{"id":12886,"date":"2026-04-21T16:16:41","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:16:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=12886"},"modified":"2026-04-21T16:16:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:16:41","slug":"detention-conditions-affect-recidivism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/04\/21\/detention-conditions-affect-recidivism\/","title":{"rendered":"Detention Conditions Affect Recidivism"},"content":{"rendered":"

The race to increase penalties and multiply offenses has dominated the debate on security for years, but the data tell a different story. In Italy, where between 40% and 60% of those arrested already have a prior conviction, the real key to containing crime is reducing recidivism. This is not an easy goal to achieve. However, two studies based on actual data show that dignified detention conditions\u2014capable of fostering responsibility and orienting inmates toward reintegration\u2014work better than punitive imprisonment. The experience of the \u201copen\u201d facility in Bollate and that of women-only institutions point to significant reductions in reoffending. This is not leniency toward those who commit crimes, but a search for effective solutions: treating punishment as rehabilitation makes us safer, reduces social costs, and gives substance to constitutional principles.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A junior minister at the Ministry of Justice stated a few months ago that he felt an \u201cintimate satisfaction\u201d in informing citizens how the state relentlessly pressures detainees transported in prison police vehicles, leaving them no respite. The government of which he is part, in roughly forty months since taking office, has introduced around forty new offenses, aggravating circumstances, and harsher penalties. All of this reflects a repressive and punitive approach to security, one that does not align with the constitutional principle assigning punishment a rehabilitative function.<\/p>\n

Whatever moral or ideological judgment each of us may hold about that approach, one question remains socially unavoidable: does it actually work? Does it effectively guarantee public safety? The answer must confront the phenomenon of recidivism. In Italy, as in many other countries, a significant share of those arrested\u2014between 40% and 60%\u2014have already been convicted before. Reducing recidivism is therefore an essential condition for reducing crime.<\/p>\n

Who Goes Where: The Problem of Inmate Selection<\/strong><\/h3>\n

But what reduces reoffending? Harsh and punitive prison conditions, or a system oriented toward rehabilitation and social reintegration? The debate between these visions is often ideological and rarely grounded in solid evidence. The Italian Constitution offers a clear indication, prohibiting treatment contrary to human dignity and requiring opportunities for rehabilitation. This is certainly the reflection of an ideal and a choice of legal civilization by the founding fathers. But does it also have a utilitarian justification\u2014does it reduce recidivism? Do detention conditions that ensure dignity and provide opportunities for rehabilitation actually lower the probability of reoffending?<\/p>\n

Empirical evidence from recent years, both in Italy and internationally, has provided a positive answer. Below, we briefly present two research studies that have contributed to this conclusion using Italian data.<\/p>\n

First, however, a methodological clarification is necessary. Directly comparing recidivism rates across different prisons does not automatically identify causal relationships. Inmates are not assigned to facilities randomly, but according to criteria that may reflect differences in their propensity to reoffend.<\/p>\n

An analogy helps clarify the point. Patients in hospitals have higher mortality rates, but this does not mean hospitals cause death: those admitted are, on average, more seriously ill. Similarly, comparisons across prisons mix two distinct effects. On the one hand, the causal effect of serving a sentence in a particular type of prison\u2014that is, the difference between actual recidivism and what it would have been under different conditions. On the other hand, a \u201cselection\u201d effect, arising because inmates are not randomly distributed across institutions. For example, a facility offering more rehabilitation opportunities\u2014such as training or external work\u2014may admit inmates deemed more receptive to these programs, who would have a lower risk of recidivism regardless of placement.<\/p>\n

Since truly random assignment is not feasible, researchers must rely on empirical strategies that approximate \u201cquasi-randomness.\u201d The two studies we present stand out for how they address this selection problem.<\/p>\n

