{"id":13657,"date":"2026-06-26T15:22:54","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:22:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=13657"},"modified":"2026-06-26T15:22:54","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:22:54","slug":"europes-digital-sovereignty-will-be-decided-between-sea-and-space","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/06\/26\/europes-digital-sovereignty-will-be-decided-between-sea-and-space\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Will Be Decided Between Sea and Space"},"content":{"rendered":"

Every message we send, every payment we make, and every video call we initiate travels across invisible networks running beneath the oceans and above our heads. It is within these remote domains that a decisive battle for Europe’s future is being fought. Between vulnerable submarine cables, satellites controlled by foreign powers, and technological monopolies, Europe’s digital sovereignty appears fragile and fragmented. Sea and space have become new arenas of geopolitical competition, where security, economic interests, and strategic autonomy are increasingly intertwined. In a context marked by sabotage, external dependencies, and industrial shortcomings, rethinking Europe’s communications architecture has become more urgent than ever. Only the intelligent integration of terrestrial, submarine, and space-based infrastructure can guarantee continuity, resilience, and control over the Old Continent’s digital future.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Every time we send a message, make a bank transfer, or start a video call, we rely on an invisible infrastructure that stretches across the ocean floor and orbits above our heads.<\/p>\n

In the darkness of the seabed and the silence of outer space, a decisive contest over Europe’s future is unfolding. Whereas connectivity was once regarded as a purely commercial or technical matter, it has now become a cornerstone of both national security and strategic autonomy. The issue is no longer simply ensuring that Netflix does not buffer, but guaranteeing that banks continue to operate, power grids remain functional, and armed forces are able to communicate.<\/p>\n

Europe today finds itself in a paradoxical position: it is one of the most interconnected hubs on the planet, yet it does not possess the keys to the infrastructure that keeps it alive.<\/p>\n

The Vulnerability of Submarine Cables<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Our digital civilization rests upon glass fibres as thin as human hair, wrapped in steel armour and laid across unexplored stretches of the ocean floor.<\/p>\n

Around 95 percent of global internet traffic\u2014and virtually all international financial transactions\u2014passes through submarine telecommunications cables (SCCs). Europe is a crucial hub within this network: with hundreds of active cables and numerous landing stations, it naturally serves as the junction connecting the Americas, Africa, and Asia.<\/p>\n

Yet this infrastructure is highly vulnerable. European seas are relatively shallow and densely trafficked. In the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean, limited depths make cables particularly easy targets. The threat comes not only from accidental incidents, such as ship anchors or fishing trawlers\u2014which nevertheless account for around 70 percent of all cable failures\u2014but also from deliberate hybrid attacks.<\/p>\n

The most emblematic example remains the sabotage of the Nord Stream I and II pipelines in September 2022. Yet several submarine telecommunications and power cables have also been targeted. Consider the case of C-Lion1, a cable capable of transmitting 144 terabits per second, which was damaged no fewer than three times between late 2024 and January 2025.<\/p>\n

Russia has systematically mapped these critical arteries. Cutting a cable constitutes an act of aggression with potentially enormous consequences while remaining difficult to attribute with certainty in the immediate aftermath. On average, the disruption of a single backbone cable can cost up to 50 million dollars per day, affecting not only internet connectivity but also the financial markets that depend upon instantaneous communications. Cyprus, Malta, and Ireland\u2014whose economies rely heavily on digital and financial services\u2014are among Europe’s most vulnerable countries.<\/p>\n

Monitoring and defending every individual cable along its entire length is virtually impossible. Patrolling by sea and deploying emerging technologies such as the Internet of Underwater Things\u2014an area in which Italy is a pioneer through the startup WSense\u2014offer only limited economic returns. Beyond a certain threshold, each additional investment in sensors or patrols yields progressively smaller gains in security while costs rise sharply.<\/p>\n

Since it is technically impossible to monitor thousands of kilometres of seabed twenty-four hours a day, the financial effort required to eliminate the remaining blind spots becomes unsustainable without ever fully eliminating the risk of sabotage. This is why operations such as NATO’s Operation Baltic Sentry are essential: they signal presence and vigilance, but they can never completely eliminate the opportunities for hostile actors to strike.<\/p>\n

True security therefore lies in ensuring that the system continues to function even when one of its cables is cut.<\/p>\n

In the past, submarine cables were owned by consortia of telecommunications operators, many of them state-controlled. Today the paradigm has changed dramatically. By 2024, 71 percent of international transmission capacity was controlled by the American technology giants\u2014the so-called hyperscalers: Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Remarkably, in 2010 their combined share amounted to just 10 percent. This concentration of power in private foreign hands creates the risk of an infrastructure monopoly, limiting Europe’s ability to establish its own rules governing data security.<\/p>\n

Looking to the Sky<\/strong><\/h3>\n

While efforts continue to protect the seabed, the skies are rapidly filling with a new generation of satellites. Until recently, communications satellites were few in number, enormous in size, and located in geostationary orbit some 36,000 kilometres above Earth.<\/p>\n

Today the revolution is called LEO (Low Earth Orbit), extending from approximately 500 to 2,000 kilometres above the Earth’s surface, where constellations of thousands of small satellites operate as integrated networks.<\/p>\n

The undisputed leader is SpaceX, with its Starlink constellation. Launching satellites at an unprecedented pace, Elon Musk has already placed more than 9,000 satellites into orbit, controlling roughly 80 percent of global satellite data capacity. Despite this extraordinary expansion, the combined capacity of all telecommunications satellites currently in orbit amounts to only around 80 terabits per second\u2014barely half the capacity of the single C-Lion1 submarine cable.<\/p>\n

