{"id":5346,"date":"2024-11-21T15:16:39","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T14:16:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5346"},"modified":"2024-11-21T15:16:39","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T14:16:39","slug":"migrants-in-search-of-a-familiar-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/11\/21\/migrants-in-search-of-a-familiar-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Migrants in Search of a Familiar Climate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Adapting to climate change often involves migrating from areas most affected by extreme weather events. These are always difficult and costly choices for those forced to leave their homeland. However, there is an additional factor often overlooked when planning resettlements: whether and to what extent people seek to relocate to areas with a familiar climate.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Climate change is one of the most urgent challenges of our time. Governments across (almost) the entire world are trying to implement “green” policies to slow global warming and reduce the severity of extreme weather events such as floods, hurricanes, and heat waves, which are destined to become more common in the years to come. These policies are essential to combat future climate change, but they are not enough to address the problems of today. The costs of climate change also depend on our ability to adapt to the new situation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Migration as a Form of Adaptation to Climate Change<\/b><\/p>\n

Adaptation can take various forms, from innovation and technological advancements to infrastructure investments and even radical changes in human behaviour. One specific form of behavioural change is migration: people respond to extreme weather events by leaving affected areas. However, moving in the aftermath of catastrophic events does not prevent significant losses in human lives or severe damage to economic activity. But what if people moved beforehand, in anticipation of the climate change affecting the area in which they live?<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s begin with geography. Economists Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg have observed that both global economic activity and population are concentrated in a small fraction of the world\u2019s land, and that the impact of global warming varies across different regions of the planet. For instance, equatorial latitudes are certainly much warmer than northern latitudes (as shown in the top panel of the figure), but colder areas are warming at a faster rate (as shown in the bottom panel). As a result, areas near the equator will suffer more from global warming, while areas closer to the poles, such as Northern Europe, Russia, and Canada, may even benefit.<\/span><\/p>\n

The temperatures in the world (2019) and changes recorded between 1970 and 2019<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Temperatures (2019)<\/span><\/p>\n

Changes in temperatures (1970-2019)<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Note: The top panel shows the distribution of temperatures across different regions of the world in 2019. The bottom panel depicts the trend of local temperature changes between 1970 and 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: Figures adapted from Desmet, K. & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2024). \u201cClimate change economics over time and space.\u201d Annual Review of Economics, 16, pp. 271-304. Original data from the Climatic Research Unit Gridded Time Series (CRU TS) v4, aggregated from monthly to annual averages.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On the other hand, migration involves significant personal costs, often impossible to bear in advance for those ultimately forced to move. Additionally, even when people can afford to migrate, political barriers and growing anti-immigrant sentiments may prevent them from doing so. It is also important to consider that, in the short term, it may be logistically impossible to transfer economic production from hubs like Mumbai or Singapore to currently unpopulated areas like Siberia or Alaska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, quantifying how much migration can help mitigate the impact of climate change is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of alternative mitigation and adaptation policies. In recent decades, economists have integrated insights from the physical sciences into macroeconomic models. For example, building on the pioneering work of Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, Desmet, Rossi-Hansberg, and other co-authors have developed dynamic \u201cspatial integrated assessment\u201d models to estimate the global benefits of migration under different scenarios of global warming and migration costs. While these models represent a significant step forward in the design of mitigation and adaptation policies, they overlook an important aspect: whether, and to what extent, people seek to move to areas with a climate similar to their own. Would someone from a hot country like Somalia willingly move to a much colder place like Minnesota? And if they do, how do they fare? Answering these questions is crucial to fully understanding the costs and benefits of migration as a response to climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Climate and Migrants’ Choices<\/b><\/h3>\n

Along with Marguerite Obolensky and Charles A. Taylor, we asked ourselves whether migrants choose their destinations based on the climate distance from their place of origin. The idea that migrants seek familiar climates is often found in historical accounts. As early as the 1600s, English migrants to North America and the West Indies expressed “deep anxiety” about the health and productivity consequences of climates different from England\u2019s temperate climate. For the Englishman Sir Ferdinando Gorges, New England was \u201cbetter suited to the nature of our people, who find neither satisfaction in colder climates nor health in warmer ones.\u201d Three centuries later, US President Calvin Coolidge argued that \u201cnewcomers from Europe commonly sought climatic conditions similar to those they grew up in. Thus, Scandinavians are mainly found in the northern parts of this country.\u201d Are these anecdotes, or do they reflect generalisable patterns?<\/span><\/p>\n

