{"id":2239,"date":"2024-05-20T17:09:14","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T15:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=2239"},"modified":"2024-05-27T18:03:31","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T16:03:31","slug":"the-european-union-takes-a-historic-and-wrong-step-on-migrations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/20\/the-european-union-takes-a-historic-and-wrong-step-on-migrations\/","title":{"rendered":"The European Union takes a historic (and wrong) step on migrations"},"content":{"rendered":"

The new Pact on migration reveals all of Europe\u2019s contradictions, evidenced by defections and grumbling at the time of voting. Behind the emphatic words with which it was presented, there are new procedures that are discriminatory and hardly decisive. For Italy, the substantial legislative package is certainly not a victory<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

On April 10, 2024, the European Parliament in plenary session approved the new \u201cPact on Migration and Asylum.\u201d It was the last available opportunity before what many consider the most important and uncertain European elections ever. This is an election round in which the migration issue will play a decisive role, as it represents the moment that could allow populist right-wingers to unhinge the decades-long alliance between moderates and progressives.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ursula von der Leyen and Roberta Metsola, presiding over the Commission and the European Parliament respectively, both from the People\u2019s Party, emphatically welcomed the result, stressing its historic significance. Indeed, since 2016 attempts have been made in vain to reform a system unanimously judged to be a failure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Party positions<\/b><\/h3>\n

In the aftermath of the vote, however, comments were mostly critical, even from many who had spoken in favour of the proposal. One of the main negotiators, Slovak Socialist MP Matja\u017e Nemec, for example, spoke of a \u201ccompromise that we accept with a heavy lump in our throats.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the grand coalition between the People\u2019s Party, Socialists and Liberals held up, especially in the former two groups there was no shortage of defections and many voted reluctantly, only to prevent the populist nationalists (sovereignists), in the midst of the election campaign, from arguing that the Union is unable to respond to the \u201cmigratory threat.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Among the Italian political forces, deviations from groups\u2019 traditional views were particularly marked. The Democratic Party (PD) led by Elly Schlein voted against most proposals, prompting the President of the European People\u2019s Party, Manfred Weber, to provocatively ask whether the PD is \u201cstill a pro-European party.\u201d On the right, on the other hand, it was Giorgia Meloni\u2019s party that deviated from the line of the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, of which Meloni herself is President, providing crucial support for the approval of some of the most controversial measures.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the member-state level, the only clear dissents come from Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Hungary and, less predictably, Donald Tusk\u2019s Poland, which, despite a generally pro-European stance, openly disputes any even mild attempts to redistribute the burden of receiving asylum seekers.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this fragmented and confused landscape, however, the unity of organized civil society, which is unanimously against the agreement for both ideological and technical reasons, stands out.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Pact\u2019s sole true priority<\/b><\/h3>\n

To clear the fog of the political battle, a brief summary is useful. The pact is a voluminous legislative package, consisting of ten separate measures, totalling over a thousand pages. Its long and laborious gestation began in 2020, with a policy document presented by the European Commission. In that first roadmap, multiple areas were covered; preventing, controlling and countering unplanned migration flows were already key objectives. On the other hand, noone hid that a primary goal was to avoid a recurrence of crises like the one in 2015-2016, when over a million Syrian war refugees caught the Union by surprise. However, the original version of the Pact also included much more: just to cite a few headlines, it talked about \u201cdeveloping legal pathways to Europe,\u201d \u201cattracting skills and talent to the EU,\u201d and \u201csupporting integration for more inclusive societies.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In the final version, all of this has disappeared. As impressive as the package is, it all boils down to one true priority: regaining full control over who arrives and stays on EU territory. The problem, which has been well known for decades but emerged with all its dramatic consequences in 2015, concerns what experts call \u201cmixed flows\u201d. The term refers to those flows including both people fleeing violence and persecution, to whom receiving states must (or should) offer international protection, and \u201csimple\u201d migrants, who may be denied entry and who are theoretically destined for repatriation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obviously, flows of this kind are subject to major fluctuations, essentially due to the level of instability and violence in the countries of departure and transit (not to rescue activities, as is too often claimed, against all scientific evidence). Since 2020, the trend is on the rise, and in 2023, <\/span>as shown by Eurostat data <\/span>(Figure 1), the total volume of asylum applications in the EU increased by 20% from the previous year, exceeding one million for the first time since 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n

Number of asylum applications in the EU from 2008 to 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Eurostat.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It is important to note that the more than one million applications for protection are very unevenly distributed, with 72% concentrated in just four countries: 31.4% in Germany, 15.3% in Spain, 13.8% in France and 12.4% in Italy; at the other extreme, in Hungary, there were only 30 applications.<\/span><\/p>\n

But what is the outcome of this massive volume of applications? About half are granted (in 2022, 49%), with some form of initial protection. All others, except in special cases of temporarily authorized stay or regularization, should be repatriated. In fact, every year, member states issue a very large number of orders to leave the European territory – about 430,000 in 2023; again, the distribution is far from homogeneous, with almost a third of expulsions ordered by France, followed by Germany, Greece and Italy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem is that only a quarter of the banned migrants are then actually repatriated. The gap is not due to humanitarian afterthoughts, but to economic, logistical and, above all, diplomatic obstacles: in particular, the lack of readmission agreements with countries of origin or, when the agreements are in place, the failure to enforce them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Where the new border procedures lead<\/b><\/h3>\n

The central goal of the Pact is precisely to bridge the gap between the official statements and the reality of expulsions.<\/span><\/p>\n

