{"id":2179,"date":"2024-05-16T21:09:37","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T19:09:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=2179"},"modified":"2024-05-27T18:04:23","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T16:04:23","slug":"is-the-sovereignist-vote-a-wasted-vote","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/16\/is-the-sovereignist-vote-a-wasted-vote\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Sovereignist Vote a Wasted Vote?"},"content":{"rendered":"

So far, populist nationalist parties have been unable to influence the deliberations of the European Parliament. This is true even when it came to blocking European integration. If they cannot find a synthesis between national interests and supranational choices, they are doomed to irrelevance in the next legislative term as well.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Populist nationalist parties (henceforth \u201csovereignist\u201d) are characterized by their emphasis on national interests over the objectives of supranational bodies. A fitting example of this attitude is the slogan of the Lega for the 2024 European elections: \u201cMore Italy, Less Europe.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Why do European Parliament Members form groups?<\/b><\/h3>\n

To be influential in the European Parliament, it is necessary to form coalitions with parties from other countries. It is no coincidence that there are eight political families in the Parliament in Strasbourg: European People\u2019s Party, Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, Renew Europe, Greens\/European Free Alliance, Identity and Democracy, European Conservatives and Reformists, European United Left\/Nordic Green Left (GUE\/NGL), and the Non-Attached Members. These act as parliamentary groups with their party discipline, in the same way national groups do. Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) band together because a single national party would always be in the minority and would rarely have the power to change the outcome of a vote and thus influence decisions. In other words, without forming coalitions, a national party risks becoming completely irrelevant in the deliberations of the European Parliament.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To what extent do the sovereignist parties represented in the European Parliament manage to find a middle ground between, on the one hand, different national interests and, on the other, supranational interests? To try to answer this question, we analyse the votes that took place in the European Parliament between 25 November 2021 and 14 March 2024. These include about 1,000 roll-call votes for which the full minutes are available, which allow us to trace the vote expressed by individual parliamentarians. The information is drawn from the HowTheyVote.eu database.<\/span><\/p>\n

Who are the Sovereignists?<\/b><\/h2>\n

Before analysing the behaviour of the sovereignist groups and comparing it with that of other groups, we sought a definition of sovereignism that was as objective as possible. This definition was proposed by ChatGPT version 4.0, which accesses information updated to April 2023:<\/span><\/p>\n

In the context of the European Parliament, a sovereignist is defined as a coalition of MEPs (Members of the European Parliament) who prioritise national sovereignty and support reducing the influence of the European Union\u2019s institutions on member states. These groups generally emphasise the importance of national decision-making authority and often seek to limit or reverse aspects of European integration.<\/span><\/p>\n

The next question we posed to the generative artificial intelligence programme was \u201cWhich coalitions currently present in the European Parliament can be defined as sovereignist?\u201d Its answer was as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): \u201cThis group is clearly sovereignist, focused on reforming the EU to ensure greater national control over various policies. Members like the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party and the Swedish Democrats emphasie reclaiming EU powers to national governments.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Identity and Democracy (ID): \u201cComposed of right-wing and far-right parties, the ID group is strongly sovereignist and Eurosceptic. They advocate a significant reduction of EU powers, emphasising issues such as immigration control and national border protection. Key parties in this group include the Italian Lega, the French Rassemblement National, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD).\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. The Left in the European Parliament – Nordic Green Left (GUE\/NGL): \u201cAlthough predominantly left-wing, this group also contains elements of sovereignism, particularly among parties that criticise the EU from the perspective of worker\u2019s rights protection and opposition to neoliberal policies. They support less centralised control and claim more power for local and national democratic institutions.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    ChatGPT also noted that\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    these groups differ in their specific ideologies and political programmes, but share a common skepticism about the current extent of European integration and a desire to strengthen legislative autonomy at the national level against what they perceive as excessive European bureaucracy.<\/span><\/p>\n

