{"id":4641,"date":"2024-10-08T10:08:18","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T08:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=4641"},"modified":"2024-10-08T10:08:18","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T08:08:18","slug":"why-we-fear-artificial-intelligence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/10\/08\/why-we-fear-artificial-intelligence\/","title":{"rendered":"Why We Fear Artificial Intelligence"},"content":{"rendered":"

New technologies often have unforeseen consequences that are difficult to reverse. This likely applies to artificial intelligence as well, but halting its development would prevent us from enjoying its benefits. It’s better to engage in small-scale experiments to identify and limit potential harms.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The advent of new technologies tends to trigger widespread anxiety, with common concerns revolving around automation and the replacement of human workers. The Luddites at the dawn of the industrial era are perhaps the most cited example of technophobia, but such worries have resurfaced periodically since then.<\/span><\/p>\n

Is a Pause Necessary?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Compared to previous major technological advances, artificial intelligence seems to be perceived as a more serious threat. What worries us is not just the possibility that machines will replace humans but the fear of human extinction. Recently, a question has been circulating among technology experts: “What is your estimate of the probability that AI will destroy humanity?” The answer can vary depending on the mood of the day. But the exact number on a scale from zero to 100 matters less than the question itself: how pessimistic are you about AI?<\/span><\/p>\n

In March 2023, more than a thousand researchers, scientists, and tech entrepreneurs signed what became known as the “pause letter.” This letter called on all AI labs to halt training systems more powerful than GPT-4 for at least six months. The signatories ranged from AI pioneer Yoshua Bengio to economist Daron Acemoglu and billionaire Elon Musk. One might have expected an alarm raised by such a group of experts not to be ignored, but no official pause was declared. However, it’s worth noting that, at least up until the time of writing, no AI systems significantly more powerful than ChatGPT-4 have been released following the appeal.<\/span><\/p>\n

The precautionary principle inspired the signatories of the letter, suggesting that we should act cautiously and conduct thorough studies before proceeding with activities that could cause irreparable harm. But for every expert advocating caution, there are others pushing for rapid AI development. For over a decade, many economists, including myself, have looked favourably on how AI startups have enabled incredible progress. There have been advances in early cancer diagnosis, security systems, tools to help the disabled, educational opportunities, and autonomous vehicles to enhance the mobility and independence of the elderly. A pause would delay these benefits.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whilst a suspension might be advisable, we should first ensure that our fears regarding potential AI harms are based on more than mere speculation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Origin of Fears<\/b><\/h3>\n

To determine the validity of concerns about AI, it’s worth understanding their origin. Historical experience is certainly the first source of unease. Most new technologies have both benefits and costs, and sometimes the latter outweigh the former. Thomas Midgley Jr. invented tetraethyl lead, a gasoline additive that reduced engine knocking and greatly improved vehicle reliability. He also invented freon, a key chemical for refrigeration. However, his discoveries also caused lead poisoning and released chlorofluorocarbons that depleted the ozone layer. Eventually, both were banned.<\/span><\/p>\n

In their 2023 book “Power and Progress,” Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson argue that what happened with tetraethyl lead and freon is more often the norm. While economists generally believe that the benefits of most new technologies ultimately outweigh the costs, others see AI as the latest in a long line of potentially dangerous technologies adopted before fully understanding their costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

The second source of concern involves identifiable harms that AI can produce. How systems are trained is controversial, as demonstrated by the New York Times lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft for alleged copyright infringement. Some innovators have openly stated that their goal is to replace workers with AI, while students already use large language models to complete exams and assignments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beyond disrupting education and the labour market, AI has already been used for surveillance, to imitate individuals through deepfakes, and to enhance military weapons. There are also legitimate concerns that companies already possessing vast amounts of data could increase their market power. These identifiable harms of technology must be considered in relation to its benefits and, if necessary, countered through regulation or outright bans, as was done with leaded gasoline and chlorofluorocarbons.<\/span><\/p>\n

This brings us to the third source of concern: many consequences of new technologies are unintended and unpredictable. This will likely be the case for AI as well. For example, there is now widespread concern that social media harms children’s mental health. Crucially, there is no simple regulatory solution given the pervasiveness of the platforms.<\/span><\/p>\n

The fact that unintended consequences are often difficult to counter fuels fears and seems to impose a binary choice between AI or no AI, but this is a false dilemma. It simply means that we must engage in various small-scale experiments with AI to identify potential harms while it is still possible to limit their effects.<\/span><\/p>\n

The potential irreversibility of unintended consequences from new technology also suggests a more nuanced and multifaceted role for AI regulation. We need to commit to continuous research to identify consequences as they emerge and conduct appropriate cost-benefit analyses. We should also find ways to make AI adoption more reversible, which might involve institutional and infrastructural reforms. All this will allow us to have a higher level of protection against real harms, should AI have undesirable side effects, while ensuring that society can reap all the benefits it can offer.<\/span><\/p>\n

*This article was produced in collaboration with Project Syndicate.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bio<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Joshua Gans is a professor of strategic management at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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