{"id":5504,"date":"2024-12-10T12:15:55","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:15:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5504"},"modified":"2024-12-10T12:15:55","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:15:55","slug":"the-reasons-behind-the-vote-for-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/the-reasons-behind-the-vote-for-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"The Reasons Behind the Vote for Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

Surviving scandals, failures, and convictions, Donald Trump could return to the White House. It doesn\u2019t matter if he lies or breaks his promises; his supporters continue to believe his words. This is because American society is now polarized, divided into tribes, and deeply unequal, while a white working class that feels betrayed seems unaware of the positive results of Democratic administrations.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Donald Trump represents the greatest threat to American democracy in modern U.S. history. Before him, no president had ever tried to overturn a democratic election to stay in power. No president had ever incited a crowd to storm the Capitol to interrupt the peaceful transfer of power. No president has ever been impeached twice. The first impeachment, as readers might recall, was due to his asking Volodymyr Zelensky during a phone call to start an investigation into Joe Biden, his likely opponent in the 2020 elections, while implying that military aid might not be sent if he didn\u2019t comply\u2014a clear case of extortion. Trump is also the first former president to have been convicted of serious crimes: first for defaming a woman he sexually assaulted, and later for fraud, for paying a porn star he had an affair with to keep quiet during the 2016 campaign. More than twenty women have accused him of sexual assault or harassment, something he even bragged about in a recorded conversation.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Survivor of Endless Scandals<\/b><\/h3>\n

Regardless of the laws he has\u2014or might have\u2014broken, Trump has also violated many unwritten rules that have long governed and stabilized U.S. public life. The Washington Post documented 30,573 instances during his four years as president where he lied or severely misrepresented the facts. Recently, he absurdly claimed that the large crowds at Kamala Harris\u2019s campaign rallies were illusions created by artificial intelligence, despite thousands of eyewitnesses saying otherwise. As president, he proposed a \u201cMuslim ban\u201d to prevent people from nearly all predominantly Muslim countries from emigrating to the United States. Only a court order stopped him from implementing it. While racism has often been a covert undercurrent in American politics, politicians have typically used vague and allusive language, avoiding openly racist expressions. Trump, however, insisted that most Mexicans arriving in the United States were \u201cdrug dealers, criminals, and rapists.\u201d He complained about immigrants coming from \u201cshithole countries,\u201d referring to nations in the Caribbean and Africa. Just a few months ago, he told a large audience of supporters that immigrants were \u201cpoisoning the blood of our country,\u201d a phrase with chilling Nazi echoes.<\/span><\/p>\n

How is it possible that a man who has violated so many formal and informal rules of conduct remains so popular in the country? Recent polls show a virtual tie for the upcoming presidential elections. Trump has survived literally dozens of scandals that would have destroyed the careers of most other politicians. Not surprisingly, he boasted live on television, \u201cI could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone without losing any voters.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A Deeply Polarized America<\/b><\/h3>\n

Many factors help explain this seemingly paradoxical situation. The first\u2014and perhaps most important\u2014is extreme polarization. About 90% of the U.S. electorate firmly supports either Republicans or Democrats and would never consider voting for the other party. The 2024 presidential elections will be decided by two factors: the 10% of undecided voters\u2014generally people who pay little attention to politics and are not particularly well-informed\u2014and voter turnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Once, large shifts among voters were quite common. In 1988, the Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis led by 17 points after the Democratic convention, only to lose to George H.W. Bush by 8 points. Since 2000, all presidential elections have been decided by narrow margins, with the totals for the two parties rarely shifting by more than a few points.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to political scientists, political affiliation is less about ideological positions or policies and more about identity markers\u2014belonging to one tribe or another. Many Trump voters disagree with him on significant policy issues: access to abortion, the need for stricter gun control, tax cuts designed for the middle class instead of the wealthy. Yet they would never consider voting for a Democrat. Even Republicans who do not particularly like Trump and find his rhetoric and behavior distasteful despise Democrats far more.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past thirty years, what political scientists call \u201caffective polarization\u201d\u2014active antipathy toward the other party\u2014has gained strength. As Shanto Iyengar wrote, \u201cIn 1960, only 4-5% of people were bothered by the idea of their child marrying someone from the opposing party, but by 2010, that figure had risen to a third of Democrats and half of Republicans.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Role of Media Balkanization<\/b><\/h3>\n

The polarization has been influenced by a radically changed media landscape. Until the 1980s, the three main television networks broadcast the news every evening for half an hour. They operated under licenses from the federal government and were bound by the \u201cFairness Doctrine,\u201d which ensured a kind of balance; if their news was overly biased, corporations risked losing their licenses. In 1987, Ronald Reagan eliminated these regulations during his push for deregulation. The reasoning was that with the advent of cable television, the public had access to dozens\u2014even hundreds\u2014of channels offering a wide range of perspectives. In reality, niche news channels emerged, where everyone could watch news that aligned with their ideological leanings. Fox News was launched in 1996 by Roger Ailes, a political activist. Cable news, available 24\/7, operates under a completely different economic logic compared to traditional evening broadcasts. Ailes realized that by offering highly partisan news, he could capture a significant niche market at minimal cost: no need for a complex editorial structure, just studio guests sharing provocative and extreme opinions, creating a dramatic atmosphere that keeps viewers from changing the channel. MSNBC does the same on the left, but it is more factual and less popular.<\/span><\/p>\n

The rise of the internet and the creation of thousands of websites have worsened the \u201cbalkanization\u201d of information.<\/span><\/p>\n

