{"id":2249,"date":"2024-05-20T17:28:45","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T15:28:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=2249"},"modified":"2024-05-27T18:04:41","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T16:04:41","slug":"border-control-is-in-the-hands-of-dictators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/05\/20\/border-control-is-in-the-hands-of-dictators\/","title":{"rendered":"Border control is in the hands of dictators"},"content":{"rendered":"

In recent years, the European Union has often used the policy of bilateral agreements with transit countries to reduce irregular migration. This approach, however, does not solve the issue: it simply moves the migration from one route to another and from one state to another, while also trampling on the rights of refugees.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

In March 2024, Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission and <\/span>spitzenkandidat <\/span><\/i>(lead candidate) of the European People\u2019s Party in the upcoming elections, signed an agreement with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi which promised 7.4 billion euros in aid over four years from the European Union, in exchange for reforms and a commitment to tackle irregular migration. Meloni and von der Leyen had already signed a similar agreement in the summer of 2023 with Tunisian President Kais Saied.<\/span><\/p>\n

An agreement for every route<\/b><\/h3>\n

Meloni and von der Leyen\u2019s negotiations are consistent with the policies for managing irregular migration implemented in recent years. European countries have entered into various forms of cooperation with transit countries: among others, we can mention the bilateral agreements between the European Union and Turkey and Niger, between Italy and Libya, between Italy and Tunisia, and between Spain and Morocco. These agreements aim to reduce irregular migration. To do this, European states ask transit countries to increase border controls or discourage irregular migration; in return, they offer logistical and financial support.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These policies certainly affect migration flows, but several studies suggest that they merely shift migration to other routes, at least in part. And because they make it more difficult to cross the border, they impose significant humanitarian costs, both because the routes become less safe and because potential refugees are thereby denied access.<\/span><\/p>\n

The popularity of agreements with transit countries within European institutions has grown in parallel with the increase in irregular migration in recent years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The fall of Gaddafi\u2019s regime in Libya in 2011 in fact, opened up the central Mediterranean route to Italy, substantially reducing the costs of irregular migration from African and Middle Eastern countries while significantly increasing flows, as shown in a study by economists Guido Friebel, Miriam Manchin, Mariapia Mendola and Giovanni Prarolo (\u201cHuman Smuggling and Intentions to Migrate: Global Evidence from a Supply Shock Along Africa-to-Europe Migration Routes\u201d). The civil war in Syria, which began in the same year, instead inaugurated the Eastern Mediterranean migration route, which connects Turkey, Greece and the Balkans: this route peaked in 2015, with 850,000 entries according to the UNHCR, the Refugee Agency.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This brings us to March 2016, when Erdogan\u2019s Turkey pledged to stop migrant departures to Europe in exchange for 6 billion euros in financial support from the European Union. Migrant arrivals via the Balkan route were practically zeroed out, as can be clearly seen from the evolution of arrivals to Greece (in green) shown in Figure 1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A year later, the Italian government led by Paolo Gentiloni used a similar approach to block departures from Libya. The Interior Minister, Marco Minniti, found himself negotiating with institutions fragmented by civil war, and in some cases, as repeatedly mentioned by Avvenire\u2019s investigations, the differences between these institutions and migrant smugglers were not entirely clear.<\/span><\/p>\n

Migrant arrivals in Italy and Spain<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The figure shows the evolution of migrant arrivals in Italy, via the Central Mediterranean route; in Spain, via the Western Mediterranean and Northwest African routes (including arrivals to the Canary Islands); and in Greece, by sea via the Eastern Mediterranean route or by land. Source: UNHCR data.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Minniti\u2019s policies coincided with a marked reduction in migrant landings in Italy: minus 68% in 2018, as Francesco Daveri pointed out in his 2019 article on lavoce.info (\u201cThe Salvini effect on landings counts for half of the Minniti effect\u201d), i.e., about 108,000 fewer migrants in one year. The reduction in arrivals is particularly marked in the summer, a period that normally records high numbers (Figure 1).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Migration routes change over time<\/b><\/h3>\n

After the agreement with Libya, arrivals by sea to Italy remained very low for several years, including the first phase of the Covid-19 epidemic. They started to increase again between 2021 and 2023, when Tunisia began to establish itself as an important new transit country. This led to the agreement with Tunis in 2023. In late January 2024, European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson stated that the agreement led to a decrease in arrivals of between 80% and 90%. To assess the effects of the Tunis agreement, however, it is advisable to wait at least until the summer, because favourable weather conditions are the most important factor determining migrant departures, especially when large search and rescue operations are underway, as noted in a study by Claudio Deiana, Vikram Maheshri and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, an initial analysis of the agreement with Tunisia reveals one of the central weaknesses shared by all these policies: migration routes change over time and adapt to border control. Therefore, continuing with this approach may require continuous negotiations to block any possible gap. If they are concluded between individual EU countries and transit countries, the agreements may simply shift the problem to other states, raising yet again the issue of lack of solidarity within the EU, as well as towards migrants in transit.<\/span><\/p>\n

