{"id":12431,"date":"2026-03-17T19:16:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T18:16:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=12431"},"modified":"2026-03-17T19:16:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T18:16:55","slug":"dont-call-them-windfall-profits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/03\/17\/dont-call-them-windfall-profits\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t Call Them Windfall Profits"},"content":{"rendered":"

After two failed attempts, the government has introduced, starting in 2026, a new tax burden on banks and insurance companies, expected to generate billions in public revenue. But the measure arrives in a changed context: banking profits no longer depend on ECB interest rates, but on a business model increasingly centered on financial intermediation and wealth management. While net interest income is declining, profits continue to grow, now driven by rising costs charged to customers. The risk is that the new tax will not truly affect banks, but will instead fall on savers, who are already burdened by some of the highest fees in Europe, in a market with limited competition and low financial literacy. <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

After two years of attempts, the government led by Giorgia Meloni has, on its third try, approved a new tax burden on the banking and insurance sector. The measure is expected to bring more than \u20ac4.5 billion into public coffers in 2026, covering about one-fifth of the budget law. Regardless of its merits, however, the intervention appears poorly timed: the so-called \u201cwindfall profits,\u201d described as \u201cunfair\u201d by Meloni, seem to have lost their extraordinary nature and become structural.<\/p>\n

The rationale behind taxing bank profits is well known. Following the European Central Bank\u2019s interest rate hikes between 2022 and 2023, lending rates for households and firms rose rapidly, while returns paid to depositors and savers remained close to zero. This widened the so-called net interest margin, which indeed ensured three years of strong results for Italian banks. But the context has changed, even if Italian policymakers seem slow to recognize it. While ECB rates have roughly halved since 2023, bank profits have not declined. On the contrary, they increased again in 2025 after record levels in previous years. Profits now appear less tied to restrictive monetary policy and more the result of structural profitability, reflecting a profound shift in the sector\u2019s business model.<\/p>\n

One, Two, Three: All Attempts to Tax Bank Profits<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Since the summer of 2023, Italian policymakers have debated taxes on so-called \u201cwindfall profits\u201d\u2014a term that has now become misleading\u2014but the banking sector had so far avoided significant additional burdens.<\/p>\n

Initially, with the 2024 budget law, the government attempted to introduce a tax on net interest income. However, the poorly designed measure\u2014announced one August evening by the Minister of Transport\u2014was effectively neutralized by allowing banks to set aside reserves instead of paying the tax. As a result, not a single euro was collected.<\/p>\n

A second attempt came with the following year\u2019s budget law, which effectively amounted to a loan from the banking sector to the state, achieved by postponing the tax benefits of certain deductions from 2025 to the period 2026\u20132028. This was an interest-free loan for the Treasury, unwelcome for the sector, but again without new taxes.<\/p>\n

On the third attempt, the government succeeded: from 2026, banks and insurance companies will pay higher taxes. The budget law introduces several measures, including a two-percentage-point increase in IRAP rates for three years and a 27.5 percent tax on capital set aside as reserves in 2024 following the earlier \u201cwindfall profits\u201d intervention. The package also includes, for the second consecutive year, the postponement of tax deductions on write-downs and other corporate costs, allowing the state to collect higher revenues in 2026 and 2027, which will be partially returned from 2029 onward. Additional, more marginal and temporary measures include the extraordinary revaluation of reserves and changes to the deductibility of loan write-downs.<\/p>\n

Overall, these measures will generate \u20ac4.7 billion in additional revenue in 2026 and \u20ac5.6 billion the following year. However, these are one-off revenues, set to expire within three years and to partially turn into higher expenditures from 2029 onward\u2014around \u20ac1 billion annually.<\/p>\n

Fees Matter More Than Interest Margins<\/strong><\/h3>\n

But do the economic conditions that justified such taxation still exist? Looking at the financial statements of Italy\u2019s major banks suggests otherwise. Data for the first nine months of 2025 for Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit, Banco BPM, BPER, and Monte dei Paschi di Siena paint a different picture from that described by the government majority.<\/p>\n

