{"id":4077,"date":"2024-09-02T12:12:42","date_gmt":"2024-09-02T10:12:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=4077"},"modified":"2024-09-02T12:14:36","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T10:14:36","slug":"mafias-a-bad-deal-for-the-south-and-the-north","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/09\/02\/mafias-a-bad-deal-for-the-south-and-the-north\/","title":{"rendered":"Mafias: a bad deal for the South and the North"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is undeniable that criminal organisations create jobs.<\/span><\/i> But they also take opportunities away from legitimate businesses, thus impoverishing the regions in which they operate, as the case of Puglia shows.<\/span><\/i> The mafia economy is no longer confined to the South: drugs and money laundering are driving a creeping infiltration into the economic fabric of the North.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cWithout the <\/span>\u2018ndrangheta<\/span><\/i>, the unemployment rate in Calabria would be much higher. At least 10% higher than the current one\u201d. This statement did not come from a controversial local notable or an official colluding with organised crime, but from Fabrizio De Andr\u00e9 during his last concert in August 1998 in Roccella Jonica, deep in <\/span>\u2018Ndrangheta<\/span><\/i> territory and a few years after the mafia bombs of the early 1990s. However, it is hard to believe that the Genoese singer-songwriter sympathised with <\/span>mafiosi<\/span><\/i> \u2013 perhaps with criminals like the Mich\u00e8 of his eponymous ballad, certainly not with bosses like Tot\u00f2 Riina, Giovanni Brusca and Matteo Messina Denaro. Nor was he trying to make headlines with provocative statements. More simply, he expressed, with the frankness and intellectual honesty that characterised his life, an unspeakable conviction that lurks in the mind of many people: in the poor regions of the South, the mafias can, after all, create jobs. The consensus they sometimes enjoy is partly based on this belief, even more than on their power of intimidation. Today, there are few who deny the violent and profoundly unjust nature of criminal organisations, but there are many more who recognise their ability to create jobs and wealth – most often in the underground economy, but sometimes also in the legal economy – in some of the poorest areas of the country.<\/span><\/p>\n

The damage caused by the Mafia economy<\/b><\/p>\n

It is undeniable that criminal organisations create jobs, whether it be the thousands of people involved at various levels in drug trafficking, or the businesses created from scratch to launder money, or the workers employed in public contracts obtained through bribery or intimidation. However, even ignoring the ethical implications of such activities and focussing on purely economic aspects, we must ask ourselves how many and what opportunities the regions of Southern Italy have lost over the last 150 years due to the presence of the Mafia. The companies created by criminal organisations are counterbalanced by those destroyed or never even created because of them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even if we cannot observe this alternative scenario – the \u201ccounterfactual\u201d in social sciences jargon- we can still speculate. Without organised crime, the <\/span>Mezzogiorno<\/span><\/i>\u2019s ability to attract foreign investment, a major driver of economic development that requires clear rules and a stable and secure social environment, would improve. Local entrepreneurs would be free from the \u201c<\/span>pizzo<\/span><\/i>\u201d (protection money) and, above all, from the unfair competition of colluding companies that sell below cost as they are used solely for money laundering.<\/span><\/p>\n

These scenarios are consistent with the results of a recent study by Alessandra Fenizia and Raffaele Saggio, currently being published in the American Economic Review, which analyses various indicators of economic activity in 245 municipalities dissolved for mafia-related reasons (almost all in the South) between 1991 and 2016. The dissolution measures aim to sever the connivance links between local officials and mafia clans. Comparing the economic data of these municipalities with those of other similar municipalities that were not, however, dissolved for mafia-related reasons – the counterfactual – shows that in the years following dissolution, the number of businesses increased by an average of 9% (associated with a 17% increase in employment), thanks mainly to increased competition in sectors such as construction, waste disposal, and public procurement.<\/span><\/p>\n

These results are in line with those of another \u201cexperiment\u201d in the opposite direction, namely the spread of organised crime into new territories. This is the case of Puglia, which until the first decades after World War II represented, among the southern regions, a success story in terms of investment and economic growth. The situation changed drastically from the mid-1970s onwards, following the colonisation by criminal organisations from other regions, involved, among other things, in cigarette smuggling and, subsequently, human trafficking on the illegal Adriatic routes. In a study I conducted for the Parliamentary Anti-Mafia Commission, I show how the expansion of organised crime in Puglia has led to an unstoppable economic decline. The first figure shows that in the same years in which homicides quadrupled (<\/span>graph on the left<\/span>), GDP per capita accumulated a 15-20% gap over two decades compared to a group of other regions with similar initial conditions to Puglia, but which did not experience a similar spread of organised crime (the counterfactual, <\/span>graph on the right).<\/span><\/p>\n

