{"id":13808,"date":"2026-07-16T16:29:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=13808"},"modified":"2026-07-16T16:29:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:29:36","slug":"the-age-of-artificial-warfare-has-begun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2026\/07\/16\/the-age-of-artificial-warfare-has-begun\/","title":{"rendered":"The Age of Artificial Warfare Has Begun"},"content":{"rendered":"

Artificial intelligence and robotics have made extraordinary advances in the military domain. The evidence emerges almost daily from the front lines in Ukraine and from the U.S.-led campaign against Iran. Warfare\u2014and the way it is fought\u2014is changing before our eyes at remarkable speed. AI appears destined to take on crucial tasks, from analysing battlefield data and coordinating large-scale operations to deploying weapons without direct human control. Yet this raises profound questions. Do algorithms favour aggressors more than defenders? Should militaries invest in highly sophisticated weapon systems or in low-cost autonomous ones? And what role will cyber warfare play? These questions are particularly pressing for Europe, which risks falling dangerously behind in the race for military AI.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On 13 April 2026, uncrewed ground and aerial vehicles captured a Russian position along the front line without a single human soldier being present on the battlefield. Although still largely symbolic, this marked an important step toward a future in which robots may come to dominate warfare.<\/p>\n

For the time being, men and women remain an essential component of military power. In the war between Ukraine and Russia, soldiers continue to be indispensable to the war effort on both sides. Yet recent developments point toward a possible turning point: a transformation in which robotics and artificial intelligence may not only complement or replace troops but also assume an increasingly important role in controlling and supervising warfare.<\/p>\n

Why AI Offers Decisive Military Advantages<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In military conflicts, artificial intelligence offers several crucial advantages over human operators.<\/p>\n

First, it is capable of learning from and processing enormous quantities of information collected on the battlefield and in enemy territory with extraordinary speed. Whereas a soldier may struggle to draw meaningful conclusions from a single satellite image of an operational theatre, AI algorithms can effortlessly process millions of hours of drone footage. They also excel at identifying patterns that would escape human observation, making it possible to interpret an adversary’s movements and detect threats and opportunities at a speed previously unimaginable. For example, they can identify the signals of an imminent attack by analysing data that a human operator might never even have considered.<\/p>\n

Second, AI can manage operational networks on a scale and at a speed that far exceed human capabilities. This greatly facilitates complex operations involving multiple units\u2014army divisions, bomber formations, and drone swarms\u2014which have traditionally been constrained above all by coordination problems.<\/p>\n

Finally, artificial intelligence can be integrated directly into weapons systems such as drones, enabling them to operate without continuous assistance or supervision from a human operator. Besides reducing the risks to human life, this also lessens dependence on uninterrupted communications with command centres. As a result, practices such as electronic warfare and enemy jamming become less effective at disrupting their operation: even when isolated, these systems are capable of continuing to fight.<\/p>\n

Artificial intelligence is already a fundamental component of military conflicts in several parts of the world, not only in Ukraine. During the first twenty-four hours of the attack on Iran, the United States employed Palantir Technologies’ Maven Smart System, integrated with Claude, the AI model developed by Anthropic, to identify approximately one thousand targets and establish attack priorities.<\/p>\n

Despite the concerns raised over the use of autonomous weapons systems, neither the United States nor the other major powers appears willing to forgo the considerable military advantages that AI offers on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

Several crucial questions therefore arise: How will artificial intelligence transform the wars of the future? And what should Europe do to avoid falling dangerously behind in the new race for military AI?<\/p>\n

Does AI Benefit Aggressors or Defenders?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The extraordinary speed at which large language models such as ChatGPT and Claude continue to evolve suggests caution when attempting to predict future developments. Artificial intelligence is a general-purpose technology with the potential to revolutionise many different fields, and the interactions among these transformations could produce highly unpredictable outcomes. Nevertheless, it is already possible to identify several crucial areas of military activity that AI is likely to transform profoundly.<\/p>\n

The first question is whether AI favours those who attack or those who defend. Conventional wisdom suggests that when offensive operations become more advantageous, international peace becomes more fragile. From this perspective, artificial intelligence appears to favour aggressors. Since the First World War, modern warfare has revolved around the ability to conceal oneself while locating the enemy: if you can hide from your adversary, you can survive and stop them; if you can find them, you can destroy them and advance. AI algorithms excel precisely at analysing data and identifying targets.<\/p>\n

Could a dramatic increase in the efficiency of locating and destroying targets\u2014as demonstrated, for example, in Iran\u2014encourage aggressive regimes to accumulate offensive weapons and invade foreign countries?<\/p>\n

Not necessarily, according to a recent report by the RAND Corporation, because AI algorithms are just as effective at confusing adversaries as they are at identifying them. While they can process and interpret enormous quantities of data, they can also generate misleading information through robotic decoys, deceptive radio transmissions, false acoustic signals, and other forms of deception. Artificial intelligence can thicken the fog of war, preventing enemy algorithms from successfully identifying their targets.<\/p>\n

Whether defensive tactics become sufficiently powerful to counter\u2014or even surpass\u2014offensive capabilities will depend on the military context and on many other factors. In any event, countries such as the United States, which have so far concentrated on developing expensive weapons systems with exceptional target-identification capabilities, will soon be compelled to strengthen their own defensive capacities as their adversaries become increasingly proficient at offensive operations through the use of artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n