Net interest income is declining after three consecutive years of growth. For these five groups, the spread between lending and deposit rates generated about \u20ac28.5 billion in the first nine months of the year, down from \u20ac30 billion in the same period of 2024. Yet profits increased, reaching \u20ac21 billion compared to \u20ac19.7 billion the previous year.<\/p>\n

What explains this growth? Not cost reductions\u2014expenses have actually risen slightly. The key driver is fees. Account maintenance charges, wealth management fees, annual service charges, and variable costs have become an increasingly important source of revenue for Italian banks. In 2025, these revenues grew by 6 percent, with expectations of further increases in the coming years\u2014especially if financial markets continue to perform well, encouraging more investors to entrust their savings to banks.<\/p>\n

Carlo Messina, CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, stated clearly more than a year ago: \u201cFees are essential for us in a context where interest rates are declining and the contribution of net interest income is therefore shrinking.\u201d Similar remarks have been made by UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel: \u201cFees are key to maintaining sustained growth in a lower-rate environment.\u201d Financial results reflect the investments made by Italian banks in asset gathering, in-house wealth management, and the expansion of insurance activities.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is precisely why the government\u2019s intervention appears out of step. The data for 2025 show that banking profits are not \u201cwindfall profits,\u201d nor a temporary consequence of the fastest rate hikes in ECB history. Instead, they are structural and likely to persist\u2014and possibly increase. They therefore cannot be addressed through temporary and extraordinary measures, which risk distorting the market.<\/p>\n

If the government believes that profits in the banking and insurance sectors are excessive or unfair, it should instead strengthen competition policy. Increasing taxation in a context of stable profitability risks falling not on banks, but on customers, through what economists call tax shifting: the process by which those legally liable for a tax transfer part or all of its burden to others.<\/p>\n

As numerous studies have shown\u2014and as highlighted by the International Monetary Fund in its analysis of bank taxes in Europe\u2014higher taxes on banks often translate into higher fees for consumers. This is especially true in markets with limited competition and inelastic demand\u2014conditions that closely describe the Italian banking market, characterized by high entry barriers and low levels of financial literacy, as international rankings consistently show.<\/p>\n

Italian Savers Pay High Costs for Wealth Management<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The context in which fee income is growing should not be overlooked. According to an analysis by the CISL banking union, two-thirds of net fees are attributable to financial intermediation and wealth management activities. These are precisely the fees paid by Italian savers for managing their assets\u2014already among the highest in Europe, and likely in the Western world.<\/p>\n

According to a Morningstar report, average annual fees for actively managed funds domiciled in Italy were 1.5 percent in 2015, declining only slightly to just above 1.4 percent ten years later. This modest reduction stands in contrast to other countries: in Germany, fees fell from 1.4 to 1.25 percent; in France, from 1.5 to 1.1 percent; and in the United Kingdom, from 1.2 to 0.85 percent. Italian funds have therefore become the most expensive in Europe.<\/p>\n

Italian savers continue to face costly financial advice, often affected by conflicts of interest linked to so-called retrocessions\u2014payments made by asset management companies to intermediaries, often banking groups, that distribute their products. This creates incentives to promote the most profitable funds for banks rather than the most cost-effective ones for clients.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

The strategy of banks is clear. In a slow-growing economy with high levels of accumulated savings, such as Italy, it is rational to focus on financial intermediation and wealth management rather than traditional lending. Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti had already warned in 2024: \u201cIt is essential that banks remain the link between savings and investment needs\u2014a connection that risks being lost if banks move too far toward wealth management.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet only months later, the same government approved a tax increase that arrives too late and risks burdening not banks, but savers and investors\u2014already penalized by the highest fees in Europe.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lorenzo Borga is an economic journalist at Sky TG24 and a contributor to Il Foglio and ISPI.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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