{"id":2136,"date":"2024-05-16T19:45:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T17:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=2136"},"modified":"2024-05-27T17:58:28","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T15:58:28","slug":"should-the-european-union-decouple-from-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/16\/should-the-european-union-decouple-from-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Should the European Union Decouple from China?"},"content":{"rendered":"

With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan, the division of the world into geopolitical blocs seems irreversible. This scenario gives trade policies through which countries regulate international exchanges a political and moral significance. Europe is reacting to these changes by using trade policy to safeguard its democracies, enhancing its degree of economic and strategic autonomy relative to the rest of the world.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Italian and European Trade Policy<\/b><\/h3>\n

Let’s debunk a myth: Italy does not have an independent trade policy; it has the European Union’s policy. Since the 1950s, trade policy between countries has been entirely centralized and directly managed by Brussels. This is beneficial because, in a world of trade blocs, it is far better to be part of a large European market than to manage one’s own trade relations with the rest of the world. What does being part of the European Union entail? Firstly, the so-called single market. Italy cannot raise any commercial barriers of any kind against other EU members. Any goods or services produced in another EU country can freely enter Italy, even if the factory is owned by Chinese or American interests. Moreover, the rules in relations with third countries are the same for all EU countries. Therefore, the same tariffs apply to Chinese solar panels and the same rules on the import of American meat. The European Commission regulates trade with non-European countries. This does not exclude each member state from promoting its goods to third countries, as happens during bilateral meetings between Italy and the United States, for example.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Controversial Phenomenon<\/b><\/h3>\n

Despite the centralized nature of European trade policy, citizens, not only Italians, attribute increasing political significance to it, as well as significant economic relevance. People’s feelings towards globalization have always been mixed, and opinions on its benefits and costs could not be more varied. Those who believe in the virtues of exchange have no doubt that the benefits outweigh the costs. Like individuals, countries as a whole gain from trading with each other. They can specialize in producing goods where they have advantages, such as technology, labour, or natural resources. In recent decades, Western countries have been able to import goods produced at low cost, for example from China, or energy resources at competitive prices, for example from Russia. This has allowed them to improve their standard of living, keep inflation low, and specialize in the production of goods and services that require more skilled labour or more advanced technologies. Countries also gain when they trade with similar countries, as happens within the European Union. Trade promotes competition, stimulates innovation, and allows for more variety of similar goods. Certainly, there are winners and losers. The winners are those whose incomes increase because they are directly or indirectly tied to exports. The losers are those whose incomes decrease because they are exposed to foreign competition. Supporters of free trade, and with them most economists, have no doubt that the benefits are so much broader than the disadvantages that there is room for compensatory policies to support those who lose.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moral Questions About Globalization<\/b><\/h3>\n

Why then do many view globalization with suspicion? And why does the scenario of global trade relations currently appear gloomier than in the past? One reason is the increasingly widespread feeling that political and economic blocs hostile to Western countries are being created, endangering their security. The dream that the links between countries resulting from globalization could unite the world and make it more peaceful may have definitively vanished with the war in Ukraine. Trust in China is at an all-time low due to its stance on the war and tensions over Taiwan. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East jeopardizes the stability of supplies of raw materials and manufactured goods along the Suez Canal routes. After Covid had severely tested supplies of goods and raw materials for health reasons (the so-called “global value chain”), today those same supplies are subject to extremely high political risks. Another reason is that people are becoming increasingly sensitive to the “moral” aspects related to globalization. Is it right for a Western worker, perhaps poorly qualified, who has lost his job due to Chinese competition, to be forced to live on state subsidies or to radically change his life to do another job? Is it right that Indian or Vietnamese companies are more competitive because their workers have less protection than Western ones and therefore cost less? Is it right for rich countries to import goods produced with polluting technologies that are banned in Europe or the United States? And, even assuming that trade increases the welfare of all, is it right that it may contribute to increasing the gap between rich and poor? Finally, there is an increasing concern: is it right that our trading partners are ruthless autocracies or that promote or support bloody wars? Certainly, every reader has their own view on these aspects of globalization. But to “old” moral reasons related to the distribution of the benefits of globalization or unfair competition, “new” ones are added, related to global pollution and the security of our democracies. And these latter concerns are cross-cutting, finding agreement among everyone.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Fragmentation of the World into Political and Commercial Blocs<\/b><\/h3>\n

How does Europe react? And how does the entire West react? Let’s start by saying that global trade has taken very hard hits starting in 2018, the year of the trade crisis between the United States of America led by Donald Trump and China, fuelled by issues related to national security and Trump’s view that Beijing was too protectionist towards American imports. Immediately afterwards, the pandemic reduced global trade in goods by 13%, a drop never seen before. A year later, the recovery of trade was compromised by the war in Ukraine, with consequences for global demand and sanctions. Global trade in goods thus remained stagnant from the early months of 2021 and decreased relative to GDP (volume data, World Trade Organization Global Trade Outlook, 4\/2024). Value data have a negative sign. The sharp decline of Russia (28% less in 2023, due to the fall in gas and oil prices) and the decrease of China (-5%, caused by a heavy devaluation of the yuan) stand out. Trade of services is growing, but at a slower pace than in the past. Globalization seems to have stopped increasing, without, however, reversing direction. Something interesting emerges when looking at so-called “trade blocs.” Here, clear signals of “decoupling” (disengagement) between Western countries and China are evident. Data from the World Trade Organization report shows the trend of trade between the “Western” and “Eastern” blocs compared to trade within the two groups of countries. The blocs are defined by grouping together United Nations countries that vote similarly on international policy issues. While from 2015 to 2021 trade between blocs was on average 10% higher than trade within the blocs, from 2021 it is 20% lower. In 2023, European imports from China decreased by 15%, and American ones by 22%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trade within and between hypothetical geopolitical blocs and the difference of between bloc and within bloc trade<\/b><\/h3>\n