It Looks Like Norway, but It\u2019s Bollate<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Bollate (Milan) is Italy\u2019s main example of an \u201copen prison,\u201d a model more common in Nordic countries. Cells are open all day, inmates can move within the facility, there is no overcrowding, and daily life is structured around work, education, vocational training, and recreational activities. Visits allow for privacy with partners, and there are appropriate spaces for children. Inmates are called upon to take responsibility and exercise self-determination: they sign a \u201cresponsibility pact\u201d and can participate in various aspects of prison life. There is also a strong focus on reintegration, and a significant share of inmates benefit from alternative measures. Supervision is shared among different staff: for about 1,200 inmates, there are around 450 prison officers, with lower costs (in 2012, \u20ac65 per inmate per day compared with an average of about \u20ac115).<\/p>\n

Inmates serving their sentences in this Milan facility are not randomly selected. They are chosen through a complex process designed to identify those most likely to respond to rehabilitative opportunities.<\/p>\n

Comparison with nearby prisons shows stark differences in conditions. In San Vittore and Opera, overcrowding reaches 30\u201340%, while Bollate generally operates under capacity. Self-harm injuries are around 10% in San Vittore and below 1% in Bollate. Work opportunities also differ sharply: external work or employment with non-administrative employers is below 1% in San Vittore, just over 5% in Opera, and close to 30% in Bollate. In essence, these are very different ways of experiencing punishment.<\/p>\n

Respecting Dignity Produces Security<\/strong><\/h3>\n

To address the selection problem, our first study focused on a specific group: inmates transferred to Bollate for administrative reasons related to overcrowding in their original institutions, rather than through targeted selection\u2014the so-called \u201crelocated\u201d inmates. The analysis compares inmates with the same total sentence but transferred at different times: those transferred earlier spend more time at Bollate.<\/p>\n

The key assumption is that the timing of transfer is largely independent of individual characteristics. This depends on administrative procedures: after sentencing, inmates are placed on a transfer list in chronological order, and transfers follow this queue as authorizations are granted. The speed of transfer thus reflects contingent factors\u2014such as queue length or authorization frequency\u2014rather than individual traits. As a result, differences in time spent at Bollate, given the same sentence length, are essentially random.<\/p>\n

The data include all Italian male inmates (excluding sex offenders) who passed through Bollate between 2001 and 2009, their previous incarceration history, and any re-entry into prison within three years after release. We know their remaining sentence upon arrival, actual time spent, type of offense, and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.<\/p>\n

The results show that replacing one year in a \u201cclosed and harsh\u201d prison with one year in an \u201copen and humane\u201d prison reduces recidivism by 6 to 10 percentage points (15\u201325% of the average recidivism among relocated inmates). The effect is stronger for less educated inmates and for those with no prior prison experience. Interestingly, relocated inmates are less involved in the explicitly rehabilitative phases offered by Bollate\u2014for example, they are less frequently given work or training opportunities. For them, Bollate is primarily an experience of a prison that, while restricting freedom, does not humiliate, fosters responsibility, and allows for self-determination. The results suggest that this alone is enough to trigger a rehabilitation process. Respect for inmate dignity thus ultimately produces security.<\/p>\n

This suggests that it may be beneficial to expand the \u201cBollate model,\u201d either by increasing the number of such facilities or by making admission less selective. One possible objection is that the effect might depend on the positive influence of \u201cbetter\u201d peers, which could weaken if access were broadened. We therefore examined whether the recidivism of relocated inmates depends on the presence of other relocated inmates during their stay. Since they are not selected inmates, their presence is a good proxy for peer \u201cquality.\u201d However, we found no evidence that the effect changes with the proportion of such inmates.<\/p>\n

In short, it is not true that nothing works to reduce recidivism. A rigorous analysis of the Bollate experience shows that something can be done. While the mechanisms are not fully understood\u2014external work helps, but cannot simply be legislated\u2014it is significant that dignified conditions in a responsible and active environment appear effective. And these conditions are certainly within the reach of prison policy.<\/p>\n

A Prison Designed for Women<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The second study focuses on female inmates, examining how recidivism changes depending on whether sentences are served in women-only prisons or in women\u2019s sections of predominantly male institutions (\u201cmixed prisons\u201d).<\/p>\n

It is striking that, although the global female prison population has grown by 60% over the past twenty years\u2014almost three times faster than the male population\u2014in many countries, including Italy, prison policies still reflect a system designed for male inmates, with little attention to how prison organization affects women\u2019s reintegration.<\/p>\n

