{"id":4072,"date":"2024-09-02T12:10:07","date_gmt":"2024-09-02T10:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=4072"},"modified":"2024-09-02T12:10:07","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T10:10:07","slug":"how-the-mafia-infiltrates-the-italian-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/09\/02\/how-the-mafia-infiltrates-the-italian-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"How the Mafia Infiltrates the Italian Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Organised crime does not infiltrate legal businesses solely to involve them in criminal activities. Providing healthy companies with its vast liquidity allows the mafia to expand its relational capital and ultimately extend its influence over the entire economy. These are the surprising and concerning results of the Mapping of Infiltrated Businesses<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The United Nations estimates that criminal organisations generate between $2,000 and $3,000 billion annually from their illicit activities (equivalent to 3-4% of global GDP)\u2014as much as is produced by a country like Germany. The share of the legal economy infiltrated by mafias is therefore significant even if we cannot precisely determine its extent. But we must not only look at the numbers involved in mafia infiltration of the economy; we must also be interested in their motivations since these can influence the types of policies needed to combat them. This is precisely what a recent study of the Italian case does with surprising results.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Dataset of Colluded and Infiltrated Businesses<\/b><\/p>\n

The study is based on Mapping, a new dataset assembled by the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) of the Bank of Italy for its strategic analysis. It is a highly confidential census of businesses operating in Italy potentially connected to organised crime contexts. The construction of the Mapping\u2014a unique dataset in the global landscape\u2014takes place in two phases.<\/span><\/p>\n

The first step involves cross-referencing individuals reported to the FIU for suspected money laundering with the archives of the National Anti-Mafia Directorate, which includes individuals involved in various capacities in pre-investigative, investigative, and judicial activities related to mafia crimes. To reduce the possibility of error, the cross-referencing is limited to the highest-risk individuals. A business is generally considered infiltrated if an individual belonging to a criminal organisation or acting on its behalf (or connected to it) invests financial or human resources to participate in the decision-making process of a legitimate activity. The individual can be entirely \u201cexternal\u201d to the criminal organisation: in this case, we can speak of businesses colluding with organised crime rather than infiltrated.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the second step of the Mapping construction, a legal business is defined as infiltrated (or colluded) if it has at least one owner, manager, or auditor among the identified individuals (both “internal” and “external” to criminal organisations; the Mapping cannot distinguish between strictly infiltrated and colluding businesses). The businesses included in the Mapping cannot be considered definitively infiltrated, controlled, or connected to organised crime. However, the adopted methodology implies that an individual with a significant risk of connection to a mafia consortium plays a prominent role in the business. In this definition, the contribution of financial resources is not a necessary condition for infiltration.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Mapping has some limitations. First, “false positives”\u2014cases of non-genuine infiltration\u2014cannot be excluded, although the approach was designed to minimise them. It certainly suffers from “false negatives,” i.e., genuine infiltrations not identified. By definition, individuals not appearing in all the cross-referenced databases are not included in the Mapping. Moreover, the methodology overlooks cases of infiltration where partners or managers are not involved. The version of the Mapping used in the study identifies over 100,000 businesses potentially connected to organised crime contexts (hereafter for convenience simply defined as \u201cinfiltrated\u201d). They represent about 2% of all legal businesses in Italy (excluding individual firms) and tend to be larger than non-infiltrated businesses. Considering business size\u2014measured in terms of employment or turnover\u2014the infiltration percentages increase.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mafias Have an Interest in Infiltrating All Sectors of the Economy<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The map shows the territorial incidence of infiltrated businesses. Unsurprisingly, it is higher in the regions of origin of the main mafia consortia, with the peak recorded in Reggio Calabria. However, two-thirds of all businesses identified by the Mapping as infiltrated are located in the more prosperous (and more business-rich) regions of Central and Northern Italy. The incidence of businesses potentially connected to organised crime is higher in provinces with lower per capita income\u2014in line with the evidence that mafias originate in less developed regions which they have, in turn, stifled economically.<\/span><\/p>\n

The graph illustrates the sectoral distribution of businesses considered infiltrated compared to that of all businesses in the economy. On the one hand, the evidence confirms that some sectors, particularly those dealing with public administration, are particularly vulnerable to infiltration: there are disproportionately high shares of infiltrated businesses in construction, transportation and warehousing, and public utility companies like water and waste management. However, the figure also highlights another crucial aspect: infiltrated businesses have a sectoral distribution that broadly represents the national economic structure. This suggests that although criminal organisations are attracted to sectors where they can best deploy their criminal skills, this is not the only reason for infiltration: the clans have a strong interest in penetrating all segments of the legal economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Geographical and Sectoral Distribution of Infiltrated Businesses<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Note: The figures present the geographical and sectoral distribution of infiltrated businesses (as described in the text) identified in the Mapping selection used in the study. The panel on the left reports the total number of infiltrated businesses compared to the average number of businesses per province. The panel on the right shows the share of businesses (infiltrated) by sector compared to the total number of businesses (infiltrated).<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: \u201cMafias and Firms\u201d Arellano-Bover J., De Simoni M., Guiso L., Macchiavello R., Marchetti D.J., and Prem M. CEPR DP 18982, 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Businesses Not Involved in Criminal Activities<\/b><\/p>\n

