{"id":2154,"date":"2024-05-16T20:26:56","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T18:26:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=2154"},"modified":"2024-05-27T18:01:58","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T16:01:58","slug":"from-populism-to-post-populism-the-future-of-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/16\/from-populism-to-post-populism-the-future-of-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"From populism to post-populism: the future of Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"

With populism, the idea of Europe, of a supranational sovereignty, has come under attack. Especially in Italy we have seen various versions of this phenomenon. However, the populist wave may soon run of out of steam, making way for a new phase, that of post-populism. This is no time to be caught off guard.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

If Europe is the Silicon Valley of populism, Italy is its Cupertino (or Palo Alto, depending on your taste). In the form sometimes of unicorns, sometimes of start-ups, from Beppe Grillo to Roberto Vannacci, we have experienced all variants of this phenomenon to a certain extent. Populism is defined as a <\/span>\u2018light\u2019<\/span><\/i> ideology, based on the Manichean contrast between the purity of the people and the corruption of the elites, so much so that it must \u201cattach\u201d itself to other, heavier ideologies or narratives in order to survive: nationalism, post-fascism, liberalism, welfarism, charismatic leadership. There is no need to name names to understand that in Italy, we have had it all. Even in terms of characters: self-made tycoons, television personalities, leaders who have climbed the ranks of parties on the fringes of traditional politics, technocrats called upon to save the nation. The same goes for the tools: television, social media, foreign interference, organising dissent among those defeated by economic change. In other countries, populism has successfully mixed some of these ingredients. We have tasted them all, often in their pure form, which is why Italy is a unique laboratory for studying the causes and trajectories of populism.<\/span><\/p>\n

The causes of populism<\/b><\/h3>\n

Populism is certainly not exclusive to Europe, <\/span>neither now nor throughout history<\/span>. <\/span>The term was first used<\/span> in Russia in the late 19th century, then in the United States in the early 20th century. However, the term becomes famous thanks to Latin America in the 1960s and 1970s. <\/span>Only in the first decades of the 2000s did <\/span>Europe become the Silicon Valley of populism, albeit non-exclusively: consider Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro. Why Europe? And why Italy? The answer is political. And it involves both the crisis of nation-state sovereignty and the crisis of parties as mass organizations. Maastricht and Tangentopoli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Empirical studies on populism fight among themselves over whether its causes are economic (loss of status due to globalisation) or cultural (loss of meaning due secularisation). Fewer are those who point to its political causes: the inability of Western politics to rewrite the social contract after 1989. The end of the Cold War and the crumbling of those intermediate bodies that helped traditional party consensus (labour unions under the blows of globalisation and parishes under those of secularisation) have increased the volatility of voting choices and the instability of party systems. Protest voting has become less costly. The multiple crises that have hit Europe in recent decades – from migration to the economy – have done the rest, creating space for new \u2018<\/span>political entrepreneurs<\/span><\/i>\u2019, as the title of a book by Catherine De Vries and Sara Hobolt puts it. These\u00a0 \u201centrepreneurs\u201d have exploited the populist ideology, most often attaching it to xenophobia, far-right nationalism and anti-Europeanism, and sometimes even to left-wing anti-austerity and welfarist platforms (Syriza, Podemos, to some extent the Cinquestelle in Italy).<\/span><\/p>\n

The rise of populism in Europe<\/b><\/h3>\n

Europe was the perfect place to feed the populist culture. Its lack of political-electoral legitimacy at the top of the chain of government; the absence of intermediate bodies and of a fully European public discussion; the sophisticated construction of Treaties and transnational agencies, by nature the result of bargaining among elites: all these elements ended up alienating a wide swath of the electorate, who were suffering the costs of economic change firsthand. Of course, the inability of nation states to solve the new global problems is not just a European issue, but here it has found an easy scapegoat: the Brussels bureaucracy and its laws far removed from people\u2019s lives. It is paradoxical that the greatest effort to build transnational sovereignty has itself come under fire. But in politics you are judged by the results you bring home today, not by those of the past (peace and prosperity on the continent) or the efforts you make to produce new ones. If you don\u2019t solve my problems, you are my problem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Italy made a bad situation worse, destroying the traditional parties without rebuilding a political-institutional framework capable of giving stability, legitimacy and effectiveness to the electoral game. Along with the dirty bathwater of Tangentopoli, we threw out the baby constituted by mass political organisations cemented by a collective mission. Anti-politics has thus reached stratospheric levels. In an empirical study, Arnstein Aassve, Gianmarco Daniele and Marco Le Moglie reveal that those who socialised with politics in the Tangentopoli years, still today, have less trust in politics and are more inclined to vote for populist parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

