{"id":12415,"date":"2026-03-17T19:09:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T18:09:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=12415"},"modified":"2026-03-17T19:09:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T18:09:58","slug":"when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/","title":{"rendered":"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game"},"content":{"rendered":"

In 2025, the Italian banking system became a large political-financial construction site, where mergers and acquisitions appear driven more by power dynamics than by industrial strategies. At the center stands the MPS\u2013Mediobanca deal, promoted and steered by the government to influence the balance of power in Generali and to build a third banking pole under indirect public control. The industrial rationale is weak, while the influence of Delfin and Caltagirone grows alongside concerns about hidden agreements and regulatory intervention. Strong uptake of the offer opens uncertain scenarios for Mediobanca and market stability. Meanwhile, the Banco BPM case and the government\u2019s blocking of UniCredit have ended up favoring France\u2019s Cr\u00e9dit Agricole, revealing a confused strategy. The \u201cfilm\u201d of Italy\u2019s banking takeover game remains unfinished, suspended between political ambitions, fragile balances, and questions about the future of Italian capitalism. <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The year 2025 has been particularly intense in terms of bank consolidation\u2014the so-called banking takeover game<\/em> (risiko bancario<\/em>). The process has unfolded like a serialized film, whose most significant episode has been the acquisition of Mediobanca by Monte dei Paschi di Siena: a surprising and highly questionable operation that appears driven more by power considerations than by a clear industrial strategy.<\/p>\n

The film has been directed by the government. It is no secret that the ultimate goal of the MPS\u2013Mediobanca deal is control over Assicurazioni Generali. The government sought to prevent the agreement between Italy\u2019s largest insurance company and the French asset manager Natixis, which had been under negotiation by Generali\u2019s management\u2014and ultimately succeeded. In December, the two potential partners announced they were abandoning the deal because \u201cthe conditions were not in place\u201d\u2014in other words, because the Italian government had intervened to block it.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the government aims to build a third banking group, alongside Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit, under its influence. This could emerge either from the MPS\u2013Mediobanca group or from Banco BPM. So far, however, the government\u2019s strategy has appeared uncertain and fragmented. The ending of this \u201cfilm,\u201d which may unfold during 2026, remains unwritten.<\/p>\n

A Story Where Power Prevails over Industrial Logic<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The industrial rationale behind the MPS\u2013Mediobanca deal is far from obvious. The two institutions have fundamentally different business models. Monte dei Paschi is a traditional commercial bank, focused on deposit-taking and lending to households and small and medium-sized enterprises\u2014the classic retail banking model. Mediobanca, by contrast, has historically been an investment bank and only recently has begun expanding into retail services, leveraging its brand and expertise in wealth management.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the potential for branch network rationalization is limited due to their different geographic footprints: MPS is traditionally strong in central Italy, while Mediobanca is more deeply rooted in the North.<\/p>\n

If the industrial logic is unclear, the power logic is much more evident. In terms of ownership, the deal allows MPS\u2019s two main shareholders\u2014Delfin and the Caltagirone group\u2014to extend their influence over Mediobanca and, indirectly, over Generali.<\/p>\n

By combining their direct stakes in Generali\u201410 percent for Delfin and 6.5 percent for Caltagirone\u2014with Mediobanca\u2019s 13 percent stake, their overall influence in the insurance giant has grown significantly, approaching 30 percent.<\/p>\n

The coordinated action of Delfin, Caltagirone, and MPS management was widely evident, prompting the judiciary to open an investigation into the possibility of a hidden agreement aimed at orchestrating the takeover of Mediobanca without proper market disclosure. This would have allowed them to avoid launching a costly mandatory takeover bid. Only the market regulator, Consob, appeared unconvinced, stating that there was no evidence of coordination.<\/p>\n

Two Possible Paths for Mediobanca<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What the deal\u2019s architects did not anticipate was the extent of market participation in MPS\u2019s offer. The initial goal\u2014supported by Delfin, Caltagirone, and the government (itself a shareholder in MPS)\u2014was to turn Mediobanca into a subsidiary of MPS.<\/p>\n

However, with acceptance reaching 86 percent of Mediobanca\u2019s capital\u2014far above expectations\u2014two scenarios have emerged. The first involves the full integration of Mediobanca into MPS, leading to its delisting. This would be costly for MPS, which would need to acquire the remaining 14 percent of shares, and undesirable from a systemic perspective, as it would remove a highly reputable institution from financial markets.<\/p>\n

The second scenario envisages Mediobanca remaining within the MPS group while retaining significant operational autonomy in its core businesses\u2014corporate finance, trading, private banking, and asset management. The hope is that MPS management will opt for this second solution.<\/p>\n

Spotlight on Generali<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Turning to Generali, the two industrial shareholders\u2014Caltagirone and Delfin\u2014have, through the MPS\u2013Mediobanca axis, come close to controlling 30 percent of the company. This places them in a strong position to reshape its governance at the next shareholders\u2019 meeting.<\/p>\n

If this scenario materializes, a substantial part of Italian capitalism\u2014the MPS\u2013Mediobanca banking group and Generali\u2014would fall under the control of two large private industrial shareholders. This is hardly an encouraging prospect for the national economic system. Even the current government may find it excessive, potentially prompting it to seek another strong partner for Generali.<\/p>\n

