{"id":2245,"date":"2024-05-20T17:24:33","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T15:24:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=2245"},"modified":"2024-05-27T18:03:55","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T16:03:55","slug":"will-the-next-global-crisis-come-from-the-sea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/20\/will-the-next-global-crisis-come-from-the-sea\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the next global crisis come from the sea?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Geopolitical tensions can create barriers to international trade: consider the consequences of a potential blockade of the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, or Strait of Malacca. Yet, it is climate change that raises the highest level of concern for global trade. With the Panama Canal at a standstill, the planet\u2019s economic growth is at risk.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

We often think of the global market as a single large bazaar where goods from all over the world flow easily. In reality, there are many \u201cbazaars\u201d of all sizes, connected by a circular flow of goods. The most important connections are maritime, which follow just a few routes. For this reason, attacks on ships transiting off the coast of Yemen raise concerns that may seem exaggerated given that only a few raids have had significant effects.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Strategic Passage<\/b><\/h3>\n

Since clashes between Israel and Hamas began in October 2023, the Houthis, a group of Yemeni rebels supported by Iran, have announced their support for the Palestinian movement, intensifying drone and rocket attacks on foreign-owned ships carrying goods through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This strait, about 30 kilometers wide, connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, lying between Eritrea and Djibouti on the African side and Yemen on the Asian side. Ships usually take this route to cross the Suez Canal, as it is the shortest route to transport their goods between Asia and Europe. For this reason, Suez is considered one of the nerve centers of international trade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is estimated that about 12% of global trade and 30% of global container traffic pass through it, transporting goods worth about one trillion euros per year. On average, fifty ships navigate it daily, with cargoes valued between 3 and 9 billion euros and a weight of about one billion tonnes, a figure comparable to four times the traffic that transits through the Panama Canal, between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. It is calculated that about 15% of goods imported into Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa from Asia and the Gulf countries comes by sea, including 21.5% of refined petroleum and over 13% of crude oil. All this makes Suez one of the most important and busiest commercial arteries in the world, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait a crucial strategic passage for global trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alternative Maritime Routes between Asia and Europe<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: NG Terminal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Repeated Houthi attacks have redirected maritime traffic to a much longer alternative route that circumnavigates the African continent via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. For example, the navigation distance between Singapore and Rotterdam through the Suez Canal is about 8,440 nautical miles (approximately 14,230 kilometers), whereas the route rounding the Cape of Good Hope covers about 11,770 nautical miles (approximately 18,860 kilometers). For container ships, this greater mileage requires an additional eight to twelve days of travel. For bulk carriers, which transport non-containerized and non-liquid cargo and typically maintain a lower average speed, travel times are extended by eleven to eighteen days.<\/span><\/p>\n

To understand the significance of this longer distance, which implies a longer duration of the journey and thus higher transportation costs, one can resort to simple calculations based on the observation that trade between two countries is promoted by the size of their internal markets and hindered by their mutual distance. Specifically, it is estimated that a 1% increase in distance is typically associated with a 0.85% decrease in exports. A ship forced to circumnavigate Africa to connect Singapore and Rotterdam finds itself on a route that is about 40% longer than through the Suez. If a 1% increase in distance leads to a drop in exports of about 0.85%, empirical evidence suggests that we can expect bilateral trade between Singapore and Rotterdam to decrease by about one-third (40\u00d70.85%=34%). While approximate, this calculation is not far from the maximum reduction recorded at the beginning of 2024 in maritime traffic at the six major Italian ports.<\/span><\/p>\n

What impact could problematic access to the Suez have on the global economy? It is not easy to quantify, but an initial answer has been provided by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), a governmental organization that promotes mutual trade and investment between Japan and the rest of the world. Based on projections obtained from their global economic model, JETRO analysts have assessed that a potential total closure of access to the Suez for one year could have significant consequences for the entire planet. Global GDP would decrease by 0.1%, which might seem negligible until one considers that it is the result of offsetting losses in some countries with gains in others.<\/span><\/p>\n

The largest reductions would be concentrated in countries that most utilize the canal for their trade. The most affected geographical areas would be East Africa (-2.7%), the Mediterranean (-2%), Southeast Asia (-0.9%), and South Asia (-0.7%). The most affected sectors would be agriculture (-1.4%), the extractive sector (-1.2%), and manufacturing (-0.7%). In absolute terms, the most damaged countries would be China (-73 billion dollars), followed by India (-26.2) and Israel (-20.4). The geographical area to suffer the most would be the EU (-72.9), particularly West Europe (-68.1), followed by East Asia (-55.3), South Asia (-33.4), and Southeast Asia (-28). The manufacturing sector would be the most affected (-87.4 billion dollars), followed by the mining sector (-38.3), agriculture (-36.8), and services (-11.4).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the reorganization of global routes would favor other areas, such as Oceania (+1.1%), southern Africa (+1%), and South America (+0.9%), and other sectors, such as agribusiness (+3.7%) and the electrical and electronic products industry (+0.3%). Within large countries such as China, some regions would see their GDP decrease, while others would see it increase.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Suez closes for a year: the impact on GDP by geographical area and sector<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Japan External Trade Organization (Jetro)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

