricity demand seen in Italy over the past two decades. The growing electrification of society will be covered mostly by renewables, whose production is expected to triple in the next fifteen years. Nuclear power \u2014 promoted by the current governing majority \u2014 is projected to cover only about 5% of demand.<\/p>\n

The Consequences of Grid Congestion<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In recent years, the power grid has failed to keep pace with the growth in both supply and demand. The main obstacle to renewable expansion is, in fact, congestion \u2014 a situation in which the grid cannot perform its fundamental function: carrying electricity from where it is produced to where it is consumed.<\/p>\n

In theory, electricity should have a single price. As the ultimate commodity, electrons would be traded in a perfectly competitive market if there were no limits to transmission. But such limits exist \u2014 seas, mountain ranges, bottlenecks in the network.<\/p>\n

With the spread of wind and solar plants, generation in Italy is now much more geographically dispersed than in the past, when gas and hydroelectric plants sufficed to meet industrial demand in northern Italy. Today it\u2019s the transmission grid that must transport electricity from south to north \u2014 while also managing the intermittency of renewables, since sun and wind cannot be scheduled.<\/p>\n

When transmission capacity falls short, congestion arises \u2014 either an excess of supply (outgoing congestion) or demand (incoming congestion). In the first case, electricity prices drop in the area with overproduction; in the second, they rise in the region unable to import enough low-cost energy to meet its needs.<\/p>\n

According to an analysis by the Bank of Italy, in 2023 the equilibrium price of electricity differed among northern, central, and southern Italy in 27% of cases \u2014 an improvement from recent years, yet still high. The north and center experienced more frequent excess-demand conditions, relying on imports or thermal generation, both costlier and less sustainable than renewables. The south, by contrast, often faced overproduction. In extreme cases, this led to a paradox: wholesale electricity prices hitting zero in the south, while remaining high elsewhere in the country. The result is a double blow \u2014 discouraging investment in renewables unless backed by subsidies, while penalizing consumers, who end up overpaying due to grid inefficiency.<\/p>\n

Grid congestion also hampers the activation of new renewable projects, as the infrastructure is already near saturation. In Italy, connection requests submitted to the grid operator total 348 gigawatts of capacity \u2014 far exceeding national needs. While many of these projects exist only on paper, the sheer number highlights the delays afflicting both the Italian and European networks. Renewables require technologies different from traditional thermal plants: to carry power efficiently, the grid must increasingly use direct current \u2014 where electrons flow in a single direction \u2014 unlike the conventional alternating current system. Moreover, because solar and wind are intermittent, energy storage must expand rapidly: large battery plants or new hydro reservoirs are essential to store electricity and release it when needed.<\/p>\n

A European Issue<\/strong><\/h3>\n

That Europe\u2019s grid urgently needs modernization is confirmed by data from the European Commission. Brussels estimates that more than \u20ac580 billion in investment will be needed by 2030 to upgrade infrastructure \u2014 a figure that industry representatives say could rise to \u20ac650 billion.<\/p>\n

According to the Commission, national climate plans still lack sufficient commitments and clear timelines for building new lines and reinforcing existing ones. The goal is for all EU countries to achieve by decade\u2019s end at least 15% cross-border exchange capacity relative to installed power. As of today, only half of member states have reached that threshold. Among the laggards are Spain, Greece, Italy, and France \u2014 not coincidentally, nations bordered by seas or mountains that raise the cost of power lines and submarine cables.<\/p>\n

The European energy regulator ACER reports that only half of the cross-border transmission capacity needed by 2030 is currently operational or included in national investment plans. Europe\u2019s delay is due not only to financial constraints but also to lengthy authorization and construction timelines. International Energy Agency data show that building a high-voltage line in Europe takes, on average, eight years \u2014 between permits and tenders \u2014 compared with three years in India and just one and a half in China.<\/p>\n

With a more efficient grid, the historic April blackout across the Iberian Peninsula might have been avoided. Even Madrid\u2019s official report on the incident acknowledged that. Years of underinvestment \u2014 opposed by past governments in both countries \u2014 have left the power lines between France and Spain able to carry only about 3% of Iberian electricity demand each day. Although the blackout was primarily caused by unstable grid voltage and too few active gas plants, greater interconnection with France could have mitigated the crisis. Electricity generated by French nuclear plants could have instantly stabilized the Spanish network and balanced the outages.<\/p>\n

Terna\u2019s Ambitious Plans<\/strong><\/h3>\n

And what about Italy? The grid operator Terna has announced \u20ac23 billion in investments over the next decade. The high-voltage transmission network is a natural monopoly, managed by a state-controlled company \u2014 unlike local distribution networks, where greater competition in awarding contracts would be desirable.<\/p>\n

By the end of the decade, new submarine cables will strengthen links between the major islands and the mainland, as well as between Abruzzo and Marche. By 2034, a new Adriatic backbone will increase north\u2013south transfer capacity, and the first phase of an interconnection line between Italy and Greece will be completed.<\/p>\n

The development plan is ambitious: 39 gigawatts of interregional exchange capacity (up from today\u2019s 16), and a 40% increase in cross-border transmission capacity. Projects on the table involve Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, Montenegro, and Greece. Yet approval times remain extremely long: for the Tyrrhenian Link \u2014 the submarine cable connecting Sicily, Sardinia, and Campania \u2014 the authorization process began in 2021, with completion expected in 2028.<\/p>\n

The Costs That Drive Up the Bill<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Investment is essential for the energy transition \u2014 but someone will have to foot the bill. That someone will be mostly consumers, through their electricity bills, or taxpayers, through general taxation. In Italy, transmission charges already account for nearly 20% of the total bill. Across Europe, according to the EU regulator, costs for households and businesses are expected to rise by about 60% by mid-century. Network charges will become one of the main components of the final price of electricity.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At the same time, costs tied to renewable subsidies \u2014 through so-called \u201ccontracts for difference\u201d that guarantee fixed long-term prices \u2014 will also rise. In Italy alone, in 2024, the European Commission authorized over \u20ac35 billion for this purpose. Conversely, thanks to grid upgrades and growing contributions from solar and wind, the cost of the raw commodity is expected to fall.<\/p>\n

Because the rising cost components concern sectors under public monopoly (such as transmission) or directly regulated by authorities (such as renewable incentives), extreme caution and efficiency will be needed to prevent the promised savings from renewables from turning into yet another increase on consumers\u2019 bills.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lorenzo Borga is an economic journalist at Sky TG24 and a contributor to Il Foglio and ISPI.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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