However, the two main candidates\u2014Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit\u2014have so far declined, possibly wary of becoming entangled in a complex and opaque situation.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the two largest Italian banking groups have followed very different strategies. Intesa Sanpaolo has focused on organic growth, acting cautiously and in alignment with political authorities. UniCredit, under CEO Andrea Orcel, has taken a more confrontational approach, challenging governments in both Italy (with Banco BPM) and Germany (with Commerzbank). In both cases, the outcome was unfavorable, confirming that governments remain unwilling to relinquish influence over the ownership structure of the financial system\u2014despite frequent rhetoric about respecting \u201cmarket operations.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Role of Golden Power<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Looking at the other potential banking hub centered on Banco BPM, the role of MPS emerges once again. In November 2024, through an unusual procedure\u2014also subject to judicial investigation\u2014the Ministry of Economy and Finance placed a 15 percent stake in MPS with just four investors: Banco BPM, Anima SGR (part of the Banco BPM group), and once again Delfin and Caltagirone. The operation was handled by Banca Akros, also part of the Banco BPM group.<\/p>\n

Shortly afterward, UniCredit launched a takeover bid for Banco BPM, only to withdraw it in July 2025 after a prolonged standoff with the government, citing legal risks associated with the use of golden power<\/em>. The government justified its intervention on national security grounds, claiming a threat from a \u201cforeign\u201d bank acquiring an Italian one. This reasoning surprised many observers and drew criticism from the European Commission.<\/p>\n

In reality, UniCredit\u2014despite its international shareholder base\u2014is clearly an Italian bank, headquartered in Milan with Italian governance. The government\u2019s heavy-handed intervention produced a paradoxical outcome: it paved the way for the French group Cr\u00e9dit Agricole. With a stake exceeding 20 percent, it is now the dominant shareholder of Banco BPM, and has recently doubled its representation on the board.<\/p>\n

A striking outcome: in the name of \u201cItalianness,\u201d the government blocked an Italian bank, only to favor a French one.<\/p>\n

How will this situation evolve? It remains unclear. The future of this important bank is now tied to the government\u2019s ambiguous strategy and the inertia of its current management. One can only hope that the French shareholder has a clearer vision.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Angelo Baglioni is Professor of Political Economy at Universit\u00e0 Cattolica of Milan. He is Director of the Monetary Observatory and an editor of lavoce.info. He has been a member of the Banking Stakeholder Group of the European Banking Authority. He has published extensively in international journals and books; his latest is Monetary Policy Implementation (Palgrave, 2024).<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In 2025, the Italian banking system became a large political-financial construction site, where mergers and acquisitions appear driven more by power dynamics than by industrial […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12305,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[331],"class_list":["post-12415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhen Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In 2025, the Italian banking system became a large political-financial construction site, where mergers and acquisitions appear driven more by power dynamics than by industrial […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-17T18:09:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Angelo Baglioni\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Angelo Baglioni\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Angelo Baglioni\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2da7283dfcef99aa1cfd8655eb69e4f7\"},\"headline\":\"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-17T18:09:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1281,\"articleSection\":[\"Non categorizzato\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/\",\"name\":\"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game - Rivista Eco\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-17T18:09:58+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2da7283dfcef99aa1cfd8655eb69e4f7\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/17\\\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Rivista Eco\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2da7283dfcef99aa1cfd8655eb69e4f7\",\"name\":\"Angelo Baglioni\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/5d0cc73f95a267f3ff6aa59b6b54f1024b857c56d595a7c030516772e4456e6e?s=96&d=mm&r=ge846f6494ff1b9d35cce85535896d32b\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/5d0cc73f95a267f3ff6aa59b6b54f1024b857c56d595a7c030516772e4456e6e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/5d0cc73f95a267f3ff6aa59b6b54f1024b857c56d595a7c030516772e4456e6e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Angelo Baglioni\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/author\\\/abaglioni\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game - Rivista Eco","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game - Rivista Eco","og_description":"In 2025, the Italian banking system became a large political-financial construction site, where mergers and acquisitions appear driven more by power dynamics than by industrial […]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/","og_site_name":"Rivista Eco","article_published_time":"2026-03-17T18:09:58+00:00","author":"Angelo Baglioni","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Angelo Baglioni","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/"},"author":{"name":"Angelo Baglioni","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/2da7283dfcef99aa1cfd8655eb69e4f7"},"headline":"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game","datePublished":"2026-03-17T18:09:58+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/"},"wordCount":1281,"articleSection":["Non categorizzato"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/","name":"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game - Rivista Eco","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-03-17T18:09:58+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/2da7283dfcef99aa1cfd8655eb69e4f7"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/when-politics-enters-the-banking-takeover-game\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"When Politics Enters the Banking Takeover Game"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/","name":"Rivista Eco","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/2da7283dfcef99aa1cfd8655eb69e4f7","name":"Angelo Baglioni","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/5d0cc73f95a267f3ff6aa59b6b54f1024b857c56d595a7c030516772e4456e6e?s=96&d=mm&r=ge846f6494ff1b9d35cce85535896d32b","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/5d0cc73f95a267f3ff6aa59b6b54f1024b857c56d595a7c030516772e4456e6e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/5d0cc73f95a267f3ff6aa59b6b54f1024b857c56d595a7c030516772e4456e6e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Angelo Baglioni"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/author\/abaglioni\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12305"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12415"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12418,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12415\/revisions\/12418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12415"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=12415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}