    How do sovereignists vote?<\/b><\/h3>\n

    ChatGPT\u2019s classification of sovereignist parties aligns with other classifications of so-called Eurosceptic parties (see, for example, the volume by Simon Hix, Richard Whitaker, and Galina Zapryanova for the <\/span>Journal of European Policy Research<\/span><\/i>, February 2024). Encouraged by this convergence, we proceed to analyse the voting behaviour in the European Parliament of European Conservatives and Reformists, Identity and Democracy, and GUE\/NGL, compared to other groups.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    For each vote, parliamentarians have four options: (a) vote in favour, (b) vote against, (c) abstain, and (d) not participate in the vote. We therefore calculate, for each group at each vote, the percentage of members who adhered to the majority option, and then the other options in descending order of support within the group itself.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The results of our analysis are in the following table.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Percentage of adherence by MEPs to the most voted option within their group, organised by different political groups<\/b><\/p>\n

    \"\"
    Note: The first four columns contain the percentage of adherence by members of each group to the available options (in favour, against, abstain, not voted), ordered from the most to the least voted (specific choices do not matter as much as their \u201cranking\u201d) within the group itself. These values provide an indication of how cohesive the group is (the greater the cohesion, the higher the adherence to the majority option). The fifth column reports a fragmentation index given by 1 minus the sum of the squared percentages of parliamentarians who chose the four different voting options. The higher the value of the index, the greater the fragmentation. Source: Our analysis based on data from the HowTheyVote.eu database. The information covers the electoral period from 25 November 2021 to 14 March 2024, for a total of 1,000 roll-call votes.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    Three facts stand out in these results.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. The percentage of parliamentarians voting in line with their group\u2019s majority (the percentage of parliamentarians presumably respecting the voting discipline) is lower for sovereignist groups compared to all others. As seen from the first column of Table 1, on average, less than three-quarters of the parliamentarians of sovereignist groups vote in line with the group majority, compared to 4 out of 5 or even 9 out of 10 (in the case of the Greens) in other groups. Parliamentarians of Identity and Democracy, in particular, do not differ much in their behaviour from those parliamentarians characterised only by their non-membership in any other group (\u201cmixed group\u201d).<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. Within the sovereignist groups, there is also greater disagreement in disagreement (i.e. when making different decisions from the majority in the group). For example, as seen from the second, third, and fourth columns of Table 1, in the case of Identity and Democracy, 63% of parliamentarians vote as the majority of the group. The remaining 37% make different choices rather than converging on a single choice (24% choose a second option, 10% another option, and 3% yet another option).<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. The fifth column of the table provides a synthetic index of fragmentation in voting for each group (see the box for details). The index varies from zero to one and is higher the greater the disagreement within the group. If all parliamentarians in the group vote the same way, the index is 0. If, instead, parliamentarians are evenly distributed among the four options (thus each collecting 25% of the group\u2019s parliamentarians), the index is 0.75. No group has a fragmentation index so high, but the sovereignist groups come closer to it.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The results do not change even when we exclude those who did not vote, that is, non-participation in votes, which in some cases is the majority choice of the group.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Box: The Fragmentation Index<\/b><\/h3>\n

      The fragmentation index is a complement to one of the Herfindahl\u2013Hirschman Indexes (HHI), typically used to assess the level of competition in a market. In our case, the HHI is calculated by the sum of the squares of the proportions of votes going to the four options (in favour, against, abstain, no vote) within each group. If the group votes uniformly, the fragmentation index is 1\u2212HHI = 1\u22121<\/span>2<\/span> = 0 because a single option receives 100% of the votes (the vote concentration is maximum). In the case where the group\u2019s parliamentarians are very divided, distributed evenly across the four options (thus each garnering a quarter of the votes), the fragmentation index is calculated as 1\u2212(1\/4)<\/span>2<\/span>\u2212(1\/4)<\/span>2<\/span>\u2212(1\/4)<\/span>2<\/span>\u2212(1\/4)<\/span>2<\/span> = 1\u22121\/4 = 3\/4 = 0.75.<\/span><\/p>\n

      What causes the strong fragmentation in the vote of sovereignist parliamentarians?<\/b><\/h3>\n

