{"id":12419,"date":"2026-03-17T19:13:56","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T18:13:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=12419"},"modified":"2026-03-17T19:13:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T18:13:56","slug":"rates-are-falling-but-mortgage-payments-are-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/rates-are-falling-but-mortgage-payments-are-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Rates Are Falling, but Mortgage Payments Are Not"},"content":{"rendered":"

The comparison between the European Central Bank\u2019s policy rates and the annual percentage rate of charge (APR) on mortgages shows that the decline in the cost of money has only partially translated into savings for households. The effective cost of new mortgages has remained high and has even been rising over the past year. <\/em><\/p>\n

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The chart compares the evolution of the European Central Bank\u2019s main refinancing rate and the average APR applied to new mortgages granted to Italian households between March 2022 and November 2025.<\/p>\n

The main refinancing rate is one of the ECB\u2019s key policy instruments used to control price dynamics in the euro area and thus serves as a benchmark for the entire market. In the chart, it represents the cost at which banks borrow money from the central bank. By contrast, the APR includes not only the interest rate charged by the bank but also all mandatory costs associated with the loan\u2014such as origination fees, appraisal costs, management fees, and required insurance\u2014thereby providing a comprehensive measure of the actual cost borne by borrowers.<\/p>\n

The gap between the two curves\u2014the shaded area in the chart\u2014captures the difference between the ECB\u2019s policy rate and the final cost of credit for households. This divergence suggests that monetary policy decisions are not currently being fully transmitted to the mortgage market. The rate increases initiated in July 2022, in response to rising living costs linked to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, were rapidly reflected in higher mortgage rates. However, no symmetrical downward adjustment has occurred since the ECB began cutting rates. On the contrary, since December 2024 mortgage costs have continued to rise, moving in clear contrast to official rates.<\/p>\n

The dynamics of the mortgage market are linked to the so-called \u201cstickiness\u201d of interest rates: borrowing costs tend to increase quickly when monetary policy tightens, but decline much more slowly when the cost of money falls. This phenomenon reflects both cyclical factors and pricing strategies adopted by banks.<\/p>\n

Among cyclical factors, a key role is played by the fact that most new mortgages are now fixed-rate and are linked to the IRS (interest rate swap), a long-term rate that depends less on short-term ECB decisions and more on market expectations about the future. At present, large-scale rearmament programs by governments and volatile U.S. economic policies are fueling expectations of medium-term inflation, and thus the possibility that the ECB may raise rates again. In addition, during periods of high uncertainty, difficulties in forecasting lead market participants to adopt a cautious stance, offering structurally higher rates to hedge against risks.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The comparison between the European Central Bank\u2019s policy rates and the annual percentage rate of charge (APR) on mortgages shows that the decline in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5737,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[40],"class_list":["post-12419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRates Are Falling, but Mortgage Payments Are Not - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/rates-are-falling-but-mortgage-payments-are-not\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rates Are Falling, but Mortgage Payments Are Not - 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