{"id":10749,"date":"2025-11-14T17:47:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T16:47:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=10749"},"modified":"2025-11-14T17:47:02","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T16:47:02","slug":"military-spending-that-accelerates-innovation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/11\/14\/military-spending-that-accelerates-innovation\/","title":{"rendered":"Military Spending That Accelerates Innovation"},"content":{"rendered":"

From the Apollo Program to the fight against Covid-19, history\u2014especially American history\u2014teaches that public spending on defense, healthcare, or space exploration does not in itself transform a country. Productivity growth, the creation of new industries, and broad improvements in citizens\u2019 lives occur when resources are directed toward innovation. It is a lesson that Europe should pay particular attention to as it prepares to allocate a non-negligible share of national budgets\u2014and potentially of the EU budget\u2014to security. Without technological advancement, simply increasing military spending will not become a platform for growth capable of helping Europe recover the ground it has lost to other economies.<\/em><\/p>\n

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In the 1960s, the United States launched itself into the space race. The Apollo Program, championed by John F. Kennedy, did more than take humans to the Moon. It generated a series of technological innovations that today we take for granted: from solar panels to micro-cameras, from composite materials to GPS navigation. These breakthroughs did not only serve astronauts\u2014they quickly entered the daily lives of millions of people, transforming entire industrial sectors.<\/p>\n

A few decades earlier, during the Second World War, the need for secure communications pushed the English mathematician Alan Turing and his team to decipher the Nazi Enigma code. From that challenge emerged the first programmable computers, paving the way for modern computing. An immediate military objective thus turned into a technological leap that would forever change civilian society.<\/p>\n

A more recent example comes from the Covid-19 pandemic. In just a few months, thanks to massive public investments (for example in Germany) and collaboration with private companies (for example Pfizer), research on mRNA succeeded in producing life-saving vaccines. That same technology now offers the prospect of new treatments for diseases such as cancer and malaria.<\/p>\n

The lesson common to all these cases is clear: public spending\u2014whether directed at defense, health, or space\u2014made a difference because it transformed the urgency of solving a problem into new technologies, and it was guided by major innovation goals: true missions capable of generating benefits far beyond their original purpose.<\/p>\n

Why \u201cMore Military Spending\u201d Is Not Enough<\/strong><\/h3>\n

When a country has to react to external threats or geopolitical tensions, the most immediate response is often to increase the defense budget. From an economic standpoint, however, if the additional resources are devoted mainly to recruiting personnel or purchasing conventional armaments, the impact remains limited. Several studies document that, historically, the short-term economic return\u2014that is, the increase in GDP generated by each additional euro spent on defense\u2014ranges between 60 cents and one euro: the so-called \u201cmultiplier.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such a modest return stems from the fact that weapons have a short useful life and rapidly become obsolete in a constantly evolving technological environment. Moreover, modern military production (and, more broadly, manufacturing) is now highly automated and does not generate a significant number of new jobs. The result is spending that may strengthen national security in the immediate term but does not change the country\u2019s productive structure nor raise the average quality of employment.<\/p>\n

In other words, raising defense spending without a clear innovation strategy is akin to building hospitals without adequately trained doctors or without the necessary technologies: you improve the visible infrastructure, but you do not address the underlying structural problems, and so overall productivity does not grow.<\/p>\n

It Is Innovation That Makes the Difference<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A very different picture emerges when public spending is directed toward research and development. In this case, long-run multipliers can reach values between 1.2 and 2. In other words, one euro invested in innovation-oriented defense projects can generate up to two additional euros of GDP over the years. This is due to productivity gains and technological spillovers that affect multiple sectors.<\/p>\n

The figure below, taken from my recent work with Juan Antolin-Diaz, shows this dynamic clearly for the United States. The multiplier of military spending grows over time: from modest values in the first quarters after the investment, it rises above one euro after six years and doubles within fifteen years. This trajectory reflects the fact that productivity and innovation effects take time to manifest\u2014often well beyond the length of a political term\u2014but once triggered, they produce lasting consequences for the economy.<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