      While fragmentation is high among these groups in the European vote, there is little fragmentation when we focus on the behaviour of parliamentarians in the same group who were elected in the same country. Indeed, we conduct the same analysis for each vote but look at the distribution of the votes of parliamentarians elected in the same country and thus obtain a fragmentation index specific to each country (and parliamentary group). We then calculate the average of the fragmentation indices of each group and country (we do not include the table here for brevity\u2019s sake).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      When we do so, we obtain very similar results for sovereignist and non-sovereignist groups. In other words, sovereignists are no more fragmented than other groups when we look at the behaviour of parliamentarians in each individual country. The difference lies in what happens when MEPs of different nationalities come together in a group: while non-sovereignists seem capable of reconciling the interests of their country with those of the community and vote similarly in the European Parliament, sovereignists follow national logics and struggle to express common positions at the European level.<\/span><\/p>\n

      What happens when the vote concerns European integration?<\/b><\/h3>\n

      If national sovereignist parties are unable to agree amongst themselves in influencing the deliberations of the European Parliament, they can still succeed in blocking decisions that involve a greater degree of European integration. In other words, sovereignist parties might still prove effective in blocking deliberations that take power away from national governments.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      To evaluate this possibility, we look specifically at deliberations on measures containing terms such as \u201cintegration,\u201d \u201cunion,\u201d \u201ccommon,\u201d \u201ccommunity,\u201d and \u201ccoordination,\u201d which presumably refer to a strengthening of European integration. We also consider deliberations on the pandemic (containing the keyword \u201cCovid\u201d) that involve close forms of cooperation among the countries of the European Health Union.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      Even when we focus on this type of deliberation (either collectively or for each term listed above), we continue to find a higher degree of fragmentation among the sovereignist groups compared to other groups in the European Parliament.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \"\"
      Note: The first column contains the number of seats assigned to each political group, with the respective percentage of the total shown in parentheses. The second column displays the Banzhaf Power Index, an estimate of the number of times a political group can change the outcome of a vote relative to the total number of votes. The third column shows the percentage of votes in which each group was decisive in achieving a majority. In other words, we counted the number of cases where the sum of the votes from the other groups was not sufficient to reach a majority but was made possible by the votes of the group under consideration. The data used does not allow us to distinguish the type of voting; therefore, we applied the absolute majority criterion to establish the threshold necessary to determine the outcome of a vote. Source: Data from the European Parliament used for the number of seats and their respective percentages. The second column was obtained using a calculator developed by the University of Warwick (Voting Power Algorithms: ipgenf). The third column reports our analysis based on data from the HowTheyVote.eu database. The information covers the electoral period from 25 November 2021 to 14 March 2024, for a total of 1,000 roll-call votes.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

      A condemnation to irrelevance<\/b><\/h3>\n

      Sovereignist parties are currently a minority in the European Parliament, collectively garnering 23.2% of the votes, with none of them individually exceeding the 10% threshold. This, in itself, makes it more difficult for them to influence decisions in the Europarliament. Additionally, the fragmentation in the European vote further condemns the sovereignist parliamentarians to irrelevance in decisions made in Brussels and Strasbourg.<\/span><\/p>\n

      To assess the effects of their \u201cminority within a minority\u201d behaviour, we calculated the percentage of votes where the outcome was determined by the votes of individual groups and compared it to the probability of being decisive if the parliamentary group had voted cohesively. This probability is provided by the Banzhaf Power Index, which, based on the parliamentary weight of each group, estimates the number of times a party can change the outcome of a vote relative to the total number of votes (see the box for details).<\/span><\/p>\n