The closure of the central Mediterranean route, for example, appears to have diverted some of the irregular migration to the western Mediterranean route, which connects Algeria, Morocco and Spain. According to some estimates, arrivals in Spain of migrants with nationalities that, prior to the signing of Minniti\u2019s agreement with Libya, were headed to Italy, have increased by 41%. Figure 1 also seems to confirm these data. Although they have grown, entries into Europe from Spain have never reached the peaks recorded in Italy: the maximum annual number was 58,000 people in 2018, compared to 181,000 recorded in Italy in 2016, according to the <\/span>UNHCR<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Similar phenomena are also found on other migration routes. After the agreement signed between the EU and Ankara in 2016, a substantial reduction in migrant arrivals via the Eastern Mediterranean route was accompanied by an increase in those via the Central Mediterranean route, particularly of migrants of Asian origin, who previously used the passage through Turkey. Also in this case, the substitution between one route and the other is not complete. Estimates show that between 27% and 66% of flows have supposedly shifted from Turkey to Libya. In any case, analysis on route diversion due to the agreements with Turkey and Libya suggest that these agreements generate inefficiencies, as a reduction in arrivals in one country is accompanied by an increase in alternative countries or routes.<\/span><\/p>\n

The political and economic costs<\/b><\/h3>\n

The impact these policies have on migration flows must then be compared to their economic and political costs. The financial impact is difficult to assess for several reasons. First, while providing a budget explicitly related to migration control, bilateral agreements include forms of funding dedicated to other aspects of the economies involved and take the form of development funds, subject to other conditions. For example, 5 of the 7.4 billion euros that Egypt will receive from Europe are subsidized loans for industrial, agricultural and water security investments. The remaining 2.4 billion will be for investments, including 600 million in grants and 200 dedicated to controlling irregular migration. The agreement with Tunisia has a similar structure, although the budget is smaller. In other cases, the costs for the agreements are less easy to quantify: for example, the fact that the agreement with Libya cost about half a billion euros over three years is known thanks to a 2019 Euronews analysis. In addition, agreements with transit countries most likely reduced reception costs for European countries (Italy\u2019s costs have been below forecast after 2018 according to OpenPolis), but the overall budget is very difficult to calculate given that migrants make a positive contribution to state finances.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In any case, these kinds of agreements seem mostly related to the desire to reduce the political costs of irregular migration for incumbent governments by offloading the negative consequences to migrants in transit.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are mainly two ways in which agreements with transit countries have contributed to making the position of migrants worse. First, they make border crossings more difficult even for people who could obtain some form of protection in Europe. According to economists and social scientists from SciencesPo in Paris, one in two migrants who entered Europe irregularly between 2009 and 2020 is likely to be a refugee, based on their nationality, and would therefore be entitled to asylum. In 2015, the year of the largest influx of Syrians into Turkey, three out of every four migrants were probably so.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, the agreements help increase the risk of trafficking in transit countries. A report by Border Forensics shows that after the agreement with Niger, traffickers and migrants began taking less safe routes across the Sahara Desert. A recent independent report commissioned by the UN in Libya contains evidence of torture and abuse of migrants in detention centres and suggests that state and coast guard authorities themselves are involved. Shipwrecks in areas overseen by Libyan authorities have also increased. In Tunisia, the non-governmental organization Human Rights Watch has reported systematic abuses against migrants from sub-Saharan Africa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last but not least, these agreements carry the risk of making European states less able to pursue their strategic interests, for example in North Africa, as noted by the European Council on Foreign Relations. And they make them blackmailable by third countries, which can open and close borders at will. Evidence of this was already seen in 2020, when during a dispute over the failure to apply parts of the pact with Europe, Turkey temporarily opened its borders wide, letting thousands of migrants through and threatening Europe with the arrival of millions of refugees.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In conclusion, in recent years European states have managed the increase in irregular migration by increasingly entrusting border control to transit countries. While these policies have reduced arrivals on some routes, they have increased migration on others. This has created a situation of uncertainty that fuels doubts about their future effectiveness. It is also an approach that accepts significant humanitarian costs, putting migrants at risk and denying access to potential refugees.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Addressing irregular migration in a forward-looking manner cannot be limited to closing every possible gateway, but requires opening legal and safe routes to migration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Giacomo Battiston<\/strong> is an economist and researcher at ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin) where he focuses on migration and labour economics. He has studied the management of European border control and its effect on migrants in transit.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In recent years, the European Union has often used the policy of bilateral agreements with transit countries to reduce irregular migration. 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