{"id":12900,"date":"2026-04-21T16:28:42","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=12900"},"modified":"2026-04-21T16:28:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T14:28:42","slug":"what-lies-behind-prison-overcrowding","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/04\/21\/what-lies-behind-prison-overcrowding\/","title":{"rendered":"What Lies Behind Prison Overcrowding"},"content":{"rendered":"

Italy is among the European countries with the most overcrowded prisons, despite having a lower number of inmates than the EU average. This paradox stems from a severe shortage of available places in detention facilities: even with fewer incarcerations, per capita capacity is significantly lower than in other European countries. After a phase of declining inmate numbers following emergency measures in the early 2010s, overcrowding began to rise again\u2014evidence of policies unable to produce lasting effects. The share of foreign inmates does not explain the difference with Europe, whereas the high proportion of those incarcerated for drug-related offenses and the average length of sentences\u2014the highest in the Union\u2014play a major role. The figures indicate that the critical issue lies in physical space, not staffing, confirming a long-standing structural problem in the Italian prison system.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Italian prisons present a clear paradox: they are among the most overcrowded in Europe despite having a number of inmates below the European Union average. In this article, we aim to provide a concise overview of the main indicators of the Italian prison system and their evolution over time, comparing them with those of other EU countries.<\/p>\n

This is a purely quantitative and descriptive analysis which, like all cross-country comparisons, requires some caution. First and foremost, numbers cannot capture the institutional, social, and legal specificities of each country. Nevertheless, data remain a valuable tool for better understanding the phenomena at play.<\/p>\n

What Drives High Prison Occupancy Rates<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Let us begin with the data, noting that\u2014unless otherwise specified\u2014all figures cited come from the publication by Marcelo F. Aebi and Edoardo Cocco, SPACE I \u2013 2024 \u2013 Council of Europe Annual Penal Statistics: Prison populations<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The first row of the table below shows that Italy has a prison occupancy density\u2014the ratio between inmates and capacity\u2014of 1.18, significantly higher than the European Union average of 0.95. In this ranking, Italy places fourth among EU countries, behind only Slovenia, Cyprus, and France.<\/p>\n

Before examining the possible causes of this situation, it is useful to clarify what occupancy density actually measures. It is the ratio between the incarceration rate\u2014the number of inmates per inhabitant\u2014and per capita capacity, i.e. the number of available prison places per inhabitant. It follows that a high occupancy density can result from two distinct factors: a high incarceration rate, meaning frequent use of detention, or low per capita capacity\u2014meaning too few prisons relative to the population.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The second row of the same table shows that, with just under 61,000 inmates, Italy has an incarceration rate below the European Union average: about one person per thousand inhabitants, compared with 1.1 in the EU. Yet despite this, occupancy density is higher, making the comparison of prison places even more striking. Italy has only 0.87 prison places per thousand inhabitants, compared with the European average of 1.20. In other words, fewer inmates but more overcrowding point to a double structural shortfall in capacity.<\/p>\n

The evolution over time of occupancy density in Italy and in the EU, shown in the figure below, also provides useful insights. Since 2008\u2014once the effects of the pardon had worn off\u2014density in EU countries has declined almost continuously, albeit slightly each year. In Italy, by contrast, the most significant decline occurred starting in 2010, when the number of inmates reached a historic peak of around 69,000, prompting the government to adopt the \u201cempty prisons\u201d law and the Prison Plan. This was followed by a gradual reduction until 2013, then a sharper drop between 2014 and 2015, driven by three main factors: the ruling of the European Court of Human Rights on the \u201cinhuman treatment\u201d in Italian prisons, the implementation of the empty prisons decree, and the declaration of unconstitutionality of the Fini-Giovanardi law on drugs. However, confirming that emergency measures such as pardons and amnesties do not produce lasting structural effects, density began to rise again from 2016, fell temporarily during the pandemic, and has increased again since 2021.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Share of Foreign Inmates Does Not Explain the Difference<\/strong><\/h3>\n

But why does Italy have so many inmates? One hypothesis often put forward is the high presence of foreigners in prisons. For reasons discussed in other articles in this issue of eco<\/em>, foreign inmates have far fewer opportunities to access alternatives to detention. Today they account for 31% of the prison population\u2014nearly one in three. However, this is unlikely to explain the difference with other EU countries in terms of occupancy density. In EU countries, the share of foreign inmates is 27%, only slightly lower than in Italy. Nor can it be argued that Italy has experienced a sudden and unexpected surge in non-Italian prisoners, while elsewhere the phenomenon is more established. The data actually show the opposite: since 2008, the proportion of foreign inmates in Italy has decreased, while it has increased in EU countries.<\/p>\n

A distinctive factor emerges clearly when looking at drug-related offenses. Among all EU countries, Italy has the highest share of inmates serving sentences for such crimes: 32%, compared with a European average of 14%. The decriminalization of drugs is a controversial issue that goes beyond the scope of this discussion. But it is worth considering a simple exercise: what would happen if Italy\u2019s share of inmates for drug-related offenses were aligned with the European average?<\/p>\n

In this scenario, the total number of inmates would fall by around 13,000, and occupancy density would drop to 0.93\u2014below the EU average. Naturally, in this exercise the entire reduction comes from a sharp decline in the incarceration rate, which would fall from 1.01 to 0.83, well below the European average.<\/p>\n

The Role of Sentence Length<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A second Italian anomaly concerns the average length of prison sentences, the highest in the European Union: nearly eight years, compared with an EU average of 5.6. It should be noted that the formal length of a sentence does not necessarily correspond to the time actually served, and we do not have data to determine whether this difference is similar or different across countries. Moreover, average duration also depends on the composition of offenses. With these caveats in mind, it is still useful to ask what would happen if average sentence length were reduced.<\/p>\n

A rigorous calculation would require detailed information on many variables, but a simple example can give an idea of the order of magnitude. Suppose all inmates serve sentences equal to the average of eight years and that each sentence is reduced by one year. In this scenario, one-eighth of available places would be freed\u2014about 7,500 inmates. Occupancy density would thus fall to 1.02, a level not far from the EU average.<\/p>\n

Therefore, Italy does not have an adequate number of prison places. It is interesting to note that the shortage is limited to physical space: the number of inmates per custodial staff member is 1.6, well below the European average of 2.8. This further confirms that Italy\u2019s main issue is a chronic lack of prison capacity.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Roberto Perotti is Professor of Economics at Bocconi University.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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