{"id":13774,"date":"2026-07-16T16:19:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:19:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=13774"},"modified":"2026-07-16T16:19:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:19:55","slug":"how-heavy-is-the-burden-of-defence-on-public-finances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/07\/16\/how-heavy-is-the-burden-of-defence-on-public-finances\/","title":{"rendered":"How Heavy Is the Burden of Defence on Public Finances?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts are increasing across the world. As a result, rearmament has returned to the centre of economic policymaking, and its consequences for national economies are already becoming apparent. While increases in defence spending support growth and aggregate demand in the short term, over time their costs become significant: public debt rises, fiscal accounts come under increasing pressure, and macroeconomic vulnerabilities intensify. Europe faces two additional challenges. Not only does it import a large share of its military equipment, but each Member State continues to pursue its own strategy. Unless coordination within the European Union is strengthened, there is a real risk that governments will be forced to compress other priorities\u2014from welfare to public investment\u2014without even succeeding in genuinely enhancing the continent’s security.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Geopolitical uncertainty is increasing across the world, while military conflicts continue to multiply. Against this backdrop, defence spending has returned to the centre of fiscal policy, with far-reaching consequences for national economies.<\/p>\n

Military Spending Is Rising Across the World, Including Europe<\/strong><\/h3>\n

It is therefore hardly surprising that, in recent years, many countries have devoted an ever-growing share of public resources to their military budgets. Between 2020 and 2024, around half of the world’s economies increased defence spending and, by 2024, almost 40 percent were allocating more than 2 percent of GDP to defence (see figure below). For most European countries, this increase reflects the commitments undertaken within NATO, which envisage a structural strengthening of resources devoted to defence and security, with expenditure rising to as much as 5 percent of GDP by 2035.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

For Europe, the issue is not simply how much to spend, but how to integrate a lasting increase in defence expenditure into public budgets that are already under considerable strain. The programmes that have been announced\u2014or are already being implemented\u2014entail a substantial and potentially persistent financial commitment in a context where public debt is already high and other spending priorities\u2014from infrastructure and public services to the costs associated with population ageing\u2014also require additional resources.<\/p>\n

This point deserves particular emphasis. Defence spending is not a temporary response to a specific shock; rather, it represents a structural component that is destined to exert a lasting influence on budgetary choices. Assessing its macroeconomic implications is therefore especially important, particularly in economies already constrained by tight fiscal conditions. An increase in military expenditure may provide a temporary boost to aggregate demand and economic activity, but over the medium term it also tends to increase economic vulnerabilities through weaker public finances and, in many cases, a deterioration in external balances.<\/p>\n

Every Time Military Spending Has Increased<\/strong><\/h3>\n

According to the analysis presented in the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook<\/em> of April 2026, following the decline that accompanied the end of the Cold War, episodes of substantial increases in defence spending have once again become more frequent since the mid-2000s. In advanced economies they occur less frequently than in emerging markets, but they tend to be larger and more persistent, reflecting policy decisions with long-lasting fiscal consequences.<\/p>\n

Altogether, since the end of the Second World War there have been 215 episodes of rising military expenditure across more than 160 countries. On average, these episodes last for more than two and a half years and involve an increase in military spending equivalent to approximately 2.7 percentage points of GDP. One recurring feature concerns the way these increases are financed. In the initial stages, higher defence spending is financed primarily through additional borrowing, while increases in public revenues and the reallocation of other areas of public expenditure occur more gradually (see figure below).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Does Defence Spending Pay for Itself?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In the short run, an increase in defence spending acts as a stimulus to aggregate demand, although one concentrated in a relatively limited number of sectors. Economic activity benefits from higher public expenditure, with positive effects on both consumption and investment, particularly in industries directly linked to defence production and services. On average, an increase in defence spending equivalent to 1 percent of GDP translates into economic growth of a similar magnitude, although with considerable differences across countries and across the various episodes examined.<\/p>\n

This does not imply, however, that defence spending “pays for itself.” Even in these cases, its impact on the level of GDP generally remains limited and, over the medium term, tends to be accompanied by a deterioration in the public finances. Moreover, the concentration of expenditure in a small number of sectors, while reinforcing its impact on aggregate demand, also makes the reallocation of resources more difficult and may generate temporary inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

Financing Defence Spending and the Health of Public Finances<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If these are the short-term effects, what happens over the medium term? Within three years of the beginning of a major increase in military expenditure, the public deficit rises on average by approximately 2.6 percentage points of GDP, while the debt-to-GDP ratio increases by around 7 percentage points. When a country is already at war, the fiscal cost is even greater, with public debt rising by roughly 14 percentage points of GDP and real social expenditure declining.<\/p>\n

