{"id":13667,"date":"2026-06-26T15:33:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:33:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=13667"},"modified":"2026-06-26T15:33:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:33:59","slug":"global-chaos-marks-the-rise-of-the-middle-powers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/06\/26\/global-chaos-marks-the-rise-of-the-middle-powers\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Chaos Marks the Rise of the Middle Powers"},"content":{"rendered":"

It had become sheer hypocrisy to pretend that the world was still governed by shared rules. Once that veil was lifted, the illusion of living under a liberal international order dissolved under the weight of multiple crises and shifting power balances. The old order now reveals deep fractures: from the wars of recent decades and geopolitical fragmentation to the transformation of the United States into an increasingly assertive actor. These uncertain new scenarios are dominated by rivalries and spheres of influence, in which authoritarian temptations and nationalist revivals are gaining ground. Yet they also open up a crucial space for the middle powers, called upon to redefine the rules of global cooperation. Caught between marginalization and the possibility of renewed influence, Europe is playing a decisive game for its own future.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mark Carney’s speech in Davos struck a deep chord across Europe. Not only because it was an extraordinary address\u2014the kind one rarely hears from political leaders these days\u2014but because his words about the breakdown of the international order and the need to acknowledge that it had become a fiction resonated with Europeans precisely because we know they are true. Like the child who, with courage and honesty, declares that the emperor has no clothes, the Canadian Prime Minister gave political legitimacy to something that many of us have understood intellectually for a long time: the so-called liberal international order is dead.<\/p>\n

By recalling the example of the small shopkeeper in the Soviet Union who kept a sign reading “Workers of the world, unite!” in his store not out of ideological conviction but simply to avoid trouble, Carney urged us to remove the equally stale sign of the liberal international order from our own shop window.<\/p>\n

An International Order Built\u2014and Destroyed\u2014by the United States<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Every international order embodies the values, norms, and institutions associated with a particular distribution of power. The liberal order rested upon American hegemony within the international system. In other words, the United States represented a power not unlike the Leviathan described by Thomas Hobbes, constructing and leading that order on the basis of liberal principles. It is precisely that order which has fractured under the weight of the crises of the past quarter century.<\/p>\n

First came the attacks of September 11, 2001, followed by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Then came the financial and economic crisis beginning in 2008, exposing the excesses of an order that had evolved from liberal to neoliberal (economic laissez-faire) and eventually to hyper-liberal (the neoconservative political project), borrowing the definition proposed by political philosopher John Gray. This was followed by the migration crisis of 2015, the rise of nationalist populism, the pandemic, and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza\u2014all events demonstrating that the liberal order had ceased to function as such while the world retreated into nationalism and authoritarianism.<\/p>\n

While politicians, the media, and public institutions have become absorbed\u2014sometimes obsessively and self-destructively\u2014in sealing national borders against trade, viruses, or migrants, they have lost sight of the fact that the world’s most porous and least protected frontier is the one separating democracy from authoritarianism.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the United States itself has undergone a profound transformation: from a liberal Leviathan into a predatory power, apparently determined to dismantle the very order it once helped build while extracting resources and concessions from both allies and rivals alike. The liberal order rested upon American hegemony, but it was a form of power that\u2014although not always and not everywhere\u2014accepted certain self-imposed constraints through participation in multilateral organizations, respect for international law, and consultation with allies. Yet this very system\u2014which benefited the United States more than any other country\u2014is now being challenged by America itself under President Donald Trump, elected twice and therefore by no historical accident. Trump is both a symptom of the collapse of the liberal order and one of its most dramatic accelerators.<\/p>\n

The System Envisioned by Trump<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If the time has come to acknowledge that the liberal international order has come to an end\u2014because the hypocrisy embodied in the gap between proclaimed rules and the actual exercise of power had become intolerable\u2014we must now ask what comes next.<\/p>\n

There are two possible ways to realign power and norms within the international system.<\/p>\n

The first, favoured by Trump, but also by Russian President Vladimir Putin and perhaps by Chinese President Xi Jinping, is simply to eliminate the norms themselves. Donald Trump may be many things, but hypocrisy is not among them. He says what he intends to do\u2014as dictators often do, beginning with the Russian one\u2014and he does, or attempts to do, precisely what he says. He wants to be treated like a king and, whenever possible, behaves like an absolute monarch. He has renamed the Department of Defense as the Department of War and, in the span of a single year, the United States has conducted military strikes in no fewer than seven countries: Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, Venezuela, and Yemen. It has also embarked upon an attempt at regime change in Iran, unleashing a war of choice\u2014that is, a war deliberately initiated and therefore avoidable\u2014which is throwing the entire region into chaos.<\/p>\n

