{"id":4594,"date":"2024-10-07T21:54:33","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T19:54:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=4594"},"modified":"2024-10-07T21:54:33","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T19:54:33","slug":"myths-and-realities-about-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/10\/07\/myths-and-realities-about-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Myths and Realities about Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

We worry a lot about it, but we have limited knowledge and often approach it armed with all the wrong perceptions. Inflation, however, is not only a negative phenomenon; it has positive aspects that we overlook due to our prejudices. Indeed, economic theory offers at least four explanations on the subject.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Inflation has returned to our economic and social lives in a way unseen in 40 years. It exploded in the eurozone at the beginning of 2021, reached a peak of 11% in mid-2022, and then declined by mid-2024 to values considered almost normal (see figure below). We had long since stopped asking where inflation originates. Today, however, it is perhaps one of the most frequently asked questions among the public.<\/span><\/p>\n

We Worry About Inflation but Know Little About It<\/b><\/h3>\n

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices in the Euro Area (annual rate of change)<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Eurostat.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

When inflation accelerates rapidly, it becomes the most significant concern for the global population, far exceeding many other social issues: poverty, crime, unemployment, and corruption. In September 2021 (see figure on page XXX), only 7% of the world population indicated it as their primary concern. Two years later, with its rampant manifestation in various countries, inflation became the top concern worldwide (40% compared to 30% for poverty).<\/span><\/p>\n

Issues That Concern the Global Population 2020-2022 (percentage)<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The figure represents the percentage of respondents indicating a given phenomenon as their primary concern (country average). Source: Ipsos Global Advisor.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What makes inflation interesting is that while we worry about it a lot when it occurs, we have a very limited understanding of it. In financial education studies, a common question is: \u201cSuppose the interest rate on a savings account is 1% and inflation is 2%. After one year, will we be able to buy more, fewer, or the same amount of goods as before?\u201d In Italy, over 40% of the population answers incorrectly or does not know. This question is about the basic effects of inflation, particularly its ability to erode the purchasing power of any nominal amount, such as the interest rate on a savings account in the example. International comparative financial education studies always place Italy among the lowest ranks of advanced countries. Our understanding of inflation is no exception, despite it being a phenomenon we are particularly concerned about.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why Do We Fight Inflation?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Not only do we worry a lot about inflation, but when it occurs, we deeply oppose it for three main reasons, all based on erroneous perceptions. Firstly, we believe that inflation erodes our well-being because people typically perceive nominal wages as moving much slower than prices. Secondly, from a sense of injustice. The average citizen believes that the wages of higher-income earners grow more than those of lower-middle-income earners. Thirdly, people perceive greed from employers. According to common opinion, companies typically try to increase profits by raising prices faster than wages. Generally, the public blames the government or the \u201cbusiness world\u201d for inflation rather than considering market forces or economic laws as possible causes. In the United States, for example, President Joe Biden and his administration are blamed as the main culprits for high inflation. This perception has been crucial in lowering the president\u2019s popularity rating over the past three years and could be decisive in the 2024 presidential election. Few see the positive side of inflation: high inflation tends to be associated with low unemployment. We perceive instead that inflation and unemployment move in the same direction and consider the former as an indicator of the economy\u2019s negative state. For everyone, inflation only has costs and no benefits. When it occurs, it worsens our expectations of future socio-economic well-being. Not only does it have strong psychological costs, but it also causes stress because it limits, according to common perception, access to essential goods. Interestingly, if prices rise, we blame \u201cthe government.\u201d If nominal wages rise, we take all the credit ourselves. Few Americans will credit Biden for the growth in real wages from 2019 to 2023, seeing it as the result of personal merit and effort rather than a positive economic legacy of the government. An inflationary cycle always leaves scars. Even if inflation accelerates and then returns to normal levels as it did between 2021 and 2024, it means that the general price index\u2019s growth rate was first high and then low. And while returning to normal values, the cumulative growth over time leaves a higher price level. This explains why, contrary to common perception, we can see a falling inflation rate coexisting with a high price level because the latter results from the cumulative high and low inflation rates over time. \u201cFalling inflation? I don\u2019t believe it; everything is still so expensive!\u201d: this typical distorted perception thus has a simple rational explanation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why is High Inflation Associated with Low Unemployment?<\/b><\/h3>\n

The inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment is called the “Phillips curve,” named after the New Zealand economist who first identified this relationship in the data. According to the modern version of the Phillips curve, inflation depends on the gap between economic activity (or gross domestic product) and its potential value, i.e., the ideal value that the product would assume if all productive factors were employed without frictions. The higher the economic activity relative to potential (or conversely the lower the unemployment relative to potential), the higher the demand for labour from companies. To attract more workers, companies will have to raise real wages, pushing up their costs. These higher costs will eventually be passed on as higher prices, resulting in higher inflation. The Phillips curve is a much-discussed relationship in macroeconomics. At different times and for different countries, the data do not support the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. This is because inflation depends not only on unemployment but also on a second variable that confuses matters, namely inflation expectations. If workers expect higher inflation in the future, they will increase their wage demands to protect nominal wages from the erosion of purchasing power. This pushes up company costs and ultimately prices. Thus, inflation has a self-fulfilling component: the higher the expected future inflation, the higher the current inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Real and Personal Inflation<\/b><\/h3>\n