The key to doing so is identified in a reform of procedures for examining asylum applications. The new rules aim to separate the applications most likely to be granted from the others as quickly as possible. For the latter, a special channel has been opened, designed to prevent applicants with few chances (those from countries for which the acceptance rate is less than 20%) from taking advantage of bureaucratic meanderings to remain irregularly in Europe. In particular, the aim is to stop them at all costs from swelling the ranks of \u201csecondary movements\u201d from the countries of arrival – such as Italy, Spain or Greece – to northern Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n

The magic word then becomes \u201caccelerated border procedure\u201d: while presented as a residual scenario, it is in fact outlined as the future \u201cnormal route\u201d for asylum seekers arriving in the EU through irregular channels, particularly from the Central Mediterranean and Balkan routes.<\/span><\/p>\n

The main features of the new procedure for applicants with little chance of remaining are threefold: extreme shortening of the time frame (12 weeks, which can be extended to 16); possibility of forced detention of the applicant (in certain cases, even if he or she is a minor); and the concentration of detention places near the border.<\/span><\/p>\n

Those who advocate for this approach present it as pragmatically oriented towards effectiveness and that it is even fair, in that it aims to prevent – according to a popular expression in both Brussels and Rome \u2013 \u201ctraffickers from deciding who enters Europe.\u201d In reality, it is an approach that goes in the opposite direction, both in terms of fairness and effectiveness.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is unfair, indeed, to assume that asylum seekers arriving from a country with a low acceptance rate compared to other nations are less deserving and subject them, for that reason, to a more cursory evaluation and more distressing treatment. Fundamental rights should not be given out based on probability assessments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Above all, however, it is not a solution-oriented proposal. Shortening the procedural timeframe makes little sense unless the downstream bottlenecks, those that mean that only a quarter of ordered expulsions to succeed, are addressed. The risk is that rejected asylum seekers will continue to accumulate in the most exposed border countries, swelling the ranks of candidates for exploitation and secondary mobility.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAn Italian victory?\u201d<\/b><\/h3>\n

This brings us to the consequences of the new Pact for Italy. Here again, taking a step back helps a better understanding. In 2020, the Commission had put at the heart of the original version of the Pact the \u201cneed for an approach that goes beyond the limits of the current Dublin regulation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The request to renegotiate the 2013 regulation, known as Dublin III, and in particular its cornerstone principle – which places the responsibility for handling asylum claims of irregularly arrived migrants on the first entry state – had been a mantra of Italian diplomacy in Brussels for years. The request had been supported over the years by governments of all political colours, with a bipartisan continuity matched only by the absence of concrete results.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Dublin principle clearly shifts the economic and political responsibility for managing the flows of migrants seeking protection to the countries that are most exposed from time to time, namely those on the EU\u2019s southern and eastern borders. However, the infamous \u201cDublin principle\u201d has for decades constituted an actual <\/span>Grundnorm<\/span><\/i> – a fundamental principle – of the European migration regime, which is extremely difficult to undermine because it embodies the fundamental interests of a solid majority of member states.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to statements such as that of President von der Leyen, who immediately after the vote on the Pact declared that \u201cItaly will no longer be alone,\u201d or the jubilant words of Giorgia Meloni herself, who already with regard to the first political agreements at the end of 2023 spoke of an \u201cItalian victory,\u201d it would seem that the decade-long impasse has finally been overcome.<\/span><\/p>\n

In reality, this is more rhetorical than real. It is true that the new regulation on asylum and migration management imposes a form of solidarity among member states in accepting a share of asylum seekers who have arrived through irregular channels. But solidarity concerns indeed only a share, for the moment a minority share, of the total arrivals (30,000 per year).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, solidarity, though mandatory, is \u201cflexible.\u201d What is meant by this incomprehensible formula, which sounds very much like an oxymoron? Simply that, if a state does not want to take in migrants, it can convert the obligation into an economic contribution (to the tune of up to 600 million a year, for the 27 countries as a whole) or an organizational one, in such fields as reception policies, repatriation policies or cooperation with third countries of origin of the flows.<\/span><\/p>\n

Leaving aside any judgment on the moral foundations of such a policy, which puts a price on the refusal to accept migrants, it must be said that, at least in the short and medium term, such a definition of solidarity will not be able to change the situation much. Concentrations of rejected asylum seekers in border countries will not be significantly reduced, nor will the trend of secondary movements towards less exposed countries, where there are well-integrated communities of compatriots, receptive labour markets and comparatively more generous welfare.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is difficult to argue that this corresponds in any way to the Italian national interest. The danger is that, in order to compensate for the lack of actual solidarity in the form of physical redistribution of asylum seekers, we are reduced to accepting the role of guardian of the containment belt. An uncomfortable, barely lucrative and potentially dirty role that brings no tangible gains either in terms of international prestige or public safety.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Italian government seems aware of this risk; how else would one explain the stubbornness with which it pursues such a costly and rambling policy as moving detention to Albania? And the praise of President von der Leyen, who called the agreement between Rome and Tirana a promising example of \u201cout of the box thinking\u201d, is not enough to reassure us.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ferruccio Pastore<\/strong> is the director of FIERI, a migration research institute based in Turin. He was Deputy Director of the Center for International Policy Studies (CeSPI, Rome). His latest book is <\/span>Migramorphosis<\/span> (Einaudi, 2023).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The new Pact on migration reveals all of Europe\u2019s contradictions, evidenced by defections and grumbling at the time of voting. 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