{"id":2171,"date":"2024-05-16T21:02:41","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T19:02:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=2171"},"modified":"2024-05-27T18:03:15","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T16:03:15","slug":"the-vote-of-the-younger-generation-does-not-sway-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/16\/the-vote-of-the-younger-generation-does-not-sway-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"The vote of the younger generation does not sway politics."},"content":{"rendered":"

More than 23 million young people are eligible to vote for the first time in the 2024 European elections. Polls and statistics indicate that many will choose to abstain. This is due to a lack of trust in traditional parties, which seem to focus only on older voters. Instead, these parties should invest in the future, with credible proposals for the new generations aimed at younger voters.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Between June 6 and 9, 2024, nearly 366 million voters from 27 European nations will be invited to the polls to elect their representatives to the European Parliament. This will be the first time voting for more than 23 million young Europeans: 2.8 million in Italy, 4 million in France, and 5.1 million in Germany. In Austria, Germany, Belgium, and Malta, even sixteen-year-olds will be able to vote. In Greece, seventeen-year-olds will be eligible.<\/span><\/p>\n

The youth vote has always sparked great interest, especially in post-election political analyses. After the Brexit referendum, where there was a low turn-out of young voters but those who did vote were heavily in favour of the UK remaining in Europe, it was discussed at length.\u00a0 Had young people, and also the not-so young, voted <\/span>en masse<\/span><\/i>, at a higher level than is usually seen in political elections in the United Kingdom, perhaps their pro-Europe vote would have been sufficient to keep the UK in the EU. Historically, however, the electoral participation of young people is lower than that of older voters. For example, in the last European elections (2019),\u00a0 42% of eligible people under 25 voted \u2013 an increased percentage than in the previous election, but still much lower than the overall voting average of 50.66%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Europe as seen by the young: surveys and proposals<\/b><\/p>\n

In 2022, marking the European Year of Youth, the European Commission \u2013 through Eurostat \u2013 conducted a survey on youth and democracy. A comforting picture emerged. Young people hope that their voices reach political representatives and rulers and believe that voting in elections and using social media are the most effective ways to be heard. Their connection with other European countries is strong: almost 40% of the young respondents have participated in professional, study, volunteer, or sports activities in other countries within the Union. Another study, this time by Eurobarometer, conducted in 2019, highlights the priorities for young European voters:\u00a0 two-thirds prioritise protecting the environment and fighting climate change, more than half prioritise improving education and fighting poverty and economic and social inequalities. The EU plays an active role in stimulating the political life of young people and bringing them closer to European institutions. In May 2022, the European Parliament put forward a proposal that harmonises electoral laws for European elections among different EU countries and allows lowering the minimum voting age to 16 years, where compatible with the constitutional rules in individual states. The proposal would also lower the minimum age for candidacy to 18 years, as is already the case in 15 EU countries. Currently, in Italy and Greece, you must be 25 years old to be elected to the European Parliament; in Romania, 23 years; and in nine other Union countries, the age is 21 years. However, the positive narrative that emerges from surveys, documents, initiatives, and European proposals seems to paint an over-positive picture that is far from reality. In 2019, the average age of elected MEPs was 50 years, but in several countries, it was much higher, as highlighted in figure 1, which relates the age of the electorate and MEPs. Only Denmark and France sent one or more representatives under 25 years old to Strasbourg. More than half of EU countries do not elect politicians under 30 years old to Parliament. Not to mention that the bill that could lead to a reduction in the ages of both candidates and voters is stalled at the European Council and is very unlikely to become law.<\/span><\/p>\n

MEPs are aging faster than voters<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The reference year for age is 2023. The median voter is the voter located exactly in the middle of the age distribution of the electorate; in other words, 50% of voters are younger and 50% are older than him\/her. The same applies to the median MEP with reference to MEPs.\u00a0 Source: HowTheyVote.eu for the age of MEPs, Eurostat for the age of the electorate.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Young people and Europe: from Covid to geopolitical crises<\/b><\/h3>\n

What is the everyday reality for those young European voters who are about to vote? Political science literature suggests that people’s political awareness is formed precisely as they approach their first voting experience. The invitation to vote can be the impetus for young people to seek information and to form more precise opinions on economic, social, and foreign policy choices. These opinions will be influenced by the issues that have been most salient in recent months or years. For the young voters of 2024, key issues are climate change, Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, and the crisis in the Middle East. But there is also concern about the difficulties of entering the job market, and the increase in economic inequalities. In some countries, primarily in Italy, the management of the pandemic has certainly not increased young people’s trust in institutions. They were immediately \u2013 and wrongly \u2013 identified as the spreaders and subsequently, during the long months of lockdown, they were forced to give up the social aspects of school, friends, and sports. In many countries, this has created a growing dissatisfaction with the choices of the governments in power during the pandemic. And alongside dissatisfaction with governments, scepticism about the functioning of democracies has also increased. In countries, such as Italy and Spain, where restrictive measures and the narrative against the young were stronger, there is a real risk that the younger generations have drifted away from politics \u2013 and in particular from traditional parties. This could translate into an increase in abstentionism, already high among the young, even in European elections. The bond felt by the young with Europe varies greatly between different EU countries. From a survey conducted in 2023 by Eurobarometer on citizenship and democracy, it appears that in the countries of Europe 15, the percentage of young people (aged between 18 and 30 years) who consider themselves to be fully European citizens is lower than that of the elderly (over 65 years): 62.8% compared to 67.4%. That difference is particularly evident in Greece (52.6% against 72%), Finland (59.1% against 69.7%), Sweden (59.7% against 69.7%), Spain (69.3% against 78.3%), and Belgium (47% against 56%). In the other twelve EU countries, however, it is the young who feel more European: 65.4% against 62.6%. This is particularly the case in the Baltic Republics: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Among the young, the sense of belonging to Europe thus seems to decrease in countries historically at the centre of the Union and increase in those that joined later and are geographically more peripheral. Abstentionism might follow a similar pattern.<\/span><\/p>\n