Each of us measures a “personal” inflation rate differently from the real one. The distortion comes from the presence in the consumption basket of certain goods\u2014such as bread, pasta, coffee, and petrol\u2014that we consume more frequently and pay more attention to. If the price of a cup of coffee rises from 1 to 1.20 euros, in our minds inflation is 20% (a very high number). Even though the prices of many other goods we consume less frequently tend to fall (computers, tablets, cars, televisions). The figure below shows the trends in energy and food inflation: the peaks they have reached are much higher than that of average inflation. This recalls the concept of inflation as a regressive tax. Inflation is indeed a real tax because it erodes the purchasing power of each euro we keep under the mattress. And it is regressive because it hits low-income families more acutely. These families consume a relatively larger share of their income in the form of energy and food, which typically have much more pronounced inflationary dynamics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Food and Energy Inflation in the Euro Area<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Eurostat.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What Explains Inflation?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Economic theory is not unanimous in explaining inflation. We can say that there are four explanatory theories of inflation: (i) monetary inflation; (ii) real inflation; (iii) fiscal inflation; (iv) inflation as conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n

Monetary Inflation<\/b><\/h3>\n

Monetary inflation can be intuitively explained with a simple example from the game of Fantasy Football. Suppose two children, Paolo and Pietro, compete in a Fantasy Football auction. They are given 100 fictitious euros with which to buy eleven players to form a team. First, Messi is auctioned. In their naivety, the children outbid each other to acquire the most valuable player, who ends up being sold after various bids for 60 euros. Then Cristiano Ronaldo is auctioned and sold for 70 euros and so on. The children quickly realize they have almost exhausted their budget. So they ask: instead of 100 euros initially, why can\u2019t we have 200 euros so we can buy not only Messi but also the other ten players? In fact, what the children are asking for is to print more money to be able to buy more players. But what logically does not add up in their reasoning? If the initial money supply were 200 instead of 100 euros, the final price of Messi would not be 60 euros but presumably double, i.e., 120 euros. The purchasing power of Paolo and Pietro would remain unchanged. In this case, we say that money is completely neutral. Printing more money in nominal terms would not allow the children to buy more players because the increase in the price level would leave their real money supply unchanged. Inflation, therefore, is entirely explained by variations in the amount of money printed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Real Inflation<\/b><\/h3>\n

To explain inflation from the monetary side, however, a central hypothesis is necessary: that prices are perfectly flexible, i.e., they adjust instantly like the prices of shares traded on the stock market. In reality, the prices of goods and services we consume, from apples to insurance, are not perfectly flexible but adjust very gradually. Therefore, inflation cannot be explained solely by monetary aggregates. In the short term, it is actually driven by two main engines. The first is the engine of real economic activity and thus the trend of company costs; the second is the engine of expectations. Inflation expectations determine current inflation through wage contracts. Wages are set in nominal terms based on multi-year contracts. If workers and unions, looking to the future, expect prices to rise, they will try to protect the purchasing power of the nominal wage (expressed in euros) and will already demand increases today that will be transferred to labour costs for companies, which will in turn pass on the cost increases to prices. Both channels\u2014that of real costs and that of expectations\u2014explain both the initial impulse of inflation in the euro area (cost channel) and its persistence over time (expectations channel).<\/span><\/p>\n

Fiscal Inflation<\/b><\/h3>\n

A third type is fiscal inflation. The channel is active when economic agents lose confidence in the government\u2019s willingness (or ability) to stabilise the level of public debt in the future. If agents perceive that the budget deficit (the difference between taxes and public spending) is out of control, they expect that sooner or later debt stabilisation will occur through a \u201cmonetary tax,\u201d which is nothing more than the inflation tax. In this scenario of so-called fiscal dominance, even a credible and independent central bank will lose control over inflation, which will be determined by the need to stabilise an out-of-control public deficit. Part of the recent inflation explosion in the US and the euro area is due, non-coincidentally, to the ultra-expansive fiscal policies followed in the post-pandemic period.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inflation as Conflict<\/b><\/h3>\n

At the root of every inflationary phenomenon is always a redistributive conflict between companies and workers. Suppose there is a price increase today. Workers will seek higher nominal wages to avoid the erosion of their purchasing power. In turn, companies, given the higher wage demands, will pass these costs onto prices. Therefore, wages rise given prices, and prices rise given wages. The chase between prices and wages fuels inflation in a spiral that satisfies neither companies nor workers. The way out is the so-called incomes policy. This policy simultaneously requires workers (or unions) to moderate their wage demands despite the erosion of purchasing power due to inflation and companies to moderate their price increases given wage pressures on their costs. As such, it is a difficult policy to implement because it requires continuous coordination between the actions of companies and those of workers. Therefore, central banks carry on influencing economic activity and indirectly inflation through interest rate control. An institutional solution that remains not exactly ideal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bio<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Tommaso Monacelli is a full professor of economics at Bocconi University and a fellow of IGIER Bocconi, CEPR in Paris, and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW). He was the head of the economics department at Bocconi University from 2017 to 2022.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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