A Drama for Less Competitive Businesses<\/b><\/h3>\n

While public debate often focuses on trade at the country or sector level, an interesting and often overlooked aspect concerns the potential impact of prolonged diversions of maritime traffic on individual exporting companies. The decline in bilateral trade between Europe and Asia is indeed driven by two concurrent effects. On the one hand, the increase in the distance to be covered (and thus the related transportation costs) leads to a reduction in average exports per exporting company. On the other, it also causes a reduction in the number of companies that export.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reason for the second effect lies in the fact that in every sector there are more or less competitive companies. The more competitive companies are larger and continue to export because they can absorb the higher transportation costs, thanks to more substantial profit margins. They may export less, but they will remain active in global markets. Without the same wide margins, some less competitive and smaller businesses will be forced to abandon their international presence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Empirical evidence shows that the reduction in the number of active companies is a significant factor, explaining about three-quarters of the negative impact of greater distance on trade flows. In our example, of the anticipated 34% drop in trade between Rotterdam and Singapore, 25.5% would depend on the reduction in the number of exporting companies and only 9.5% from the reduction of the average exports of companies that continue to export.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the Houthi attacks continue, they will be a problem for international trade for all European companies, but especially for those less competitive and smaller ones, which risk disappearing from the most dynamic Asian markets.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the Suez is not the only bottleneck for global trade and not even the most vulnerable. There are three others, each with its own problems.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two Bottlenecks in International Trade<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Strait of Hormuz represents the passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, leading to the Indian Ocean. About 170 kilometers long, it is the most critical bottleneck for oil and gas. Approximately 25% of the oil traded by sea and about 30% of the world\u2019s liquefied natural gas pass through here. The sword of Damocles of Middle Eastern geopolitics hangs over this passage, which connects some of the heavyweights of the oil market, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq. With an effective width useful for the largest oil tankers \u2013 about 3 kilometers in both directions \u2013 it could easily be controlled during a conflict and thus represents a strategic target of primary importance. During the Iran-Iraq War of 1980\u20131988, the two contenders tried to interrupt each other\u2019s oil exports that crossed the Strait. More recently, Tehran has threatened to mine it as retaliation against Western sanctions.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the Strait of Hormuz is a critical point for the trade of oil and gas, the Strait of Malacca is even more important for most trade. The strait, 900 kilometers long, is the main passage linking Asia with the Middle East and Europe, involving about 40% of global trade. At its narrowest point, off Singapore, the passage is only 2.7 kilometers wide, creating a natural bottleneck with risks of collisions, groundings, or oil spills. Over the years, it has become strategically more and more important for Beijing, as almost 80% of Chinese crude oil imports from the Middle East and Africa pass through it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Panama Canal: The Threat of Drought<\/b><\/h3>\n

Then there is the Panama Canal. Spanning the 80 kilometers of infrastructure that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, about 5% of global trade passes through it. Historically, the canal\u2019s dimensions did not allow the largest ships to transit through. However, in 2016, Panama initiated an expansion that now theoretically makes it navigable by 98% of vessels, saving crews the long and dangerous route around Cape Horn at the southern tip of South America.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although not subject to the same geopolitical risks as the other bottlenecks, the Panama Canal faces another major problem, a byproduct of climate change: the lack of water. The canal infrastructure operates as a system of locks, a bit like the canals of Milan. At the heart of the system is Gatun Lake. For each ship that passes through the locks, about 50 million liters of water are needed, which should be guaranteed by Gatun Lake. This means that the proper functioning of the canal depends on rainfall, which in recent years, has begun to be scarce due to unprecedented periods of drought. The water levels in the huge reservoir have often dropped below the safety limit, consequently reducing the number and tonnage of ships that can cross the canal. The year 2023 was the second driest year in the history of the canal, and it was necessary to decrease the number of ships in transit in order to preserve the lake\u2019s water level during the summer. According to the Canal Authority, the main cause is climate change, which puts pressure on rivers and lakes in many countries around the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

While other bottlenecks suffer from geopolitical tensions, Panama\u2019s woes remind us that climate change, by hindering the circular flow of goods, could ultimately be the most significant cause of a chronic crisis in global trade and a slowdown in the economic growth of the planet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gianmarco Ottaviano<\/strong> is a full professor of political economy at Bocconi University and holds the Achille and Giulia Boroli Chair in European Studies. He is also the co-director of the Research Unit on Globalization and Industrial Dynamics at the Baffi-CAREFIN Research Center.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Geopolitical tensions can create barriers to international trade: consider the consequences of a potential blockade of the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, or Strait of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6522,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[29],"class_list":["post-2245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill the next global crisis come from the sea? - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/20\/will-the-next-global-crisis-come-from-the-sea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the next global crisis come from the sea? 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