By analysing both international and internal migration in the United States across different periods, we discovered that immigrants from warmer countries tend to settle in warmer areas, while those from colder countries gravitate toward colder regions. Our findings hold under various conditions and across different data sets, including US census data and mortality records.<\/span><\/p>\n

Does this pattern occur within countries as well? To explore this, we analysed various historical documents. First, we focused on German immigrants in the early 20th century, when they represented 30% of the foreign-born population in the US. Next, we examined Norwegian immigrants between 1865 and 1880, during which more than 250,000 people\u201415% of Norway\u2019s 1865 population\u2014migrated to the US. Census data from the US allows us to track internal migrants from 1850 to 1940, a period of great westward expansion. In all three cases\u2014whether Germans, Norwegians, or internal migrants\u2014individuals from colder (or warmer) regions tended to settle in similarly cold (or warm) destinations in the US.<\/span><\/p>\n

Once it is established that people choose their destination based on the similarity of the climate to their place of origin, the next question is why they do so. One reason relates to human capital and climate-specific skills, such as experience in agriculture or techniques for surviving extreme heat or cold. Indeed, the proximity between origin and destination climates is stronger among farmers and outdoor workers. Another reason people \u201cfollow their climate\u201d is that they find it appealing (personal and cultural preferences come into play). Unsurprisingly, climate distance still influences migrants working in sectors like services, where climate-specific human capital is less relevant than for farmers. Moreover, “climate similarity” still predicts internal migration movements in the US today, despite the fact that American workers are much more insulated from weather conditions than in the past, and less than 3% of the US workforce is employed in agriculture.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

When Migrants End Up in a Different Climate from Their Origin<\/b><\/h3>\n

What happens when migrants relocate to a climate very different from their place of origin? They lack the \u201cindigenous knowledge\u201d needed for everyday activities, resulting in a long and costly adaptation period. For instance, people moving from a warm climate to a cold one need to learn how to drive on icy roads and wear warm clothing. Conversely, those moving from a cold climate to a warm one may not recognise the dangers of being outside during the hottest hours. Social norms and socialisation are also tied to climate, so migrants living in a climate very different from their origin may experience social isolation, with negative effects on their mental health.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is no surprise, then, that US mortality records show that immigrants living in climates very different from their origin have shorter life expectancies. Among immigrants who moved to the US after 1970 and died between 1988 and 2005, an increase in temperature distance of 6.5 degrees Celsius (the sample average) between the place of origin and arrival reduced life expectancy by about 50 days\u2014an effect similar to that estimated for consuming one alcoholic drink per day.<\/span><\/p>\n

Based on measures often used in cost-benefit analyses of regulations (for example, to calculate the benefits of improved air quality in terms of lower mortality rates compared to industry regulation costs), it is also possible to estimate the value of climate similarity between a migrant\u2019s origin and destination: approximately $1,990. This is a significant amount when considering that the cost of reaching the US from Central American countries, including evading customs and border patrol, ranges between $9,000 and $12,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

The costs of climate distance are not limited to the first generation of immigrants but are passed on to the next. US mortality records from 2005 to 2021 indicate that infant mortality is higher among the children of immigrants born in US regions with climates far from their parents’ country of origin. For every additional degree of climate distance between the child\u2019s birth county and the parent\u2019s country of origin, the infant mortality rate increases by approximately 6%\u2014an effect quantitatively comparable to that observed for pesticide use over the past twenty years. Climate distance also influences the likelihood of low birth weight and premature birth.<\/span><\/p>\n

In summary, when people move from warm to cold regions, they need time to adapt to the new climate. This is a factor that should be given more consideration in refugee resettlement policies, especially when thinking that Minneapolis\u2014the coldest city in the US\u2014has welcomed the largest number of Somali migrants, despite Somalia being one of the hottest countries in the world. A better distribution of migrants based on climate origin-destination distance could help improve refugee resettlement and facilitate immigrant integration. More generally, this factor should be considered when designing policies to address climate change, such as resettlement and \u201cmanaged retreat\u201d from areas at high risk of climate impacts.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bio<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Marco Tabellini is an assistant professor in the Business, Government, and International Economy Unit at Harvard Business School. He is affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), and IZA.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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