{"id":3105,"date":"2024-06-26T17:40:52","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T15:40:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=3105"},"modified":"2024-06-26T17:40:52","modified_gmt":"2024-06-26T15:40:52","slug":"the-childrens-bond-that-does-not-reckon-with-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/06\/26\/the-childrens-bond-that-does-not-reckon-with-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"The children\u2019s bond that does not reckon with inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Saving for the future of their children is a common desire among parents. With the Children\u2019s Bond (Buono minori), Poste Italiane offers the tool to do just that. You can even calculate how much the investment will yield. Too bad the indicated amount does not take into account a crucial detail: inflation. A missed opportunity for serious financial education.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Saving for young children is one of the most heartfelt goals for parents. In past centuries, families did it to support their desire to marry off their daughters: prepare a dowry to take to the future husband and increase the bride\u2019s bargaining power. They do it in today\u2019s world in America in anticipation of steep tuition fees. Italian families continue to save, partly for the same reason American families do, but also to help their children start their careers and to better enable them to face the first uncertainties that life holds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A bond to hold for a long time<\/b><\/h3>\n

Having saving instruments is extremely useful, both to make the most of the money set aside and to avoid the temptation to spend it prematurely. The piggy bank solved the latter problem but not the former: the return on coins was nil, and their value was exposed to the erosion of purchasing power.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The bond dedicated to children offered by Poste Italiane is therefore welcome. It is a bond that can be purchased by a parent, relative or friend and gifted to a minor, a young person under the age of 18, who will benefit from it upon reaching the age of majority. It is a state-guaranteed security taxed at 12.5%, the same as government bonds (BOT, Btp and other bonds).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The interesting aspect is that the average annual yield is linked to the holding period: the longer it is held, the greater the yield. And not by a little. If held for just two years – that is, you buy it for a 16-year-old – the gross annual yield is 2.5%, less than a two-year Btp (currently 2.9%). But if bought at the child\u2019s birth and held for 17-18 years, Poste Italiane promises a nominal yield, i.e. without taking inflation into account, of 6% per year (see figure). If the grandparents give the newborn child a 1,000-euro bond, on their 18th birthday, they will have 2,854 euro at their disposal – 2.8 times the grandparents\u2019 gift.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is an interesting, and in many ways, advantageous programme. For example, the yield of the <\/span>Buono minori<\/span><\/i> exceeds that of a Btp maturing in 18 years (around 3.8% annually, if held to maturity). Obviously, the two securities are not directly comparable: the Btp can be traded and sold on the market, potentially earning a profit, while the Children\u2019s Bond does not have a secondary market, and that attractive yield can only be obtained if the bond is held until the end. If you hold it for only 15 years, it drops to 3.5 %. But the purpose of the final yield premium is precisely to incentivise holding the bond until maturity and never liquidating the instrument, ensuring stable financing for the Treasury.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The yield calculation is missing a key factor<\/b><\/h3>\n

There is an important aspect in the way the Children\u2019s Bond is presented to families considering subscribing to it: the yield calculation. Poste Italiane\u2019s website provides a simulator of the bond\u2019s value: with two simple pieces of information – the minor\u2019s date of birth and the investment amount – it returns how many euros will be obtained when the child turns eighteen. For example, if a thousand euros is gifted to a child born today, at the age of eighteen, Poste Italiane will refund 2,598 euros, already net of tax. If the child is five years old at the time of the gift, at eighteenth, they will receive 1,501euros. These are nominal amounts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But that information is not enough to assess the suitability of the investment. It is unlikely that in 18 years the newborn child will be able to use their 2,598 euros to buy what they could today, which is about 2.6 times what they could buy if the 1,000-euros gift was spent immediately. In 18 years, the purchasing power of 2,598 euros will be heavily influenced (and reduced) by the inflation that will occur in the meantime. It would be helpful if Poste Italiane provided investors with an estimate of the purchasing power of the sum that will be refunded once the child turns eighteen, to help them make a better decision.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Obviously, nobody knows what inflation will be in the next 18 years, and any assumptions have their own degree of arbitrariness. But even ignoring the problem and writing on the website \u201cFind out the value of the Bond by entering the amount and date of birth of the child\u201d is misleading. What you find out is the value – in the sense of goods you could buy – that the bond would have if there was no inflation in the next 18 years. Offering at least an alternative scenario would be helpful. An obvious one is to assume 2% inflation – the European Central Bank\u2019s target – for the next 18 years. Under this assumption, the value of the <\/span>Buono minori<\/span><\/i> at the age of majority would be 43% lower, about 1,817 euros, but this is still, a respectable amount.<\/span><\/p>\n

A missed opportunity for financial education<\/b><\/h3>\n

A question remains: why is this information not offered to the parent or relative who subscribes to the Children\u2019s Bond? It cannot be ignorance because those who issue bonds are well aware of the difference between nominal and real yields.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A malicious assumption is that they want to \u201cinflate\u201d the yield to make the bond more attractive in the eyes of the investor, perhaps by playing on the fact that many people do not know that if the nominal interest rate is 3% and inflation is also 3%, the real interest rate is zero, and in the end, only the invested capital is recovered.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Providing that information would be a serious way of giving a good lesson in financial education. It would also be a credible way to propose it, precisely because telling the investor that the real yield of the investment is not 6% but 4%, if inflation is 2%, goes against the issuer\u2019s overriding interest, which is to place the bond. All banks or intermediaries today offer a financial education course on their website, with the intention to signal that the saver\u2019s interest is paramount. But it is a signal that costs nothing to send, and the possibility that it is just posturing remains.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

How much does the investment in the Children\u2019s Bond yield<\/b>?<\/span><\/h3>\n
\"\"
Note: gross nominal annual yield for the length of the holding period of the bond.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bio<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Luigi Guiso<\/strong> is professor of finance at the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance in Rome. He previously directed the research programme in finance at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Saving for the future of their children is a common desire among parents. 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