Percentage of voters for age groups: Italy<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: OECD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Percentage of voters for age groups: EU-15<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: EU-15 includes Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, Sweden.\u00a0 Source: OECD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Percentage of voters for age groups: other EU states<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The group of countries includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia.\u00a0 Source: OECD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Between abstention and populist vote<\/b><\/h3>\n

The fight against climate change, particularly relevant among younger voters, could counter the trend towards abstention. Support for environmental policies, such as green investment programmes, the introduction of higher taxes on fossil fuels, and the ban on combustion engines is widespread among the younger generations. However, this support is conditioned. It also depends on the ability of institutions to moderate the redistributive effects that environmental policies risk having and that tend to disadvantage especially some less affluent segments of the population. It depends on young people having trust in the ability of institutions to impose and enforce environmental policies, which have a trans-national scope and therefore require international agreements. Greater trust in a Europe capable of conducting effective environmental policy might therefore push young voters towards a vote of support for the fight against climate change. Abstention is not the only form of protest that young people can undertake against politics and traditional parties. For several years now, younger generations in various European countries have been dealing with the increasing economic insecurity of a dual labour market, where permanent jobs are increasingly the privilege of senior workers, while young people are left with internships and temporary jobs. These factors can create a climate of isolation and distrust towards traditional parties, pushing young people towards populist parties. In the last elections to the national parliaments of many European states \u2013 for example, Portugal, the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Germany \u2013 even young people have started to vote for populist parties. Often, what moves them towards these organisations is a feeling of disadvantage and the lack of trust in the solutions proposed by traditional parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Girls are more radical<\/b><\/h3>\n

In recent times, gender has also become part of the individual characteristics that divide young voters at the time of voting. According to a study by the Economist, which uses sample data from 20 OECD countries for the year 2020, there is an ongoing phenomenon of ideological polarisation among young people (18-29 years old) of different genders. Women have shifted towards progressive positions. Men towards more conservative positions. An ideological difference between men and women \u2013 with the latter more favourable to welfare policies \u2013 has existed for a long time and not only among the young. However, radicalisation among the youngest is recent and is very broad. For example, it is estimated that the ideological position difference between young men and young women is twice as large as that existing between graduates and non-graduates. The motivations behind these divergences are also new. Younger women believe that the gains made by previous generations of women along the path to gender equality are insufficient, and they quote data on wage differences and career opportunities that persist in all countries today. On the contrary, perhaps from fear of foul of the dominant culture of political correctness, younger men tend to be less explicit when presenting their anxieties. Yet, many young men fear having to pay for the sins of their fathers, who had relegated women to subordinate and poorly-paid roles in the labour market, finding themselves competing in a market where pink quotas and preferences for hiring women may unjustly disadvantage them. Paradoxically, this anti-feminist sentiment risks being stronger in the younger generations, where women have reached higher levels of education than men and gender equality is greater, than among the older cohorts, where men have consolidated positions and therefore feel less threatened. The radicalisation of ideological positions risks turning into political polarisation. Young men might find it easier to vote for conservative parties that make their voices heard and present their cases in public debate.<\/span><\/p>\n

In elections, young people count for little<\/b><\/h3>\n

The generation that is about to vote for the first time at the European elections in June 2024 has lived through an adolescence with exceptional and tragic events, such as Covid-19 and a war on the doorstep of the EU. But political parties may show minimal interest, because demography ensures young people are of little relevance. In France, Germany, Italy, Spain (and other EU states), voters over 65 are far more numerous than those under 35, as shown in the three figures. Moreover, young people go to the polls less than older voters. The situation is only slightly better in the younger countries of the Union. But parties should pay more attention to the political needs of the youngest, because the choice of the first party or the decision to abstain can have lasting effects on people’s future political and democratic awareness. They should also focus efforts on proposing credible policies for their future \u2013 in education, in the labour market, for economic growth, and for environmental protection. And they should avoid identity and divisive messages. In an aging Europe, the vote of the young does not shift today’s political balances. However, traditional parties should learn to invest also for the future. A young person who chooses abstention or to vote for a populist party is unlikely to return to traditional parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vincenzo Galasso<\/strong> is professor of economics at Bocconi University and director of the department of Social and Political Sciences. He is also director of the Analysis in Pension Economics unit of the Baffi Center.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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