Trade within and between hypothetical geopolitical blocs<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Difference of between bloc and within bloc trade<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Note: Seasonally adjusted series. Russian Federation, Belarus, and Ukraine are excluded. Left-hand series indexed at 100 in January 2022. Right-hand series indexed at 0 in January 2022.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Source: Michael Blanga-Gubbay e Stela Rub\u00ednov\u00e1 \u201cIs the global economy fragmenting?\u201d, World Trade Organization, 2023.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Trade Only with Friendly Countries?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Both European and American multinationals are beginning to prefer “friendly” countries. They invest in Mexico, India, Norway, Morocco, Turkey, Thailand, and Vietnam, particularly when they need to use advanced technologies. This is called “re-shoring” (relocation); some call it “friend-shoring” (locating among friends). Apple has moved 20% of its Chinese iPhone production to India. German multinationals are organizing to make their Chinese subsidiaries more technologically independent because “you never know.” The US government has heavily restricted the sale of strategic technology to the Chinese. With the Inflation Reduction Act programme, the Biden administration offers very generous subsidies to American multinationals that bring back home the production of goods considered strategic or produced with advanced technologies. What could happen if China gained an advantage in artificial intelligence is frightening.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reducing Dependence to Safeguard Democracies<\/b><\/h3>\n

The European Commission under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen is carrying forward risk reduction policies (“de-risking”), aimed at limiting the dangers of dependence on China in strategic sectors. In 2022, Beijing extracted three-fifths of the world’s rare earths and today the EU imports 60% of its lithium needs, 80% of cobalt, and 97% of chloramphenicol (used for the production of numerous antibiotics) from China. The Critical Raw Material Act provides that by 2030 the EU will import less than 65% less than of its needs for each of the “strategic” raw materials (used for the production of electronic components, pharmaceutical products, and essential goods for the security of the Union) from a single third country. Since China declared “limitless friendship” with Russia, the EU has frozen the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, a project that envisaged strengthening relations with China in many industrial sectors. Anyone who had doubts about the usefulness of Europe should try to imagine what Italy could do in this scenario, if it were alone and outside the EU.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Certainly, achieving economic and strategic independence from China is not easy. Europe depends on Chinese imports much more than the United States. 10% of Germany’s GDP is made up of exports to China and turnover in China of German companies. The percentage is more than 5% for France and the Netherlands and 2% for Italy. But it is not a matter of drastically cutting economic relations but instead a question of rebalancing forces; diversifying sources of supply; avoiding giving up all control over supplies; and remaining autonomous on a technological level. In short, to increase one’s degree of economic and political security. In this framework, it is possible to read the recent interventions of Mario Draghi, and his report on European competitiveness expected in July will focus on these themes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why Now?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Why now? Because after the war in Ukraine, nothing is as before. Russia and China have shown their cards. They claim the role of superpowers and do so in contrast to the Western bloc. The risk is high that, as Vladimir Putin did with gas, Xi Jinping could use the dependence of Western countries on Chinese imports to pursue his political objectives. Taiwan produces two-thirds of the world’s semiconductors. China will probably never invade Taiwan, but control over those industries would bring the West to its knees, economically and politically. The mere possibility of this happening puts Western democracies at a disadvantage compared to China.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Price to Pay<\/b><\/h3>\n

The cost of decoupling from China is enormous, and it is higher for Europe than for the United States. The International Monetary Fund has calculated that the creation of two opposing blocs would reduce global GDP by 2% in the long term, while The Economist estimates that the damage would not be less than 5%. And poor countries, excluded from access to the most advanced technologies, would pay the heaviest price. It is likely that such a sharp fragmentation will not occur, but we are already seeing some partial effects of the new balance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Environmental Agenda and the Green Countries Club<\/b><\/h3>\n

It is difficult, but not impossible, that in this framework Europe can hope to agree on an environmental agenda with China. In Europe, polluting costs more than elsewhere. Companies pay a high price for the right to emit CO2. They are therefore disadvantaged compared to those that produce abroad, with the consequence of partially nullifying the effect of European environmental policies. Not only that: the other effect is to increase the incentive for European companies to produce elsewhere, called “carbon leakage” in the jargon. Pollution taxes are fair taxes: many Europeans have understood this, even if perhaps not all of them. By 2026, the EU has established to introduction of a duty on imports of goods produced with technologies more polluting than those in Europe, so that those who produce abroad pay the same taxes as those who produce in Europe. The Carbon Border Tariff will hit companies that export aluminium, cement, electricity, fertilizers, and other high-energy-absorbing goods to Europe. It will have the effect of inducing other countries to increase pollution taxation. The United States has announced its intention to agree a common tax with the EU on polluting imports of aluminium, but must first create its own emissions market. It is likely that in the future other countries will want to align, gradually giving life to a club of green countries. China has created its own market for pollution permits, but the tax is decidedly low. Perhaps precisely on environmental issues, it is possible to resume dialogue with Beijing, which is today at its lowest since the 1990s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Francesco Passarelli<\/strong> is Full Professor of Economics at the University of Turin and a Fellow at the Collegio Carlo Alberto. He has also taught at Bocconi University and Dartmouth College in the United States.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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