This last observation motivates a new conceptual framework. Traditionally, both lawmakers and existing studies have assumed that the infiltrated business is primarily used to 1) conduct or support criminal activities (e.g., to facilitate money laundering) or 2) take advantage of criminal behaviours within the infiltrated business (e.g., through threats to competitors or acts of corruption to acquire market shares). Consistent with this interpretation, Article 416-bis of the Italian Criminal Procedure Code defines the infiltrated business as one that benefits from the criminal organisation’s intimidating force to acquire direct or indirect economic advantages. In both cases, the legal business is “contaminated” by the criminal consortium’s activities. But the data and logic suggest that this is a partial definition.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is reasonable to suppose that contaminating a legal business with criminal activities increases the risk of investigations and confiscation. This suggests that criminal organisations face a cost-benefit calculation and may, at least in principle, decide to infiltrate legal businesses without directly involving them in criminal activities. In this type of infiltration\u2014which we define as \u201cpure\u201d to distinguish it from \u201ccontaminated\u201d ones where legal businesses are involved in criminal activities\u2014criminal organisations enter legal businesses to obtain financial returns or other benefits that can be valuable for expanding their activities (legal and illegal) and their influence. The empirical analysis of the businesses in the Mapping considered in the study confirms this conceptual framework. The key idea is that the types of infiltration\u2014contaminated and pure\u2014can be distinguished through statistical analysis comparing the behaviour of infiltrated businesses with that of a suitably selected control sample.<\/span><\/p>\n

Contaminated infiltration tends to alter business operations\u2014such as revenue volume and purchases\u2014to benefit from close connections to criminal activity. Pure infiltration, on the other hand, does not require any distortion of the business\u2019s operations. The two types of infiltration also imply different forms of financial procurement for the business. In the case of pure infiltration, the vast liquidity of criminal organisations results in a substitution of funding sources with a reduction in the role of banks. In the case of contaminated infiltration, the substitution may or may not occur.<\/span><\/p>\n

The traditional characterisation that infiltration always involves criminal activities applies well to the small and medium-sized businesses in the Mapping considered in the study, often directly established by criminal organisations (businesses \u201cborn infiltrated\u201d). However, many businesses are already economically well-established at the time of infiltration: the behaviour of \u201cborn clean\u201d businesses is on average in line with the implications of what we have defined as pure infiltration, where the infiltrated business remains disconnected from criminal activities. \u201cBorn clean\u201d businesses are larger and represent 85% of the total capital invested in infiltrated businesses. This suggests that pure infiltration is an extremely relevant phenomenon.<\/span><\/p>\n

An Influence Extending to the Entire Society<\/b><\/p>\n

The new perspective on the infiltration of criminal organisations into legal businesses has important operational and strategic implications. From an operational standpoint, the allocation of scarce resources to combat organised crime, the formulation of screening algorithms, and the extent of financial analysis dedicated to fighting mafias depend on the extent to which criminal organisations involve legal businesses in criminal activities or not. From a strategic standpoint, a more concerning conclusion emerges when reflecting on the nature of the benefits criminal organisations derive from pure infiltration. Alongside financial returns from investing abundant liquidity in productive legal activities, it is highly likely that pure infiltration is primarily motivated by non-pecuniary benefits: the criminal organisation could use the business to expand its \u201crelational capital\u201d by establishing relationships with important actors in the legal economy such as other businesses, industry associations, public administrations, politicians, etc. The empirical analysis of the businesses considered in the study confirms that mafia infiltration is closely linked to the political connections of the legal business, particularly pronounced in the case of larger \u201cborn clean\u201d businesses. Over time, connections with key actors in the legal economy can transform into influence, power, and through lobbying activities, influence policies aimed at combating organised crime, strengthening the control of criminal organisations over the economy and society as a whole.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bio<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Rocco Macchiavello is a professor of managerial economics & strategy at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences. He has held positions at the universities of Oxford, Harvard, and Warwick. He is co-editor of the Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Domenico J. Marchetti is the head of the Data Science Service at the Anti-Money Laundering Unit of the Bank of Italy. Previously, he was a manager at the Bank\u2019s Research Service. He has taught at Tor Vergata and the University of Molise.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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