{"id":10752,"date":"2025-11-14T17:53:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T16:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=10752"},"modified":"2025-11-14T17:53:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T16:53:00","slug":"europe-is-rearming-at-a-golden-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/11\/14\/europe-is-rearming-at-a-golden-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe Is Rearming at a Golden Price"},"content":{"rendered":"

Europe has begun a massive rearmament effort, investing hundreds of billions of euros, but risks seeing those resources turn into inefficiencies rather than security. The production capacity of the defense industry is in fact limited, fragmented, and poorly integrated, with national markets that are closed and tightly controlled by governments. The result is rising prices, which in some sectors have even doubled compared to the pre-war period. Among the reasons are the costs of raw materials, the fact that each European state focuses on its own armament, and the market power of the industry. In the long term, economies of scale and new investments could curb costs, but much will depend on political choices: only an efficient European single market will be able to turn public funds into real deterrent capacity.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Europe wants to rearm, and to do so it has committed hundreds of billions of euros of taxpayers\u2019 money. Yet a large part of this money may ultimately be wasted, failing to make the continent any safer. The massive refinancing of defense spending has not been accompanied by a comparably important increase in production capacity. The result: excess demand, materializing in longer delivery times and\u2014inevitably\u2014higher prices.<\/p>\n

An Industry Unlike Any Other<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This is a well-known mechanism in economics: when prices rise, demand tends to fall or supply to grow, re-establishing equilibrium. But the European defense industry is not a market like the others. A drop in demand is nowhere on the horizon, supply is rigid and fragmented across poorly integrated national markets, the sector is not subject to the same antitrust rules as others, and it is tightly controlled by governments. All this makes the market less efficient and risks prolonging price increases. And time is the scarcest resource for Europe, if it is true that according to intelligence services in several countries Russia could be able to attack the Baltics by 2030. It is no coincidence that the U.S. general in charge of military operations in Europe has called \u201cthe question of the elasticity of the industrial base the greatest strategic issue of the next 10\u201315 years.\u201d It is hard to disagree: the increase in public defense funds that European taxpayers of today and tomorrow are asked to finance must translate into a concrete strengthening of deterrent capacities, not inefficiencies and inflated profit margins for industry.<\/p>\n

In this article we focus on the land domain, where Europe has long been an industrial reference hub: a sector that receded after the end of the Cold War, but is now once again central in the procurement plans of the armed forces.<\/p>\n

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Defense Getting More and More Expensive<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Transparency on the purchase prices of weapons systems is limited, for obvious reasons. Among the countries publishing the most data are Germany and the United Kingdom, at the center of the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker, which monitors major military equipment purchases from 2020 to today. Some cases are particularly noteworthy: in November 2020, the Bundeswehr\u2014the German armed forces\u2014acquired several thousand rounds of ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks at about \u20ac1,700 each. A few months after the invasion of Ukraine, it ordered a new batch, but at a price almost 20% higher. Land vehicles have also become more expensive. In 2021, Germany ordered 50 new Puma infantry fighting vehicles; a bureaucratic hiccup delayed the signing, so the price was revised and updated to account for inflation, which in the meantime\u2014due to the war in Ukraine\u2014had reached 12.8%. A delay that cost German taxpayers a hefty \u20ac138 million. According to a manager at a major Italian defense company who asked to remain anonymous, since 2022 the price lists of Italian land vehicles have increased by 30\u201340%. Even more marked increases have occurred for ammunition. A 155 mm shell produced in Europe, of which millions of units are required for NATO\u2019s howitzers, has gone from about \u20ac2,000 before the Russian invasion to about \u20ac4,000. For comparison, in Russia\u2014now a full wartime economy\u2014the cost is around \u20ac1,000.<\/p>\n

The Reasons Behind the Price Increases<\/strong><\/h3>\n

To understand whether this is a temporary phenomenon or a new equilibrium, it is necessary to analyze the causes of the sharp inflation.<\/p>\n

Initially the spike in prices was driven by raw materials: aluminum, steel, titanium, and tungsten reached record highs immediately after the outbreak of the war, then fell but stabilized at levels still above the historical average. Energy costs also contributed to pushing prices upward. The same goes for qualified labor: mechanical and electronic engineers have become almost impossible to find in most European countries, and the search for skilled manual workers is almost as difficult.<\/p>\n

Explosive materials\u2014essential for shells and missiles\u2014deserve separate discussion. Prices of nitrates and fuels have never stopped rising: until three years ago a kilo of made-in-Europe TNT cost on average \u20ac3.50; two years ago it cost \u20ac6; today it is close to \u20ac15. The price has therefore more than tripled, mainly for two reasons. First: China, the main supplier until 2021, has blocked deliveries to European companies, which are now seeking alternatives in India and Australia. Second: explosive production in Europe has not increased since 2022; newly announced chemical plants will materialize only in the coming years, slowed by cautious environmental regulations and high energy costs. It is also a market controlled by very few companies: even today, the entire continent depends on a single TNT factory, located in Poland.<\/p>\n

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The second factor fueling price increases is the fragmentation of the European industry. The single market is not so \u201csingle\u201d when it comes to weapons systems (as we documented in the May issue of eco<\/em>, editor\u2019s note). National governments, and by extension their armed forces, are still too often victims of a home bias in equipment procurement. According to the Kiel Institute, only 16% of orders issued by Germany do not involve German manufacturing companies, and in the United Kingdom the share drops to just 3%. National markets remain mostly sealed compartments, with very few examples of pan-European companies. The reasons lie primarily in security concerns\u2014or rather mistrust: states want to maintain national control over technologies and know-how. In doing so, however, they restrict production capacity, generating duplication and overlap. Politics also matters: the sector is tightly controlled by governments, often simultaneously clients and shareholders of the producing companies, whose interest is to develop jobs in their own territory in order to strengthen political support. It is clear that this environment does not promote efficient resource use nor the achievement of economies of scale that could reduce costs.<\/p>\n

