{"id":10906,"date":"2025-11-21T12:01:08","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T11:01:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=10906"},"modified":"2025-11-21T12:01:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T11:01:08","slug":"where-housing-is-a-luxury-for-the-few","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/11\/21\/where-housing-is-a-luxury-for-the-few\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Housing Is a Luxury for the Few"},"content":{"rendered":"

Public opinion perceives that home prices have risen. Yet publications on Italy\u2019s housing market do not reflect this widespread impression and do not seem to register any particular difficulties. That\u2019s because they rely on regional averages. But overall data often hide more complex realities. For this reason, a new index proves useful\u2014one that measures housing affordability at the municipal level, that is, the percentage of a typical household\u2019s income needed to pay a mortgage on a standard home. What emerges is a divided Italy: in major urban centers and tourist areas, buying a home requires devoting more than 30% of net household income to monthly mortgage payments. In several areas this figure reaches 40\u201350%. Where housing is cheaper, opportunities for work and study are fewer. For single-income families and single individuals, becoming homeowners is still a distant dream.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Italy is a country of homeowners. At first glance, one might think that the real estate market has few critical issues. But statistics tell only part of the story, behind which lies a complex geography\u2014varying between cities and neighborhoods\u2014where housing supply often fails to keep pace with demand.<\/p>\n

Access to housing is not just an economic issue. For many young people, it represents the possibility of becoming independent and building an autonomous life. Yet today that goal seems increasingly out of reach, especially in cities offering the greatest opportunities for work and study. There, prices have risen faster than incomes, employment contracts are often precarious, and the down payment required for a mortgage has become a barrier many cannot overcome.<\/p>\n

The Italian Housing Market<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Data collected by our think tank portray an Italy that, on average, is still a country of homeowners: nearly three-quarters of families live in a home they own. But the picture hides deep divides. One data point is particularly striking: over the past twenty years, the homeownership rate among people under 35 has dropped by ten percentage points\u2014from 73% to 63%\u2014while for older age groups it has even increased (figure below). In other words, young people are falling behind, squeezed between stagnant incomes and rising home prices, and thus forced to fall back on renting.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Between 2004 and 2021, per-square-meter sale values increased by 20\u201330%, with even higher peaks for premium properties. The opposite has happened to the average income of those under 35, which has slightly decreased compared to 2004. When incomes grow more slowly than prices, the housing market becomes less accessible.<\/p>\n

Yet official data, based on regional averages, long painted a reassuring picture, suggesting that Italy had no real housing-access problem. But what happens if, instead of looking at averages, we analyze the situation municipality by municipality\u2014or even neighborhood by neighborhood?<\/p>\n

An Index Built on Municipal Data<\/strong><\/h3>\n

To answer this question, we at Tortuga developed the Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The index calculates the percentage of household income that would be absorbed by the mortgage payment required to buy a mid-sized home in a specific municipality. By convention, a threshold of 30% of income is considered the maximum sustainable limit: exceeding it means being in a situation of housing stress.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Housing Affordability Index<\/strong><\/p>\n

The index compares a standard mortgage payment with the average disposable household income in a given municipality. To do this, we estimated a realistic mortgage payment, starting from the average price per square meter of homes in that municipality and applying the financing conditions (average interest rate, principal share, and duration in years) by macro-area (North-East, North-West, Center, South, and Islands). Using municipal-level tax-return data, we estimated net individual disposable income. We then multiplied that by the average number of income earners per family in the same municipality, obtaining a reliable estimate of actual household resources. The ratio between these two values\u2014a payment based on local prices and an income based on local data\u2014gives us a precise measure of housing stress.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Our approach overcomes regional-level analyses by using municipal-level data. This allows the problem to be examined in a way more suitable for designing public policies, since a family living and working in Milan gains no benefit from prices being lower in a small peripheral town.<\/p>\n

Municipalities and Cities Where Housing Is Unaffordable<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The results show a patchwork Italy. Although the country appears accessible on average, the reality is that over 40% of the Italian population lives in municipalities where the 30% threshold is exceeded. The most critical areas are major urban centers, their surrounding suburbs, and high-tourism zones\u2014from the Romagna Riviera to the Sardinian coasts. Here the index reaches\u2014and often exceeds\u201440% or 50%. By contrast, inland and Apennine areas are much more affordable, but they also offer fewer job and service opportunities. The housing issue affects both North and South, mainly due to differences in available incomes and the number of income earners per household.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

The most inaccessible municipalities in Italy are Naples (with an HAI of 53%), Florence (52%), and Venice (48%). They are followed by Rome (43%) and Milan (42%). But the roots of the problem differ: while Milan and Florence suffer mainly from astronomical housing prices, the main obstacle in Naples is the comparatively low average household income. Surprisingly, Turin, with an HAI of 27%, is relatively accessible.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

If we narrow the scope further and calculate the Housing Affordability Index for individual neighborhoods in major cities, Naples and Rome emerge as two of the most inaccessible. This is especially true when considering distances, public transport coverage, and the quality of road connections. From this perspective, Milan and Bologna benefit from good links between the city center and areas where the housing market is more affordable.<\/p>\n

The picture, moreover, does not take into account a crucial factor: the down payment. To buy a home in Milan, for example, a household needs on average \u20ac130,000 in equity to obtain a mortgage\u2014a prohibitive amount for most families. Florence, Bologna, and Rome also require high financial availability, averaging between \u20ac90,000 and \u20ac110,000. In Naples, Verona, and Padua, the average down payment is instead around \u20ac60,000.<\/p>\n

Families Are Not All the Same<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The results become even more alarming when different household types are considered. So far we have spoken of the \u201caverage household,\u201d but in reality families vary widely in size and, above all, in the number of income earners.<\/p>\n

For single-income families (a single person or a couple with only one salary), buying a home in Italy\u2019s major cities is practically impossible. In Milan, Rome, Bologna, and Naples, purchasing a suitably sized home would require allocating between 60% and 70% of income to the mortgage. Even in Turin, the most accessible city, the index for such households exceeds the critical 30% threshold. The situation improves, but is not resolved, for dual-income households. In Bologna and Rome the index is around 30%, while in Milan and Naples it exceeds this level: even with two incomes, buying a home remains financially challenging.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Data Are Needed to Make Decisions<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Italy\u2019s housing problem is real and localized. It is not a uniform phenomenon but one that affects specific places and groups: major urban centers, young people, single individuals, and families that cannot count on two solid incomes. National averages have long masked a crisis that is obvious at the local level.<\/p>\n

Our analysis demonstrates the urgency of equipping policymakers with more refined tools. Without detailed data and continuous local monitoring, any housing policy risks being ineffective. To help those excluded from the market, generic solutions are not enough; what is needed are targeted interventions capable of capturing the deep differences that characterize our country.<\/p>\n

Policies to expand housing supply\u2014through new construction, redevelopment programs, and tackling vacant properties\u2014are essential to reducing price pressures. At the same time, in cities already marked by high urban density, mobility-related interventions become crucial: improving and simplifying daily travel from less central neighborhoods means integrating them more fully into the urban fabric and the labor market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tortuga is a think tank of students, researchers, and professionals in economics and the social sciences. It works alongside institutions and policymakers to help create a better Italy. It has over 50 members under 30, based in Italy and around the world. The authors who worked on this article are Michele Olmi and Francesca Scalfi.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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