The upcoming European elections<\/b><\/h3>\n

What should we expect from the European elections in June 2024? In recent months Simon Hix, Professor of political science at the European University Institute, has been producing studies and projections on electoral trends and their possible impacts on the political balance in Brussels. Figure 1 reworks his data to summarise populist voting trends over the past five years in a number of countries. Behind the changes in quantity, there is a change in quality: European populism is not only consolidating, but shifting to the right. Now that the most prominent experiences of left-wing populism (Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain) or \u201camorphous\u201d populism (the Cinquestelle in Italy), which have largely grown in reaction to the excesses of macroeconomic austerity, have deflated, the success stories are all on the far right. In June, <\/span>we can expect an electoral strengthening of populist parties, <\/span>especially those to the right of the European People\u2019s Party, which have thus far always been kept out of the grand coalitions that have governed the European Union.<\/span><\/p>\n

The populist vote in Europe in the 2019 and 2024 elections<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: elaborations on data from Simon Hix and Abdul Noury, \u201cThe 2024 European Parliament Elections: Potential Outcome and Consequences,\u201d Sieps, April 2024.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

These trends will not only affect the choice of who will chair the Commission, but also legislative decisions, as political coalitions in Brussels form and dissolve over individual issues. It is to be expected that decisions on ecological transition, civil rights and social spending will shift to the right.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But beyond policies it will be politics that changes. Many movements to the right of the People\u2019s Party, starting with Giorgia Meloni\u2019s Fratelli d\u2019Italia, which seems to want to position itself as the new mediator between the right and the centre-right, could enter the European Union\u2019s governing space. This dynamic will change Europe, unfortunately, probably not for the better. But it will also change the face of these movements, which will increasingly struggle to blame everything on Brussels, ending up assuming an institutional form and coming to terms with reality, like the Italian Prime Minister.<\/span><\/p>\n

How do we fight populism?<\/b><\/h3>\n

At the end of April, a major conference organised by CEPR and the Kiel Institute was held in Berlin, provocatively titled, \u201cHow do we Fight Populism?\u201d The studies presented mostly showed the strategies that do not work. Grand coalitions do not pay off; indeed, they end up reinforcing the populists\u2019 claim of otherness and their electoral success. Accommodation, that is, the attempt by traditional parties to change their position\u00a0 by incorporating some anti-immigration and anti-establishment positions, does not work, because the original is always better than the copy. The strategy of fighting fire with fire, branding populists as opportunists and portraying them as a new elite that are uninterested in citizens\u2019 problems, may produce some results in the immediate term, pushing voters inclined to vote for populists toward abstention. But the strategy has counterproductive effects in the medium term, as those votes do not return to the traditional parties, but are then taken by new populists, perhaps more radical and aggressive than the previous ones.<\/span><\/p>\n

The only path left is to implement policies that address social malaise, reversing the trend of cutting local services that has left entire territories without social safeguards, and to spread positive narratives about politics. There is as yet no empirical evidence to fully support this hypothesis, if only because it takes time for them to take root and win the battle for cultural hegemony. Populist theses also did not arise overnight: they come from years of cultural guerrilla warfare on the fringes of politics, hoping for the right time (or the right crisis) to turn into electoral consensus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Post-populism: what lies ahead<\/b><\/h3>\n

There are some structural dynamics, however, that may accelerate the timeline. The same volatility that populists have benefited from will soon make their strategies obsolete. Their electoral success will turn them into something different, normalizing them or making them even more dangerous for liberal democracies. The dynamics of politics do not sleep. Beyond the success or failure of the traditional parties\u2019 strategies, the populist wave, at least as we have known it, is bound to fade. It won’t be long now. We must prepare for post-populism.<\/span><\/p>\n

I understand the scepticism: but how? We just said that right-wing populists are about to make a splash in the European elections in June 2024. And Donald Trump could be re-elected president of the United States in November. How can one predict the end of the populist wave at this political juncture? One can and must. For two reasons; the first is that all political cycles come to an end, from the social democratic wave to the green wave. The second is that precisely when they reach the apex, seize power, and assume an institutional form, political movements lay the groundwork for being overcome. Populism will be no exception. And the Italian laboratory of recent years is there to remind us of this.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is not to say that what awaits us next is desirable (think of Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s trajectory in Hungary). Certainly, a vital space will open up for re-intermediation, the legitimisation of new transnational sovereignties, the return of politics, new answers to old problems. But the risk will remain that the absence of alternatives will permanently empty the spaces of politics, making liberal democracies empty shells at the mercy of crypto-authoritarian power dynamics. In short, post-populism is a crossroads. On the one hand, there are citizens who control politicians. And on the other, politicians who control citizens. This is the battle that is already taking place behind the scenes. Those who do not deal with it are destined to lose.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tommaso Nannicini<\/strong> is a Professor at the European University Institute, currently on leave from Bocconi University. He served as Undersecretary to the Presidency of the Council of Ministers in the 17th legislature and as a Senator in the 18th legislature.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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