{"id":12890,"date":"2026-04-21T16:19:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:19:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=12890"},"modified":"2026-04-21T16:19:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:19:17","slug":"the-meaning-of-punishment-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/04\/21\/the-meaning-of-punishment-today\/","title":{"rendered":"The Meaning of Punishment Today"},"content":{"rendered":"

It was between the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries that a rational view of punishment emerged\u2014no longer seen as a means to inflict suffering on offenders, but as a tool to reduce crime through deterrence and rehabilitation. Building on this approach, economists today study how detention conditions influence recidivism and inmates\u2019 ability to reintegrate into society. Evidence from various countries shows that less degrading prisons, offering opportunities for work and education, promote reintegration after release, while isolation and poor conditions hinder it. Even without radical reforms bringing systems closer to the successful Norwegian model, targeted interventions can be introduced to improve the effectiveness of the penal system.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries were a period of extraordinary intellectual and political ferment. In those years, the foundations of modern democracies were laid, along with the principles that still guide the organization of the rule of law. Criminal law\u2014and in particular the meaning and function of punishment\u2014was at the center of this reflection. Among the leading figures of that era was Cesare Beccaria, whose work On Crimes and Punishments<\/em> remains fundamental. Beccaria was among the first to conceive punishment according to criteria of rationality that we would today call \u201ceconomic\u201d: it should not serve to inflict suffering, but to reduce crime by deterring potential offenders and rehabilitating those who have already committed offenses.<\/p>\n

When Pennsylvania\u2019s Prisons Were a Model<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Along the same lines, the work of Louis Ren\u00e9 Villerm\u00e9 stands out. In the 1820s, he examined the differing effectiveness of French and American prison systems. French prisons appeared less capable of reducing recidivism than those in Pennsylvania\u2014a difference Villerm\u00e9 linked to detention conditions. He concluded that improving the outcomes of the penal system required a fundamental rethinking of prisons, with attention to space, activities during detention, and the harmful effects of overcrowding and concentration on the likelihood of reoffending. As a physician, Villerm\u00e9 was particularly concerned with the impact of incarceration on mental health, which we now know to be an important determinant of recidivism.<\/p>\n

More than two hundred years later, one might think that Villerm\u00e9\u2019s reform agenda has been fully realized and that modern prisons effectively perform both deterrent and rehabilitative functions. Unfortunately, reality is different. In recent years, economists have begun to systematically examine the impact of detention conditions on reoffending.<\/p>\n

Prisons Between Deterrence and Rehabilitation<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The answer to these questions is far from obvious. In theory, detention conditions simultaneously affect both the deterrent and rehabilitative capacity of the penal system, and the two may conflict. On the one hand, harsher conditions might discourage both first-time offenders and repeat offenders. Testimonies from those who have experienced incarceration suggest that unpleasant conditions can deter future crimes. On the other hand, as Villerm\u00e9 had already understood, particularly harsh detention conditions can have negative effects on what economists call \u201chuman capital.\u201d Time spent in overcrowded, unhealthy environments\u2014marked by forced inactivity and a high concentration of individuals who have committed crimes\u2014tends to erode skills and abilities useful in the labor market, making reintegration more difficult after release.<\/p>\n

Detention Conditions as a Field of Study<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This theoretical tension has led economists to \u201clet the data speak.\u201d Over the past fifteen years, a significant body of empirical evidence has accumulated, both internationally and in Italy. These studies fall into three main strands. A first group examines whether imprisonment has a rehabilitative effect compared to alternative measures, such as community service or electronic monitoring. A second strand analyzes specific aspects of detention: overcrowding, opportunities to work, type of facility, frequency of family visits. A third, more recent group evaluates the impact of targeted rehabilitation programs, such as education, training, or information initiatives for inmates.<\/p>\n

All these studies face a crucial methodological challenge: distinguishing the so-called \u201ccausal effect\u201d of detention conditions from the role of inmates\u2019 individual characteristics. For example, if we observe that those who serve prison sentences are more likely to reoffend than those who receive alternative measures, one might conclude that prison has a \u201ccriminogenic\u201d effect. However, access to alternative measures reflects a judge\u2019s assessment that the individual is less dangerous and thus more suitable for a less severe sanction. To overcome this \u201cselection\u201d problem, economists have developed analytical strategies that exploit situations where inmates are assigned to different facilities or regimes in a partially random way\u2014independent of their personal characteristics. This makes it possible to better isolate the effect of the type of facility or regime on subsequent outcomes, excluding other factors.<\/p>\n