But is Trump not himself hypocritical in claiming to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize? The American President genuinely believes he merits the award because he confuses peace with business\u2014with the “deal” that has become his trademark. He cannot understand why it should be so difficult to negotiate what, in his mind, resembles nothing more than a real-estate transaction between two parties such as Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to this logic, any deal must reflect the relative strength of those involved. Consequently, Trump believes Washington should strengthen the strong and weaken the weak in order to reach an agreement\u2014or a capitulation\u2014more quickly.<\/p>\n

The order envisioned by Trump amounts to little more than the law of the jungle, where, to paraphrase Thucydides, the strong do what they can while the weak suffer what they must. It is a world organized into spheres of influence, where the great devour the small. The lions at the top of the food chain may eventually come into conflict with one another. Yet this scenario of imperial rivalry\u2014or even imperial conflict\u2014is not necessarily Trump’s preferred outcome. For the time being, the American President appears to favour the creation of spheres of influence and a model based on collusion rather than competition among China, Russia, and the United States. In this arrangement, each of the three powers would dominate and exploit its own sphere of influence: the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East for the United States, East Asia for China, and Eastern Europe for Russia. The world, it would seem, is large enough to accommodate three predators\u2014at least for a while.<\/p>\n

The Middle Powers Can Shape Their Own Destiny<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Trump has therefore torn away the mask of hypocrisy by openly repudiating the rules. The alternative way to realign power and norms within the international system is to create a radically different order.<\/p>\n

It is now evident that the system has become increasingly multipolar. Alongside the United States, China, and Russia stand Europe\u2014and the European Union in particular\u2014as well as India, Brazil, South Africa, Australia, Canada, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and others. These are what Carney calls the middle powers. Beginning with the so-called Global South, they are demanding a seat at the table. The creation of the G20 is a clear manifestation of this trend. However, when they are denied that space\u2014as has unfortunately happened within the United Nations Security Council and in international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, where they remain underrepresented\u2014they tend to exercise their influence in a transactional manner, aligning themselves with different actors depending on the issue at hand. As a result, they assume increasing responsibilities, but these are generally confined to their own regions rather than extending to the great transnational challenges of our age, such as climate change, technology, or migration.<\/p>\n

To a considerable extent, this regionalization of responsibility can work, particularly in the management of crises. One can therefore imagine Europe assuming the primary\u2014if not exclusive\u2014responsibility for Ukraine. Indeed, this is already happening as the United States steadily reduces its military and economic support for Kyiv. Similarly, in the Middle East we are witnessing the growing prominence of regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, alongside smaller states including Qatar and Oman, which are playing valuable mediating roles.<\/p>\n

But this is not enough.<\/p>\n

It is not enough because the middle powers have not yet succeeded in reaffirming the validity of international law, beginning with its most fundamental principles, such as sovereignty and territorial integrity. In a world governed by imperial collusion, these principles are, by definition, denied. In a system built around the middle powers, by contrast, they must necessarily be reaffirmed.<\/p>\n

But we must go further by reaffirming, adapting, or creating new rules capable of governing, facilitating, and encouraging multilateral cooperation.<\/p>\n

Even here there are some encouraging signs.<\/p>\n

Consider, for example, the acceleration of the international trade agenda in response to American protectionism and tariffs. The European Union’s agreements with India and with the Mercosur countries provide clear evidence of this trend, as does the renewed momentum toward a trade agreement\u2014facilitated by Canada\u2014between the EU and the Asian members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).<\/p>\n

On other major transnational issues, however, the outlook is far less encouraging. In some areas, existing agreements risk being weakened, as is the case with climate policy. In others, such as artificial intelligence and migration, viable solutions have yet to emerge.<\/p>\n

As the multilateral system as we have known it continues to unravel, it will fall to the middle powers\u2014both in the West and across the Global South\u2014to forge new coalitions capable of advancing global governance.<\/p>\n

In short, the die has not yet been cast. The future may still move in one direction or another. What is already clear, however, is the course that Italy and Europe should pursue. In a world dominated by empires, the Old Continent would soon find itself served as one of the dishes on the imperial menu. Only within a system built around the middle powers can Europe secure a seat at the table and contribute to reaffirming\u2014and redefining\u2014the rules of the international order.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (Institute of International Affairs), Professor of Practice at the Johns Hopkins University SAIS, Senior Fellow at the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University, and an independent non-executive director of the multi-utility company Acea. She previously served as Special Adviser to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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