{"id":4064,"date":"2024-09-02T12:04:25","date_gmt":"2024-09-02T10:04:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=4064"},"modified":"2024-09-02T12:04:25","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T10:04:25","slug":"the-state-of-tax-evasion-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/09\/02\/the-state-of-tax-evasion-in-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"The State of Tax Evasion in Italy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ernesto Maria Ruffini has been the Director of the Revenue Agency since January 2020, a position he previously held from July 2017 to September 2018. Since 2020, he has also been the Director of the Revenue Collection Agency.<\/span><\/p>\n

The oldest vice of Italians can be summed up with a number: 836 billion euros. That\u2019s the burden of tax and contribution evasion, according to the Ministry of Economy\u2019s report based on 2021 data. To put it in perspective, this amount could fund three budget laws. On the positive side, evasion has been decreasing for a decade, mainly thanks to the digitisation of the tax system and the extensive use of data. However, it remains an endemic problem that requires increasingly innovative tools to be eradicated. Furthermore, the recovery of credits is slowed by a “fiscal warehouse” full of accumulated tax notices from 2000 onwards, totalling 1200 billion euros.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Ernesto Ruffini, today about one in five taxpayers sends their tax return through the pre-filled form provided by the Revenue Agency. Do you think that in the future this choice could become predominant among taxpayers?<\/b><\/p>\n

Every year we try to add an item to make the pre-filled form more complete and easier to use. Last year, we introduced the possibility of delegating a family member or a trusted person, and this year a new simplified compilation mode. Essentially, the taxpayer is asked to verify the pre-filled expenses and incomes and, if necessary, modify them. The system then inserts the information into the declaration form: most taxpayers are choosing this option. Generally, pre-filled forms sent independently are increasing and are already a third more than the same period last year. But the pre-filled form is also used by tax assistance centers (CAF) and professionals who can immediately access information on deductible expenses, which they can verify and possibly integrate. The hope is that more and more taxpayers can do it themselves, but this will largely depend on the simplification of tax regulations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Starting this year, self-employed professionals can also access the pre-filled form through the web service for the first time. Do you expect a broad uptake of this possibility?<\/b><\/p>\n

It is an initial experiment, but what I said earlier still applies: the pre-filled form can also serve as a starting point where the tax administration provides taxpayers and their assistants with the information in its possession. We are operating in a field where every rule corresponds to at least one exception: we can only proceed step by step.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s move to a painful subject: building bonuses. Verified fraud amounts to just under 15 billion euros. Do you expect that most of the fraud has now been blocked and recovered?<\/b><\/p>\n

Most of the fictitious credits have been seized by the judicial authority, also based on reports from the Agency or the Guardia di Finanza, thus preventing the use of remaining installments. Moreover, thanks to the prevention systems introduced in 2021, which involve a series of preliminary checks by cross-referencing databases, we managed to block credits worth about 6 billion euros before they were used, discarding them directly at the time of transfer. Considering that certain mechanisms are no longer replicable, we can say that most of the fraud is certainly behind us. However, we remain vigilant, even though fictitious credits are now difficult to market because they are promptly identified as soon as someone tries to use them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Apart from fraud, where do we stand in the fight against tax evasion? The latest data published in the Report on the Non-Observed Economy and Tax and Contribution Evasion show that the tax gap for all tax revenues \u2013 excluding excise duties and IMU \u2013 decreased from 895 billion euros in 2016 to 665 billion in 2021. What can this reduction be attributed to?<\/b><\/p>\n

Evasion has been decreasing for a decade due to a series of concomitant factors connected by a common thread: the digitisation of the tax system. For example, it is now possible to detect discrepancies between revenues obtained through POS and electronic receipts or invoices because this information converges within our databases and forms part of single systems that communicate with each other. When everything is tracked, any anomalies are detected much more quickly, making evasion more difficult. This has led, on one hand, to greater tax compliance, which is also due to the support provided by the Agency to taxpayers; and on the other hand, to an increased recovery capacity thanks to new technologies and better processing of various information flows that converge in our systems. Often, to regularise taxpayers, it is enough to send a simple notice of the detected discrepancy because it may be they are errors made in good faith. This allows the Agency to focus on more complex cases.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tax gap: <\/b>An estimate of the gap between the taxes and contributions actually paid and those that taxpayers should have paid under a regime of perfect compliance with the tax and contribution obligations provided by current legislation.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The fight against evasion inevitably intersects with respect for privacy. With the current regulations, does the Revenue Agency have all the necessary data to effectively combat the phenomenon? Do you think there is a balance between data access and the right to privacy for taxpayers?<\/b><\/p>\n