Is the Future Low-Cost Autonomous Weapons?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Another crucial question concerns the type of advantage that AI is likely to favour: quantity or quality. In other words, will it strengthen armed forces equipped with a small number of highly sophisticated systems, or those capable of deploying large numbers of inexpensive autonomous weapons?<\/p>\n

The most recent evidence points toward the growing importance of what has become known as “affordable mass precision.” These are low-cost weapon systems that can be produced on a large scale while achieving relatively high accuracy thanks to AI software. Drones provide the clearest illustration of this trend. By contrast, high-end systems have already revealed certain limitations, as became evident during the war in Iran, where the United States and its allies employed Patriot interceptors\u2014costing millions of dollars each\u2014to destroy Shahed drones worth only a few tens of thousands of dollars. It is therefore hardly surprising that, in this context, the Gulf states have sought closer cooperation with Ukraine, which has accumulated extensive experience in producing inexpensive yet highly effective drones for the defence of its own airspace.<\/p>\n

Future advances in artificial intelligence are likely to strengthen these technologies even further, as demonstrated by the recent choices made by several Western governments and companies. One recent example comes from the war in Iran, where the United States deployed low-cost Lucas drones, developed by reverse-engineering Iranian Shahed drones\u2014that is, by deconstructing the original design in order to reproduce it in an improved form. At the same time, companies such as Anduril Industries in the United States and Helsing in Germany are focusing on the development of autonomous, uncrewed, relatively inexpensive weapon systems that can be manufactured on a large scale\u2014a capability that may prove decisive in prolonged conflicts.<\/p>\n

Nor should one overlook the fact that artificial intelligence is also reshaping cyber warfare. Consider Claude Mythos, the model recently introduced by Anthropic, which specialises in identifying software vulnerabilities and supporting hacking activities (see the article by Emanuele Borgonovo and Andrea Rigoni in this issue). Although there are many reasons for concern, numerous analysts believe that, in cyberspace, AI may ultimately favour defence more than attack because it enables organisations to test their own systems and identify vulnerabilities before they can be exploited. As in every other domain, however, much will depend on the context, and it cannot be ruled out that the evolution of algorithms will eventually provide hackers with a significant advantage.<\/p>\n

Alongside the transformation of armed forces driven by automation, the importance of strategy, expertise, and military training is also destined to grow. In increasingly complex operational environments, high-quality human leadership and supervision will remain decisive factors in determining the outcome of conflicts.<\/p>\n

Europe’s Position in the Race for Military AI<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Despite the uncertainty that still surrounds the future of artificial intelligence, one conclusion is already close to certain: it will fundamentally redefine the meaning of military power. Remaining outside the race for military AI would expose Europe to a potentially fatal strategic weakness.<\/p>\n

In this respect, Europe finds itself in a particularly difficult position. Its leading AI company, Mistral AI, has a market valuation far below that of American competitors such as OpenAI. Little is known about Chinese AI, but it is evident that its development is proceeding rapidly. At a time when NATO faces growing difficulties and transatlantic relations are increasingly uncertain, Europe must therefore build an autonomous capability capable of standing on its own in a world characterised by strategic\u2014and potentially military\u2014competition among the great powers.<\/p>\n

Maintaining a domestic AI ecosystem is essential for several reasons. First, in future international conflicts artificial intelligence may become a strategic bottleneck. If AI becomes a central component of technologies throughout the economy, countries lacking their own expertise and infrastructure will inevitably become dependent on the bargaining power of the major powers that develop and control these systems. Second, in wartime the ability to adapt military technologies rapidly to battlefield requirements is essential for survival and victory. Knowing that European states possess the capacity to develop state-of-the-art autonomous weapons systems would itself constitute a powerful deterrent against an aggressive Russian government.<\/p>\n

In ongoing research with Olivier Kooi of the London School of Economics, we propose that European governments and the European Union use industrial policy to steer private-sector investment toward projects that reflect Europe’s geopolitical interests, including the strengthening of capabilities in artificial intelligence. It is true that European technology companies are currently less competitive than their American counterparts, yet they still retain considerable value in terms of deterrence and international bargaining power. From this perspective, supporting equity investment in European AI companies and, as recommended by the Draghi Report, increasing public expenditure on research and innovation represent important instruments for strengthening the continent’s strategic self-sufficiency. For these measures to be genuinely effective, however, they must be accompanied by strong coordination of policies at the European Union level.<\/p>\n

Artificial intelligence may also offer an advantage in another respect. Military service and conscription have become increasingly unpopular in many European countries\u2014including Italy\u2014and autonomous weapons could help compensate for personnel shortages within the armed forces. In the event of future conflicts, robots and AI-based systems could therefore support\u2014or partly replace\u2014a population that is becoming progressively less willing to fight. This transformation, however, must be introduced gradually. Adopting radically new technologies too quickly could create confusion and disorientation within military organisations. At the same time, Europe will have to take into account the parallel strategic adaptations of its potential adversaries\u2014such as Russia\u2014which will inevitably respond to the evolution of our own capabilities and military doctrines.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, everything will depend both on the future progress of artificial intelligence and, above all, on Europe’s ability to develop an autonomous, dynamic, and competitive AI ecosystem, independent of the other major powers. Otherwise, it risks losing the race for military AI\u2014with serious consequences for the continent’s freedom and economic prosperity.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bal\u00e1zs Mark\u00f3 is a PhD candidate in the Department of Economics at Bocconi University. His research focuses on the macroeconomics of defence and climate change.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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