{"id":13681,"date":"2026-06-26T15:45:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:45:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=13681"},"modified":"2026-06-26T15:45:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:45:01","slug":"when-disorder-reigns-supreme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/06\/26\/when-disorder-reigns-supreme\/","title":{"rendered":"When Disorder Reigns Supreme"},"content":{"rendered":"

In just fifteen months, Trump has driven a deep wedge between the United States and its longstanding allies. At home, he has dismantled the system of checks and balances. Abroad, he has undermined the very foundations of international law and multilateral institutions. If they are to avoid ending up on the \u201cimperial menu\u201d invoked at Davos by the Canadian Prime Minister, middle powers have only one path forward: designing new balances of power and new forms of global coordination for managing common resources and international conflicts. Europe is the natural candidate to lead this process\u2014not only because it remains the world\u2019s only genuine example of multilateralism, but also because it has already demonstrated its ability to tackle major challenges through coordinated action. And at a time when security has once again become a priority, Europe\u2019s welfare state may prove to be a strategic asset.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

There is one image that perfectly encapsulates the legacy Donald Trump is leaving behind: the enormous pit dug into the White House gardens for the construction of what he called \u201cthe most beautiful ballroom in the world.\u201d As expected, a judge halted the project, ruling that the President of the United States is not a pharaoh and therefore lacks the authority to demolish and replace entire sections of the presidential residence. In the judge\u2019s words, Trump is merely the White House\u2019s custodian, not its owner.<\/p>\n

Construction has now been suspended, leaving behind a colossal hole that is likely to remain for quite some time. As is often the case with populist movements, they leave behind enormous holes but prove incapable of rebuilding.<\/p>\n

During the first fifteen months of his second presidency, \u201cThe Donald\u201d has dug a new Mariana Trench\u2014this time in the Atlantic Ocean\u2014by repeatedly lashing out at Europe, America\u2019s historic ally. He has opened fissures even deeper than those created by global warming\u2014which he continues to deny\u2014in Greenland\u2019s glaciers. He has undermined the already fragile architecture of international multilateral institutions by depriving them of essential resources, as this month\u2019s chart illustrates. He has turned international law into Swiss cheese. Through executive orders, he has crippled the institutions of checks and balances that lie at the heart of democratic systems. And he has transformed the MAGA movement\u2019s frustration over the end of the unipolar era\u2014the period of uncontested U.S. dominance following the fall of the Berlin Wall\u2014into blind aggression and improvised displays of military power.<\/p>\n

Did Multilateralism Ever Really Exist?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This issue of eco<\/em> echoes the speech delivered by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the Davos Forum. At its core was the acknowledgment that the liberal international order\u2014a world governed by shared rules binding on everyone, from the weakest to the strongest\u2014has come to an end. It was, indeed, an important speech and one displaying unusual courage for a sitting head of government.<\/p>\n

But was the world before Trump truly governed by common rules? And did the multilateralism that so many now mourn ever really exist? For a system of shared rules to function, there must be referees capable of monitoring compliance and sanctions for those who violate them. We have had referees, but too often only on paper and easily sidelined when inconvenient. As we document, for example, the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was effectively paralyzed by the United States even before Trump took office.<\/p>\n

As for sanctions, the only body empowered to authorize binding ones\u2014the United Nations Security Council\u2014has been systematically paralyzed by the veto power of its five permanent members: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China. As a result, sanctions have been imposed only on geopolitical losers, from the Nuremberg and Tokyo trials to the tribunals established for war crimes in the former Yugoslavia and the genocide in Rwanda. Even serious violations of international law\u2014such as U.S. interventions in Vietnam and Iraq or Russian interventions in Afghanistan and Syria\u2014have never resulted in sanctions.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s Reversal<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The real novelty of the past two years is that the United States\u2014the hegemonic power that built and guaranteed the postwar order\u2014has decided to dismantle it. We are witnessing not the evolution of a system, but its deliberate destruction by its own architect. Nor are we dealing, as under previous administrations, with occasional and calculated violations that left the overall framework intact. Donald Trump has taken an axe to the system.<\/p>\n

The hegemon\u2019s power, once used to strengthen coalitions among countries pursuing common objectives, has been transformed into an instrument of coercion\u2014a means of imposing penalties on partners, including America\u2019s own historic allies.<\/p>\n

The Illusion of Self-Sufficiency<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If we cannot\u2014and perhaps do not wish to\u2014turn back the clock, neither can we imagine shielding ourselves from global shocks by retreating behind national borders and pursuing self-sufficiency, beginning with energy independence.<\/p>\n

The joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran provided a clear demonstration. Fuel prices rose proportionally more in North America than in Europe, despite the fact that the United States is a net exporter of oil.<\/p>\n

The reason is straightforward: oil, natural gas, and many chemical products\u2014from helium to fertilizers\u2014are traded in global markets, where producers sell to the highest bidder regardless of location. Countries hit hardest by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz\u2014such as China, India, South Korea, and Japan\u2014turned to alternative markets to meet domestic demand, making access to energy resources a truly global issue.<\/p>\n

Self-sufficiency is equally illusory because the information flows essential to the functioning of modern economies cannot be controlled by any single country in isolation. As we document, 95 percent of global internet traffic passes through vulnerable undersea cables, while 80 percent of the world’s satellite capacity is controlled by SpaceX.<\/p>\n

Middle Powers<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What is needed, therefore, is the design of new balances of power and new forms of global coordination in managing shared resources and international conflicts. History offers precedents in which, despite the weakening of the dominant power, order was preserved through cooperation among smaller powers: the final phase of the Gold Standard, the Gold Pool system of the 1960s, and the coordinated response to the 2008 financial crisis that led to the creation of the G20.<\/p>\n

The lesson is that coalitions are possible\u2014provided they are broad enough, stable enough, and resilient enough to withstand retaliation from the hegemon, which still occupies a dominant position in crucial sectors such as defense and finance.<\/p>\n

Middle powers\u2014the European Union, Canada, Japan, India, Brazil, Australia, and many others\u2014are therefore not powerless. They have not yet become one of the dishes on the imperial menu described by Carney. A world divided into spheres of influence and collusion among great predators\u2014the United States, China, and Russia\u2014carving up the globe at the expense of weaker nations has not yet materialized.<\/p>\n

An informal coalition has already begun to take shape. With very few exceptions, countries outside the United States have continued to operate within the rules-based system without raising tariffs. The trade agreements between the EU and Mercosur, the EU and India, and the EU and Australia all point in this direction. Likewise, the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA)\u2014the alternative mechanism for resolving trade disputes\u2014demonstrates that effective institutions can be built even without Washington.<\/p>\n

These coalitions can also evolve into more flexible geometries based on mutual interests, occasionally drawing in one of the major powers. In the digital sphere, as we document, the United States defends WTO rules in order to protect Silicon Valley’s technology giants, while China champions the principle of \u201cdigital sovereignty.\u201d In manufacturing, however, the opposite occurs: Washington tramples on international rules by using tariffs as instruments of geopolitical pressure, while Beijing presents itself as the defender of free trade.<\/p>\n

These conflicts may also create new opportunities for those that remain outside the fray. In the strategically vital semiconductor sector, for example, we show that while U.S. export restrictions on China have certainly reduced American chip exports, they have also led to a 139 percent increase in European exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China\u2014an unintended boost to Washington’s competitors.<\/p>\n

Europe<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Europe is the natural candidate to lead this process\u2014not because it is the most powerful actor, but because it remains perhaps the world’s only functioning example of genuine multilateralism.<\/p>\n

Today, its decision-making processes are hamstrung by the principle of unanimity. Yet, as we recall, Europe has built not only the Single Market but also a digital regulatory framework that no individual nation could have developed on its own. It coordinated the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, kept the green transition on course (for the first time, in 2025 electricity generated from solar and wind in Europe exceeded electricity generated from coal, gas, and other fossil fuels), and agreed on a historic increase in defense spending.<\/p>\n

European national governments\u2014including our own\u2014have too often used foreign policy as a diversion, a way of talking about something else when faced with domestic difficulties. It is the same tactic Richard Nixon employed when he traveled to China in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal. Such diversions drain energy from the areas where national governments can truly make a difference: improving healthcare systems, strengthening labor markets, and enhancing social protection.<\/p>\n

They also undermine the legitimacy of those operating at the only level capable of shaping global balances. Today, the isolated voice of any individual European leader carries little weight\u2014if any at all. And in doing so, it weakens those who could genuinely make a difference.<\/p>\n

National governments that focused on the tasks they can actually perform, while delegating foreign policy and defense to pan-European institutions\u2014thus entrusting diplomacy and military deterrence with safeguarding peace and containing the new imperialisms emerging around the world\u2014could indirectly strengthen Europe’s global role.<\/p>\n

One defining feature of Europe’s identity is its welfare state. At a time when external security has once again become a priority, social policies can represent a strategic asset. A well-functioning welfare state generates domestic trust, political legitimacy, and social cohesion\u2014all conditions that are equally essential for building a credible defense and exercising influence abroad.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

P.S. The next issue of eco<\/em>, available on newsstands from May 16, will focus on the use of artificial intelligence in modern warfare.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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