This is where the perceived duration of higher defence spending becomes crucial. When the increase is regarded as temporary, governments tend initially to rely primarily on additional borrowing. When, by contrast, the increase is perceived as permanent, financing it exclusively through debt soon becomes unsustainable, making structural measures unavoidable: either higher revenues or a reorganisation of public expenditure.<\/p>\n

In general, higher defence spending does not automatically imply lower expenditure in other areas. However, when it is financed primarily through budgetary reallocations, the trade-off between military and social expenditure becomes much more pronounced. Non-defence spending declines in real terms, while social expenditure\u2014including social protection, healthcare, and education\u2014may be reduced significantly, particularly where fiscal constraints are already severe.<\/p>\n

It is also important to recognise that the macroeconomic effects depend not only on the total amount devoted to defence, but also on how those resources are spent. Current expenditure on personnel, operations, and services tends to have a more immediate impact on domestic demand. Investment spending\u2014including investment in productive capacity and research and development\u2014can instead contribute over time to increasing the capital stock and supporting productivity, provided that it does not crowd out more productive investments and is designed in such a way as to generate positive spillovers for the wider economy.<\/p>\n

Europe’s Two Problems<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Global arms production is highly concentrated in a small number of countries, above all the United States. As a consequence, for countries that do not possess a well-developed domestic defence industry, a significant share of military expenditure is translated into imports. As highlighted in the Draghi Report, this represents a major weakness for many European countries, where imports account for approximately three-quarters of spending on military equipment. When a large share of defence expenditure is directed towards purchases from abroad, the stimulus to domestic demand is weakened, while external balances tend to deteriorate.<\/p>\n

To this must be added another challenge: the fragmentation of Europe’s defence markets and industrial supply chains, which limits economies of scale, specialisation, and the ability to retain within Europe a larger share of defence spending in the form of production, employment, and innovation.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, a coordinated increase in security spending at the European level assumes particular macroeconomic significance. Greater coordination\u2014through joint procurement and deeper integration of production chains\u2014can reduce the “leakages” associated with imports, generate economies of scale, improve the efficiency of public expenditure, and contain external imbalances.<\/p>\n

An integrated approach can also create more favourable conditions for defence-related investment by providing access to a larger and less fragmented market, with potentially positive effects on productivity over the medium and long term. From this perspective, defence spending is not merely a short-term demand stimulus but, if properly designed, can also contribute to strengthening Europe’s productive and technological capacity.<\/p>\n

Europe Needs More Coordination<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The increase in defence spending therefore represents a macroeconomic challenge that extends far beyond the short term. While it can support economic activity during the initial phase, over time fiscal costs and macroeconomic constraints inevitably emerge. The sustainability of these policy choices depends crucially on the expected duration of higher defence expenditure, the way it is financed, its composition, and the broader economic policy response.<\/p>\n

In Europe, all this makes coordination at the European Union level essential. Stronger coordination can improve the efficiency of defence spending through economies of scale and standardisation, helping to contain fiscal costs while reducing the leakage of expenditure abroad. Recent initiatives\u2014such as Security Action for Europe (SAFE), reforms designed to accelerate procurement procedures, and instruments aimed at strengthening the European defence industrial base\u2014move in this direction. However, they require sustained political commitment and effective implementation, including a more systematic use of joint procurement, harmonised standards, and deeper integration of the European defence market.<\/p>\n

At the same time, countries should incorporate the budgetary impact of their defence spending plans transparently into their medium-term fiscal frameworks.<\/p>\n

Where debt levels are already high, compensatory measures need to be identified at an early stage. Countries with greater fiscal space can rely more heavily on borrowing, but they should nevertheless adopt credible strategies to contain medium-term risks while remaining consistent with the European Union’s fiscal rules. This brings back to the forefront a classic dilemma of economic policy: guns versus butter\u2014the choice between defence spending and social expenditure. Once higher military spending is perceived as permanent and can no longer be financed through additional borrowing, adjustment requires structural measures. Under tight fiscal constraints, trade-offs become unavoidable: greater security inevitably means fewer resources for other budgetary priorities, including social protection, healthcare, and education.<\/p>\n

For Europe, the stakes are particularly high. The challenge concerns not only how much to spend, but also how to spend it and the degree of coordination with which those resources are deployed. A more integrated European approach can mitigate the conflict between defence and social expenditure by increasing the macroeconomic benefits of military spending while containing its medium-term costs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Andrea Presbitero is Deputy Division Chief in the European Department of the International Monetary Fund and Research Fellow at CEPR. He has been a researcher at the Marche Polytechnic University and Associate Professor of Economics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is Associate Editor of the IMF Economic Review.<\/em><\/p>\n

The views expressed in this article are strictly personal and do not necessarily represent those of the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.<\/em><\/p>\n

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