      These calculations are reflected in the second table. As seen, among the non-sovereignist groups, the European People’s Party, Social Democrats, and Renew Europe were decisive in the European Parliament vote in a higher percentage of cases than estimated based on the parliamentary weight of each group. For the Greens, the probability is slightly lower but still very close to the estimate. In contrast, the mixed group and the sovereignist parties were much less decisive in the voting outcomes than they could have been by voting cohesively. Specifically, the ID group and the ECR group were decisive in only 1.4% and 2% of the votes, respectively. Had they voted cohesively, they could have been decisive in almost 10% of the votes.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The 1.4% is the value of the Banzhaf Power Index when considering not the entire ID group but only the Italian Lega, which currently has 23 parliamentarians in Strasbourg. In other words, the coalition with other Identity and Democracy parties has not provided any advantage to Matteo Salvini\u2019s party in terms of relevance in the European Parliament vote. Moreover, the Lega, like other sovereignist parties, does not seem to have been decisive in coalitions formed on a national basis, for example, to block measures deemed detrimental to a country or group of countries. Fragmentation indices constructed on a national basis (considering elected representatives from a given country as a separate parliamentary group) suggest considerable heterogeneity in the behaviour of parliamentarians elected in the same country. For instance, the fragmentation index of European parliamentarians elected in Italy is 0.49, higher than that of almost all European parliamentary groups. In other words, contrary to what happens with sovereignist groups alone, motivations of a supranational nature seem to prevail in the European Parliament vote rather than national logics. This is consistent with the results of previous studies (e.g., works by Simon Hix, Abdul Noury, and Gerard Roland).<\/span><\/p>\n

      In summary, sovereignist parties are on the verge of complete irrelevance in the deliberations of the European Parliament. Will this be the case in the next legislature as well? It is true that electoral polls credit them with an increase in their presence in the European Parliament. However, they still seem destined to remain irrelevant unless they start voting cohesively, without national divisions. As observed, the internal fragmentation of these groups stems from the fact that sovereignist parliamentarians vote following more national logics than common European strategies. This, after all, is the hallmark of sovereignist parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

      In conclusion, if sovereignist parties do not cease to behave sovereignist in the European Parliament, the vote from European citizens for these parties risks being a futile vote, merely a testament to national voting, bringing to Europe people who will have virtually no weight in the deliberations in Brussels and Strasbourg. We will see if at least some sovereignist parties decide to break away from this “useless front” to have more influence, leaving only a part of the populist wing to the right of the European People’s Party in irrelevance.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Box: The Banzhaf Power Index<\/b><\/h3>\n

      The Banzhaf Power Index (named after its proposer, John Banzhaf) is an index that measures the probability of a voter or a political group being decisive with their vote when voting by majority, either simple or qualified. This ability is thus understood as \u201cpolitical power.\u201d The idea is that my vote counts when it contributes to making a decision. If a coalition remains a minority despite my vote, or if a majority forms anyway without my vote, then my vote is useless for the decision.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      The index is obtained by identifying all possible coalitions and counting those in which my vote serves to form a majority that would not have existed without my vote. Here is an example of how the index is calculated: Consider four parties: A, B, C, and D, respectively holding 4, 3, 2, and 1 seats. Suppose a simple majority is needed, thus 6 votes are required to decide. The possible majority-reaching coalitions are <\/span>AB<\/span> (7 votes), <\/span>AC<\/span> (6 votes), <\/span>A<\/span>BC (9 votes), <\/span>AB<\/span>D (8 votes), <\/span>AC<\/span>D (7 votes), <\/span>BCD<\/span> (6 votes), and ABCD (10 votes).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      The underlined letters denote which parties are crucial for reaching the majority. In the AB coalition, both are essential: if one of the two parties withdraws, there is no majority. The same happens in the AC coalition. In the ABD coalition, however, the party D is not crucial. If A and B vote in favour, there is a majority regardless of D\u2019s behaviour. And so on.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

      In total, there are 12 crucial votes (count the number of times there is an underlined party in the coalitions mentioned above) and the Banzhaf Power Index of each party is: A = 5\/12, B = 3\/12, C = 3\/12, D = 1\/12. Intuitively, the greater the number of seats, the more likely a party is crucial in a coalition. If the majority threshold rises, even smaller parties become powerful. In the extreme case of unanimity, all have the same power regardless of the number of seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Tito Boeri<\/strong> is Professor of Economics and the Director of the Department of Economics at Bocconi University. He is also the editorial director of eco.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

      Sebastiano Scalco<\/strong> is a research assistant at Bocconi University and the Rodolfo Debenedetti Foundation. He has had research experiences at the University of Trento, the Collegio Carlo Alberto in Turin, and the Bank of Italy.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      So far, populist nationalist parties have been unable to influence the deliberations of the European Parliament. 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