Different Countries, Different Prison Systems<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The available results paint a complex but consistent picture. In Norway, often cited as an example of an \u201cideal\u201d prison system\u2014characterized by the absence of overcrowding, wide access to training programs, and relative freedom of movement within facilities\u2014detention reduces recidivism by about 29 percentage points over the five years following release compared with other penalties. At the opposite extreme, in Argentina, where detention conditions are particularly poor, incarceration is associated with an increase in recidivism of about 48% compared with alternative sanctions. In France, a context more similar to Italy, imprisonment leads to an increase in re-incarceration of between 9% and 11% compared with electronic monitoring.<\/p>\n

Faced with such divergent results, one might be tempted to conclude that all prison systems should move toward the Norwegian model. However, such a goal would require enormous investments: building new facilities, drastically reducing the prison population, or deeply restructuring existing institutions. These are costly and politically difficult interventions, and their results are not guaranteed, given the difficulty of separating the effect of detention conditions from each country\u2019s specific institutional and social context.<\/p>\n

Despite these limitations, several studies suggest that even within current prison systems\u2014including Italy\u2019s\u2014there is significant room for improvement. In Italy, together with my co-authors Francesco Drago and Pietro Vertova, I analyzed data on inmates released under the 2006 pardon, exploiting a random component in prison assignment. In particular, we examine cases where inmates, instead of being assigned to facilities near their place of residence, are sent to different institutions for reasons independent of their personal characteristics\u2014such as temporary overcrowding at the time of sentence execution. Our results show that overcrowding itself does not have a significant effect on recidivism, whereas poorer detention conditions and the geographic isolation of facilities\u2014which makes family visits and external interventions more difficult\u2014increase the likelihood of reoffending. Similar findings emerge from Colombia, where Santiago Tobon shows that assignment to newer, less crowded prisons with better services reduces recidivism one year after release by about 36%.<\/p>\n

These studies indicate that better detention conditions strengthen the reintegrative capacity of prisons, and that the results achieved in Nordic countries are not an unrepeatable anomaly. To understand how to intervene without radical reforms, more recent studies have focused on specific and targeted programs. In Italy, analysis of the Bollate prison by Giovanni Mastrobuoni and Daniele Terlizzese shows that the open-cell regime reduces recidivism three years after release by about 15% compared with traditional closed-cell facilities. In the United States, a group of researchers has recently evaluated the Ignite program, active in a prison in Flint County, Michigan. The project offers tailored training courses, and researchers have shown that an additional month of participation reduces recidivism at three months by about one-quarter compared with inmates who do not participate.<\/p>\n

The Importance of Work and Training Opportunities<\/strong><\/h3>\n

As Villerm\u00e9 had already intuited, a crucial element of rehabilitation is how inmates spend their time. Work and training emerge as key factors in promoting reintegration, in line with the predictions of economic theory. If the period of detention allows individuals to accumulate human capital\u2014or at least prevents its deterioration\u2014the likelihood of returning to lawful behavior increases, as so do the chances of finding employment after release. A study by Giulio Zanella on Italy confirms this hypothesis, showing that prison work plays a particularly important role in reducing recidivism.<\/p>\n

Critics might argue that the economic approach only partially explains criminal behavior, and that individuals who commit crimes serious enough to warrant imprisonment are not necessarily motivated to work legally. However, recent studies reinforce the idea that economic opportunities matter. Together with my co-authors Aur\u00e9lie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe, I analyzed high-frequency, geographically detailed data on job postings in France. By linking these data with administrative information on inmates released from French prisons, we show that those released during periods of labor market expansion are less likely to reoffend, while the opposite effect is observed during downturns. Moreover, even news about job creation appears to influence behavior, suggesting that expectations matter as much as actual opportunities. In short, former inmates are able to seize legal employment opportunities when they arise.<\/p>\n

More than two centuries after the work of Cesare Beccaria, the principles of rationality in the application of punishment clearly indicate that detention conditions are a central element of the reintegration process. Contemporary economic research confirms, with modern tools and data, the insights of nineteenth-century thinkers. Although prison conditions in Western democracies are better today than in the past, much remains to be done. Political resistance does not facilitate change. Ironically, the Pennsylvania prison system\u2014considered by Louis Ren\u00e9 Villerm\u00e9 as a model to aspire to\u2014belongs to a country that today has one of the highest incarceration rates and some of the worst detention conditions in the world.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Roberto Galbiati is Research Director at the CNRS and teaches economics at Sciences Po. His main research interests are the determinants of illegal behavior and changes in political institutions.<\/em><\/p>\n

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