Every technological innovation is always evaluated in relation to the legal framework and is accompanied by strict technical and organisational measures. Dialogue with the Privacy Authority is constant because the right to privacy must be balanced with the public interest in combatting evasion, and a solution that reconciles the two needs is always found. For example, the security measures introduced for electronic invoicing or the pseudonymisation systems used in cross-checking databases allow for mass analysis of information without making the subject identifiable. Or the decision to use artificial intelligence only in the pre-investigation phase as support for risk analysis ensures that human intervention is always guaranteed in all phases of data use.<\/span><\/p>\n

Is the recovery of credits slowed by the so-called \u201cfiscal warehouse\u201d \u2013 the sum of accumulated tax credits amounting to over 1200 billion euros?<\/b><\/p>\n

A problem of operational capacity certainly arises considering that since 2000, 170 million tax notices have accumulated. Only in Italy are tax debts kept in the warehouse for such a long period. Although a significant part of these credits is considered unrecoverable, the Agency is still required to continue all appropriate activities to interrupt the prescription terms. This situation objectively prevents us from focussing our energies on more recent credits that have a higher likelihood of being recovered. Despite everything, however, we have managed to make enforced collection much more effective: until 2006, when it was entrusted to private entities, it did not exceed 3-4 billion a year, while now it stands at around ten billion. And last year, also due to the scrapping, it reached a record of over 14 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to OECD data, Italy has one of the highest ratios of uncollected taxes (tax debts) to annual tax revenue and the lowest ratio of collectible tax debts to total tax debts. What are the reasons for this situation?<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite the progressive improvement in collection recorded in recent years, the fiscal warehouse has been stratified due to the roles inherited from the past: 335 billion refer to the period 2000-2010, to which another 450 billion were added until 2017 when the Revenue Collection Agency was established. The root cause is a cumbersome regulatory framework inherited from the past. When collection was carried out by private entities until 2006, it was necessary to demonstrate that all conceivable actions had been taken, regardless of an assessment of probable effectiveness, before being able to return uncollectible notices to the creditor entity. Despite the fact that collection is now in public hands, the same rules still apply, and this has contributed over the years to creating the current situation. As noted by both the OECD and the International Monetary Fund, the failure to cancel past and uncollectible charges has led to such a high amount of tax credits.<\/span><\/p>\n

To streamline the fiscal warehouse, the government has proposed a legislative decree that includes the appointment of a commission to support the Agency\u2019s investigation activities. How do you envision the collaboration? Will the commission be given the total amount of warehouse debts, or will the investigation activity at least try to calculate the probability of tax debt collection starting from the data for categories of taxpayers?<\/b><\/p>\n

Based on the indications and needs that will emerge during the work, the commission will be provided with all the necessary information to allow an accurate assessment of the credits stratified over time, including data on debt divided into homogeneous groups based on what we expect to collect. The commission will then be able to identify and propose possible solutions that allow for the discharge of part of the warehouse, which will then have to be implemented with subsequent measures.<\/span><\/p>\n

In general, international best practices suggest that preventive action against the formation of tax debt is necessary: data analysis now allows predicting which taxpayers are most at risk of non-payment and adopting specific policies towards them. I\u2019m thinking, for example, of Belgium, where prediction is used to identify the best way to encourage each taxpayer to pay (phone call, letter, email, text message…). Where does Italy stand on this front?<\/b><\/p>\n