In addition, price increases are accelerated by the rearmament plan itself: policies encouraging purchases of made-in-EU equipment have an initially inflationary effect. The goal is to build a solid and self-sufficient industrial base, but at the price of a hefty bill for taxpayers.<\/p>\n

The third factor contributing to rising prices is the market power of industry. Today armies are buying at any cost. \u201cPrice competition in Europe has disappeared,\u201d says the CEO of an Italian defense company who prefers to remain anonymous. \u201cThere are fewer and fewer regulated tenders, and what matters to clients is speed and certainty of delivery times, even at the cost of signing more expensive contracts.\u201d<\/p>\n

The most discussed company in this regard is Germany\u2019s Rheinmetall, a publicly traded firm that produces tanks, infantry vehicles, howitzers, air defense systems, and especially medium- and large-caliber ammunition. A few days before the invasion of Ukraine it was worth just over \u20ac4 billion on the stock exchange; this year it nearly reached \u20ac100 billion. Profit margins followed the same trend, reaching an exceptional 28.4% in the ammunition segment. A surge that worries those who fear that rearmament plans will end up enriching defense companies.<\/p>\n

What is the recipe for its success? More than any other company, Rheinmetall has managed to expand its production capacity quickly and at low cost: it has opened new plants, automated large parts of production, and acquired rival companies. It did not wait for public funds but invested its own capital, going from producing 70,000 artillery rounds per year to 700,000\u2014almost half of what the entire European Union aims to produce. Record results that the company attributes to economies of scale generated by growing production volumes: greater efficiency allows Rheinmetall to offer lower prices and more reliable delivery times compared to competitors, with much lower internal costs. \u201cThey have managed to secure a dominant position with investment and skill, and now they are leveraging it,\u201d comments a source interviewed by eco<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Will Prices Fall?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

European rearmament is not a flash in the pan. Orders from the armed forces are accelerating, driven by the German rearmament effort. Rheinmetall alone boasts a backlog of \u20ac63 billion, Italy\u2019s Leonardo \u20ac45 billion, and the UK\u2019s BAE Systems nearly \u20ac90 billion. Sooner or later, this sustained and persistent demand will produce its effects, stimulating new supply-side investments and thus slowing price growth. According to the Financial Times<\/em>, European plants producing ammunition and missiles are expanding at a rate three times higher than before the war. The approach has changed: no longer just-in-time production, but maintaining an always-active industrial base. As volumes increase, economies of scale will reduce costs, although political fragmentation will continue to slow progress. Falling prices will also be helped by competitors catching up on Rheinmetall\u2019s production delays, which will reduce part of the market power it has accumulated.<\/p>\n

Early signs are already visible\u2014at least in the land domain. The sharp rise in orders for tanks, infantry vehicles, and artillery \u201cwill reduce prices, not increase them,\u201d Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told the Financial Times<\/em>. And indeed economies of scale are easier to achieve for armored and tracked vehicles, thanks to the difficulties facing the civilian automotive sector: car factories can be converted to military vehicle production, leveraging overlapping engineering and mechanical expertise. Achieving the same efficiency in the ammunition sector, however, is more complex for the reasons already discussed: according to the managers interviewed for this article, prices here will not fall any time soon.<\/p>\n

And in Italy?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Italy finds itself in a particular position, characterized by more pervasive state intervention in the defense sector than elsewhere. The two main players, Leonardo and Fincantieri, are in fact controlled by the Ministry of Economy and Finance. This generates two opposing effects. On one hand, public control reinforces the tendency of the client\u2014the state\u2014to award orders to Italian companies (also state-controlled, and which pay part of their dividends to the state). Such structural domestic preference tends to raise costs. On the other hand, the ambiguous position of institutions also produces the opposite effect. A source from Leonardo\u2019s management calls it a \u201ccustom\u201d between companies and government: the fact that both buyer and seller ultimately report to the executive facilitates cooperation. Companies thus obtain (almost) guaranteed order flows, while the Ministry of Defense manages to secure more favorable economic conditions\u2014albeit at the cost of weapon systems that are sometimes less efficient than market standards.<\/p>\n

A telling example dates back to the 1990s, an industrial source recounts, when the Italian Army chose to acquire the Dardo infantry fighting vehicle, developed specifically by an Italian consortium. It was preferred over the American Bradley, combat-proven in the Gulf War and produced in thousands of units. The decision also responded to the need to keep Italian plants active, which at the time lacked orders. A manager who worked on the project says that the Dardo\u2019s development occurred with \u201cvery tight margins\u201d for the Italian consortium involved.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, one simple fact remains: the war in Ukraine has forced Europe to rearm. But how much will our security cost? The price to be paid will depend on the industrial and political choices governments decide to adopt today: from opening new plants with quicker procedures, to promoting cross-border mergers and acquisitions, to giving up national champions in order to build a true European single market. It will be equally essential to ensure compliance with competition rules in the sector. On these decisions depends the price\u2014not only economic\u2014that citizens will be called upon to bear to guarantee the continent\u2019s security.<\/p>\n

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Lorenzo Borga is an economic journalist at Sky TG24 and a contributor to Il Foglio and ISPI.<\/em><\/p>\n

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