The geopolitical significance became immediately apparent in Ukraine. When Russian bombardments destroyed terrestrial communications networks, Starlink enabled Ukrainian forces to continue carrying out precision strikes, coordinating troop movements, and keeping the government online. Yet dependence on Starlink comes at a price: the power to “pull the plug” on an entire military campaign\u2014or even a national economy\u2014now rests in the hands of a single individual.<\/p>\n

On the other side, Jeff Bezos has entered the race through Amazon LEO (formerly known as Project Kuiper). With a planned constellation of more than 3,200 satellites, Amazon aims not merely to provide connectivity but to integrate space infrastructure with its vast network of data centres and cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS).<\/p>\n

For Europe, this means finding itself caught between two American monopolies that control not only launch capabilities\u2014thanks to the reusable rockets developed by SpaceX and Blue Origin\u2014but also the entire data management ecosystem.<\/p>\n

China has learned the lesson and is accelerating its Guowang and Qianfan programmes, with the goal of launching more than 28,000 satellites. Beijing is pursuing full vertical integration: government satellites for military purposes alongside commercial constellations designed to dominate emerging markets in Africa and Asia, exporting not only technology but also its own standards of censorship and state control.<\/p>\n

Europe’s Dilemma<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Europe has attempted to play its own card with IRIS\u00b2 (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite<\/em>). The objective is to create a multi-orbit constellation capable of providing encrypted communications for governments while extending broadband coverage to underserved areas across the continent.<\/p>\n

The project, however, suffers from the chronic weaknesses of Europe’s space industry. While SpaceX launches reusable rockets every few days, Europe has had to contend with the lengthy delays affecting the Ariane 6 launcher. As a result, the estimated cost of IRIS\u00b2 has risen from \u20ac6 billion to more than \u20ac10 billion, while full operational capability has been postponed until 2030\u20132032. Moreover, its planned capacity\u2014around 3.3 terabits per second\u2014appears minuscule when compared with Starlink’s exponential growth. There is therefore a real risk of constructing a monumental infrastructure that will already be technologically obsolete on the day it enters service.<\/p>\n

Individual countries such as Italy, Germany, and France\u2014with the commercial operator Eutelsat and its OneWeb constellation\u2014are pursuing their own national projects. While these initiatives undoubtedly stimulate investment, innovation, and industrial development, they also fail to exploit the economies of scale that could result from a genuinely continental effort. A recent example is the agreement between Rheinmetall, OHB, and the German Ministry of Defence to develop a constellation of several hundred satellites dedicated to secure telecommunications and the transmission of strategic data. Italy has likewise announced a budget\u2014still relatively modest\u2014of more than \u20ac750 million for a potential military telecommunications constellation.<\/p>\n

A Hybrid Architecture<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A policy brief published by the Institute for European Policymaking (IEP) at Bocconi argues that the solution does not lie in choosing between sea and space, but rather in integrating them into a single security ecosystem.<\/p>\n

Today, when a submarine cable is severed, technicians must first locate the fault and then dispatch specialized repair vessels, a process that can take weeks. During that period, data traffic becomes congested. What is needed is a form of digital insurance based on a hybrid architecture: a software protocol capable of instantly detecting a submarine failure and automatically rerouting critical traffic through satellite networks. The objective is not to move all of YouTube into space, but to ensure that diplomacy, banking transactions, and military command systems continue to function without even a single second of interruption.<\/p>\n

This concept lies at the heart of NATO’s HEIST project (Hybrid Space\/Submarine Architecture Ensuring Infosec of Telecommunications<\/em>), currently focused on the transatlantic cables linking Europe and North America. When fibre-optic sensors based on Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) technology detect an anomaly or an act of sabotage affecting a cable, the system should be capable of instantly rerouting government, financial, and military communications through satellite constellations.<\/p>\n

Through the use of smart contracts and automated protocols, this transition should occur within milliseconds, without waiting for political or bureaucratic decisions.<\/p>\n

The Road to the Stars (and the Seabed)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

To recover the ground it has lost, Europe must change its mindset. IRIS\u00b2 should not try to compete with Musk on purely commercial grounds or in terms of user numbers. Instead, it should focus on maximum security, becoming the world’s most resilient network for government and other critical applications. It should become the continent’s digital vault.<\/p>\n

The European Union should integrate submarine cables and satellite systems (such as IRIS\u00b2) into a single, coordinated hybrid architecture. Such an approach would guarantee the resilience of essential national functions while overcoming the bureaucratic delays and fragmentation that currently characterize national projects during times of crisis.<\/p>\n

Monitoring every centimetre of submarine cable is impossible. But we can increase the risks faced by potential adversaries. Projects such as Baltic Sentry envisage the use of underwater drones and maritime patrols to establish continuous, unpredictable surveillance that would make any act of sabotage prohibitively costly in political terms. Europe must also develop rapid-repair corridors capable of enabling immediate intervention, thereby reducing the economic consequences of failures should an attack on a cable nevertheless occur.<\/p>\n

Without competitive launch vehicles and low-cost access to space, the European Union will remain a second-class passenger in the space race. The highest priority must therefore be the development of launch systems capable of dramatically reducing the cost of placing satellites into orbit\u2014a prerequisite for continuously upgrading Europe’s own constellations.<\/p>\n

The motto per aspera ad astra<\/em>\u2014through hardships to the stars<\/em>\u2014has never been more relevant.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Giovanni Cabroni is an analyst at Novaspace and formerly served as a research assistant at the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University.<\/em><\/p>\n

Andrea Gilli teaches Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews and is a Fellow of the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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