Homicides and GDP per capita in Puglia and other regions<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Istat, CRENOS.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Since the presence of criminal organisations in Puglia, no matter how significant, is more recent and less endemic than in the three regions traditionally affected by mafia – Sicily, Campania and Calabria – it is fair to assume that in the latter the economic and social costs are even higher. It is therefore not surprising that the four regions are also the poorest in the country, with a GDP per capita of less than half that of Lombardy and Emilia Romagna (as the histogram shows).<\/span><\/p>\n

GDP per capita in the Italian regions, 2022 (in euros)<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Istat.<\/span><\/p>\n

The North and the drug market<\/b><\/p>\n

Moreover, even the richest northern regions have been affected by organised crime for decades, as evidenced by the maxi-trials regularly held in bunker-like courtrooms in northern Italy. The most recent one, Aemilia, handed out 700 years of prison sentences but certainly did not eradicate the problem, as shown by the various related investigations in subsequent years – Grimilde, Perseverance, Radici, to name but a few. The recent working paper \u201cMafia and Firms\u201d, a collaboration between the Financial Intelligence Unit (Uif) of the Bank of Italy and the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (Eief), and presented in detail by one of the authors, Rocco Macchiavello, in this same issue of <\/span>eco<\/span><\/i>, estimates that two-thirds of the infiltrated firms in Italy are based in the Centre-North.<\/span><\/p>\n

Organised crime presents itself in the North in a very different guise from the one we are used to seeing in the South. Firstly, the goals and priorities are different.<\/span><\/p>\n

The cities of the North represent the main market for drugs, for which these areas have paid a high cost in terms of human lives. According to data provided by the Ministry of the Interior, overdose deaths in the North from 1984 to 2018 totalled 16,000 – more than all those recorded in the Centre and the South combined. After all, drugs have always been a scourge for the world\u2019s richest areas: just consider the fact that, with over 100 thousand deaths from drug overdose each year, the United States is by far the country with the highest number of deaths.<\/span><\/p>\n

More opportunities for money laundering<\/b><\/p>\n

The second purpose pursued by the mafia in the North, closely linked to the drug market and other lucrative criminal activities, is money laundering. The billions of euros from drug sales are worthless (or, worse, a one-way ticket to prison) unless their illegal origin is first concealed. It is therefore necessary to generate fictitious revenues to justify the availability of large sums of money to networks of front men and shell companies. There are various methods to do this, more or less sophisticated, such as false invoices for goods and services never produced or capital gains from real estate sales. In any event, all these methods require high volumes of transactions and investments. From this point of view, the northern regions certainly offer more opportunities than those in the South. It is only partly surprising, therefore, that a city like Reggio Emilia, until a few decades ago an example of local good governance, civic associationism and high quality of life, is consistently at the top of the anti-mafia disqualifications (administrative measures that exclude companies from contracts with public administrations) – 61 in 2023, second only to Naples.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, disqualified companies inextricably linked to organised crime (often also through family ties), represent only the tip of the iceberg. There are many more companies \u201coutside\u201d organised crime, but colluding with it, that launder money through false invoicing, obtaining significant tax advantages that are nothing but outright evasion. Once again, Reggio Emilia and other happy islands (or supposedly so) in Emilia Romagna and Lombardy are emerging as national capitals of false invoicing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even more than in the <\/span>Mezzogiorno<\/span><\/i>, the costs of this creeping infiltration into the economic fabric of Northern Italy are difficult to estimate, as it is a quieter and still partially misunderstood phenomenon. However, some costs are easy to guess. Companies connected to the mafia, which pursue other goals than economic efficiency and at the same time have access to an almost unlimited supply of illicit capital, harm other companies in the market. Consumers and workers are potential victims of products and production processes below standard. Finally, all citizens can pay a price, as economic influence is sooner or later followed by political influence: proof of this can be seen in the dissolution measures for mafia infiltration that in recent years have affected an increasing number of municipalities in the North.<\/span><\/p>\n

Those who thought that the North had \u201cantibodies\u201d have had to change their minds. Now it is time to think about antibiotics, without waiting for a provocation from a singer passing through a club in Milan or a dance hall in Emilia to remind us of that.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bio<\/span><\/p>\n

Paolo Pinotti is Professor of Economics and Vice Rector of Human Resources at Bocconi University. He is also director of the CLEAN research group on the Economic Analysis of Crime at the Baffi Center and coordinator of the Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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