We are in line with international best practices. In some cases, such as for electronic invoicing, we are considered a model abroad. But evasion is not necessarily planned; it can also be an error or oversight caused by the system’s complexity, so it must be treated in different ways. In addition to letters inviting regularisation, the channels through which we contact citizens range from the classic registered letter sent to the home to email and digital communication in the tax drawer, and we have activated personalised messages sent to the IO App, even to remind them of tax deadlines. As for data analysis, which has always been used to cross-check information in various Agency databases, network analysis now allows for a step further: discovering new relationships between subjects, revealing inconsistencies that would otherwise escape human observation, and knowing which investigative activity is most suitable to employ.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let’s focus on the numbers. In 2023, the recovery of tax evasion was 24.7 billion. Of this, more than 5 billion are revenues linked to extraordinary measures (tax notice scrapping, pending litigation settlement, and tax amnesty), while the remaining 20 billion result from ordinary Agency interventions, roughly the same as in 2022. Given that a portion of the hidden economy is reduced even without controls, for example, when the economic situation improves, how do you estimate the recovered amount? And how do actual revenues relate to what there would have been without the Agency\u2019s controls?<\/b><\/p>\n

The figure exceeds 31 billion if you also consider the activity carried out by the Revenue Collection Agency on behalf of other entities, such as INPS, INAIL, and municipalities: more than is usually allocated by a budget law. These are sums resulting from the overall control activity of these years that would not otherwise have been spontaneously paid by taxpayers. Even in cases where the legislator has waived penalties and interest, the payment of the higher taxes originally contested has been ensured. This result, which reflects a growing trend over the years, is due to a mix of various tools used according to their effectiveness in specific cases. For example, payments made following control activities and even before issuing a tax notice have increased, these alone yielding almost 12 billion. However, collections resulting from compliance promotion letters I mentioned earlier have grown even more: thanks to this tool, 4.2 billion were collected, over 30% more than in 2022. Last year we also \u201csaved\u201d the state 76 billion by uncovering fraud, blocking unwarranted compensations, and preventing non-entitled VAT refunds. To further improve results, we are strengthening our capabilities through two fundamental factors: technological resources and human resources.<\/span><\/p>\n

How is it possible that there are still total evaders around? Where does the reporting mechanism fail?<\/b><\/p>\n

Total evaders, by definition, do not file tax returns; in most cases, they do not have assets registered in their name, except for frontmen, and use untraceable payment channels. These individuals try to make themselves invisible. However, today the technology and databases we have allow us to intercept economic and financial operations that do not correspond to declared incomes. Every year tens of thousands of total evaders are discovered who then enter our databases and are monitored. Just last year, we conducted assessments on 99,547 individuals who had not filed tax returns. In addition, another 40,000 total evaders, completely unknown to the tax authorities, were identified in 2023, and proceedings are underway against them. Recently, we signed a protocol with the Guardia di Finanza to strengthen collaboration in combating tax evasion and fraud: we have already shared information about several thousand individuals who, despite not having filed tax returns, have significant inflows in their bank accounts.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the Court of Auditors, the probability of an economic activity being subject to actual control is very limited, below 6% in 2022. Is this a number to increase, or is it a deliberate choice motivated by increasingly targeted controls on high-risk taxpayers?<\/b><\/p>\n

The matter is a bit more complex because there is often confusion between \u201ccontrols\u201d in general and assessments. The Agency checks all the tax returns submitted each year against the payments made. Additionally, only in reference to VAT holders, based on data cross-checking, it sends two million letters a year, which are genuine invitations to regularise their position. We could call it a gentle nudge against evasion, less invasive but no less effective considering the results. Taxpayers showing anomalies requiring more in-depth investigation are subjected to assessment. So, to answer your question, the fact that only a small percentage undergoes a more thorough control does not mean that no checks are carried out on the rest.<\/span><\/p>\n

We know that one of the problems the Agency faces is staff shortages. In 2022, the non-managerial staff was short by about 13,000 positions. By when will the Treasury be able to fully restore its workforce?<\/b><\/p>\n

We are climbing back up after working with reduced ranks for over ten years. Just think that in 2012, the Agency\u2019s staff was about 41,000 units, while at the end of 2022, it had fallen below 28,000: we are talking about over 30% less. Thanks to extraordinary resource allocations and the push from the PNRR, we have been able to implement a significant recruitment plan that includes hiring 11,000 new colleagues. The goal is to bring the total non-managerial staff to about 39,000 units by the end of 2026, net of retirements.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bio<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Greta Ardito is a journalist and editorial coordinator for <\/span>Eco<\/span>. She has worked for Sky TG24 and Class CNBC and has collaborated with Lavoce.info, Wired Italia, Linkiesta, and Il Foglio.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ernesto Maria Ruffini has been the Director of the Revenue Agency since January 2020, a position he previously held from July 2017 to September 2018. 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