Italy has four women-only prisons\u2014Rome, Venice, Trani, and Pozzuoli\u2014and more than fifty mixed institutions, where women\u2019s sections are often very small. Women\u2019s prisons have on average about 125 beds and represent 24% of total capacity, while women\u2019s sections in mixed prisons often host fewer than 30 inmates. According to the Antigone Association, these sections have worse conditions, particularly in access to healthcare, shared spaces, and work and training opportunities.<\/p>\n

Here too, the main empirical challenge is selection: inmates are not randomly assigned, and personal or legal characteristics may influence both placement and recidivism. To address this, we exploit an element of assignment rules.<\/p>\n

In Italy, the Department of Prison Administration assigns inmates based on criteria that may conflict. On one hand, proximity to residence is prioritized to preserve family and social ties; on the other, women\u2019s prisons are considered better suited to female needs, alongside organizational considerations.<\/p>\n

In practice, when the nearest mixed prison is much closer than a women\u2019s prison, proximity prevails and the inmate is assigned to the mixed facility. If the distance difference is small, preference tends to favor the women\u2019s prison. If the women\u2019s prison is closer, assignment almost always goes there. Thus, placement depends systematically on a geographic factor: the difference in distance between residence and the nearest facilities of each type. Since this difference is unrelated to individual characteristics, it provides a quasi-random assignment mechanism.<\/p>\n

Our study, based on over 10,000 observations from 2012\u20132022, shows that inmates assigned to women\u2019s prisons have an 8 to 16 percentage point lower probability of recidivism compared with those in women\u2019s sections of male prisons. The effects are robust: they appear within the first year after release, apply to both Italian and foreign inmates, and across different types of offenses.<\/p>\n

While we cannot fully identify the underlying mechanism, it likely reflects a \u201cjoint treatment\u201d: a set of favorable conditions working together. The reduction is greater when compared with mixed prisons where women\u2019s sections are particularly small\u2014where women are even more marginal\u2014or when the prison director is male. This suggests that facilities designed around women\u2019s needs, with sufficient scale and sensitivity, are more effective in promoting reintegration and reducing recidivism.<\/p>\n

Overall, our findings indicate that prisons designed around women\u2019s needs\u2014rather than simply adapted to them\u2014can foster broader rehabilitation and lower recidivism rates.<\/p>\n

A Reminder from the Constitution<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In conclusion, the two studies discussed show that the displayed satisfaction in \u201cpressuring\u201d inmates and the recurring temptation to multiply crimes and penalties fail to answer the utilitarian question: does it actually work? If \u201csecurity\u201d means reducing future crime, the available evidence suggests that the path is not harsher punishment for its own sake, but rather a system that does not humiliate, that fosters responsibility, and that provides conditions and tools for reintegration.<\/p>\n

This conclusion aligns with constitutional principles not only as a matter of moral choice, but as a pragmatic criterion of effectiveness: treating punishment as rehabilitation is not leniency\u2014it is prevention. And while much remains to be understood about the mechanisms at play, the political point is clear: inmate dignity is not the price to be paid for security\u2014it is the most reliable way to achieve it.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Francesca Calamunci is a researcher in political economy at the University of Catania, a research fellow at IZA and at the CLEAN unit at Bocconi University. She has been a Fulbright\u2013Falcone\u2013NIAF Scholar and a consultant for the World Bank.<\/em><\/p>\n

Gianmarco Daniele is Associate Professor of Public Finance at the University of Milan, Executive Director of the CLEAN unit at Bocconi University, and a research affiliate at CEPR. His research focuses on crime, politics, and public economics.<\/em><\/p>\n

Giovanni Mastrobuoni is Professor of Political Economy at the University of Turin and Chair and Vice-Dean at the Collegio Carlo Alberto in Turin. He is a research fellow at CEPR and at the IZA Institute of Labor Economics.<\/em><\/p>\n

Daniele Terlizzese is currently a fellow at the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) and co-director of the Rome Masters in Economics (RoME). He worked until 2007 in the Research Department of the Bank of Italy and served as director of EIEF from 2008 to 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n

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