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Other empirical studies using international data show that a 10% increase in public spending on military research and development is associated, on average, with a 5% increase in private investment: a significant \u201ccrowding-in\u201d effect that amplifies the initial stimulus. The main reason is that public commitment guarantees a large and reliable demand for every new solution capable of addressing the government\u2019s mission, thus stimulating the creativity and efficiency of the private sector.<\/p>\n

The Dual Use of Technologies<\/strong><\/h3>\n

An additional factor that expands the results and positive effects of initial investments is the very nature of many technologies, which often turn out to be dual-use\u2014that is, with both military and civilian applications. Just think of GPS, born as a military navigation tool and today essential for logistics, precision agriculture, and urban transport. Or of the internet, developed in the United States thanks to DARPA, the Pentagon\u2019s research agency, and later becoming the backbone of the global economy. Even drones, originally conceived for military operations, are now used in sectors ranging from rapid deliveries to rescue missions. And even the Manhattan Project, which during World War II culminated in the construction of the atomic bomb, paved the way for the civilian use of nuclear energy as a clean source of power.<\/p>\n

Dual-use technologies are therefore extremely valuable, but their immediate civilian application should not become an obsession, as often happens among European governments seeking to justify defense investments. American history shows that, in the vast majority of cases, technologies developed for military purposes succeeded in everyday life only after achieving their original objective.<\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s Real Problem<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Let us leave the United States for a moment and turn to Europe. Overall, the European Union does not spend little on defense: in recent years several member states have raised their budgets to exceed NATO targets (as discussed in the May issue of eco<\/em>, editor\u2019s note). The problem is not the amount of resources but their use. Purchases are fragmented and often duplicated across member states. This is evident even in support for Ukraine: while Washington delivered a single tank model and two types of howitzers to Kyiv, European countries supplied seven different tanks and nine types of howitzers.<\/p>\n

Such a situation is not only economically inefficient but also hinders the development of a common and competitive industrial base. In addition, European defense spending is poorly oriented toward innovation: too often funds go to large, established companies operating in a low-competition environment with little incentive to experiment with new solutions. The participation of start-ups and innovative SMEs remains marginal, while the venture capital available for high-tech projects in the sector is very limited (see also Giorgio Presidente\u2019s article in the August issue, editor\u2019s note).<\/p>\n

The figure below shows the share of venture capital investments in defense in the United States and in the European Union. In the US the level is much higher and spread across a large number of companies, including innovative start-ups and small and medium-sized firms. In Europe, by contrast, investments remain scarce, concentrated in a few countries\u2014such as Germany\u2014and among a small number of operators.<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The difference is not accidental. In the United States, public spending is often structured to stimulate competition and encourage the entry of new actors\u2014especially start-ups\u2014thereby creating a continuous flow of ideas and innovations. In Europe, instead, much of the funding continues to support large, established firms, with the dual effect of reducing innovation incentives and leaving little space for new entrants.<\/p>\n

The current risk is that much of the new defense funding from European governments ends up reinforcing \u201cnational champions\u201d that are not particularly innovative, instead of fostering a dynamic ecosystem. In other words, greater coordination among national governments is needed to stimulate competition in the market for ideas. American history shows clearly that to truly ignite innovation, it is essential to encourage the participation of start-ups.<\/p>\n

\u201cButter or Guns\u201d Is a False Dilemma<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The supposed trade-off between national security and economic prosperity is, in reality, a false dilemma. There is no unavoidable opposition between the two goals, provided that public spending is directed toward innovation projects capable of generating widespread benefits.<\/p>\n

If Europe succeeds in turning a significant share of defense spending into a driver of research and development, it will be able to strengthen its security. And at the same time, it will be able to close the productivity gap with more dynamic economies\u2014a gap that has widened significantly over the past thirty years. But this requires a clear strategic choice: using every euro not to preserve the past, but to build the future.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Paolo Surico is Professor of Economics at the London Business School, a CEPR member, and an adviser to many international policy institutions and central banks, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the European Commission.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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