A few years after the advent of cable news, political scientists like Robert Shapiro of Columbia University began noticing something new in public opinion data: Democrats and Republicans no longer reacted the same way to news. In the 1960s and 1970s, voters from the two parties had different worldviews but reacted similarly to critical events. American public opinion lost confidence in President Lyndon Johnson during the Vietnam War and in Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal because everyone was aware of the same facts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Things started to change in the early 2000s, during George W. Bush\u2019s presidency. Shapiro observed that as the situation in Iraq deteriorated, Bush\u2019s approval ratings plummeted among Democrats but remained largely stable among Republican voters. In other words, Americans no longer saw the same things when they watched the news.<\/span><\/p>\n

I witnessed this phenomenon firsthand while covering the 2004 Republican National Convention. I asked Republican delegates if they were disappointed with how the Iraq invasion was going. \u201cOh no,\u201d they told me, \u201cit\u2019s going much better than you think, better than what you hear.\u201d And what about the never-found weapons of mass destruction that justified the invasion? \u201cOh, they were found\u2014they were taken out of the country on trains to Syria.\u201d And why, then, did the Bush administration deny their existence and insist the weapons hadn\u2019t been found? \u201cYou have your information, and we have ours,\u201d concluded a delegate from North Carolina.<\/span><\/p>\n

I think this statement perfectly encapsulates today\u2019s America, where everyone lives in their own informational bubble, choosing sources that confirm their beliefs rather than challenge them. This state of affairs has worsened with the proliferation of social media.<\/span><\/p>\n

Both sides behave this way, but Republican voters are more self-referential, and their sources are less reliable. Some studies have shown that people who rely primarily on Fox News are less informed than those who do not follow the news at all. Why? Because Fox viewers are actively misinformed and more likely to believe that Barack Obama was not born in the United States, that he is a secret Muslim, that Democratic Party leaders are pedophiles, and that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are communists. A third of Americans, almost all Trump supporters, believe that the 2020 election was stolen.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Society Divided into Tribes<\/b><\/h3>\n

Changes in the world of information alone cannot explain the Trump phenomenon. American society has developed a series of significant fractures, dividing the population into various tribes.<\/span><\/p>\n

For instance, white working-class voters\u2014especially non-college-educated men, who were traditionally Democrats\u2014have shifted en masse to the Republican Party, which has always been the party of big business. The Democratic Party, once the party of the working man, has become the favorite of educated urban elites and, in the past fifteen years, has won over a majority of college-educated voters. The same phenomenon has occurred in many European countries, including Italy, where former Communist Party voters have shifted their support to the League, the Five Star Movement, and more recently, Brothers of Italy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump understood something that many Republicans and Democrats had not grasped: the offshoring of production over the past thirty-five years created a growing reservoir of anger and frustration, particularly among working-class voters without college degrees, especially men. Nearly six million American factory workers lost their jobs between 2000 and 2010. Union membership has steadily declined over the past fifty years, dropping from over 30% of the workforce to about 10%. Other types of jobs emerged, and tens of millions of women entered the workforce. These changes meant that men, whose fathers and grandfathers could support a family with a factory job, now struggle to make ends meet, juggling multiple jobs, often with lower wages. Meanwhile, inequality has skyrocketed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Average earnings for workers without a college education decreased between 1980 and 2016, while the income of the richest 1% increased by 138%. The United States, once one of the most egalitarian societies in the world, has become one of the most unequal. Previously industrial areas of the country have become degraded and depressed, plagued by unemployment, the opioid epidemic, an increase in divorces and domestic violence, and what economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton have called \u201cdeaths of despair.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Republican and Democratic Responsibility<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Republican Party contributed significantly to the processes of deindustrialization and globalization, starting with Ronald Reagan, who attacked unions and cut the welfare state. Yet the white working class directed its anger toward what was once its party, the Democrats. It was Bill Clinton, a Democrat, who signed NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement), which led to an overall increase in trade with Mexico but also to factory job losses. Clinton also continued the Republican program of financial industry deregulation.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the white working class suffered, the Democratic Party seemed more concerned with promoting the fortunes of traditionally excluded groups: Black people, Hispanics, women, and gays. The Democratic Party became the party of Black Americans through civil rights legislation in the 1960s. Following this trajectory, in 1965, it ended the old policy limiting immigration. Thus, if until 1970, the U.S. population was composed of whites and Blacks\u201487.4% the former and 11.1% the latter, with only 1.4% \u201cother\u201d\u2014millions of people from Asia, Africa, the Caribbean, and the Middle East began arriving. Many of the newcomers were more educated and earned more money than the average American.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today, only 61% of the population is non-Hispanic white. The U.S. is now often described as a \u201cmajority-minority\u201d nation. But by then, the white working class had already become a minority: from 66% of the total population in 1975 to just around 40% today. Trump skillfully tapped into the white working class\u2019s feeling of being \u201ca species on the verge of extinction.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The white working class that helped elect Trump in 2016 is not wrong to be angry. They are not wrong to believe that the system is \u201crigged.\u201d They blamed Mexican immigrants, Black people receiving food stamps, and international trade while ignoring that it was primarily the Republican Party that rigged the system in favor of the wealthy. Reagan\u2019s and Bush\u2019s tax cuts were massive transfers of wealth to those who were already well-off while weakening safety nets for workers, pension systems, and social services. On the other hand, Democrats failed to protect the working class, and in some cases, made things worse, leading to a sense of betrayal among many of their voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

The economic program of the Trump administration, however, did not help the American working class. His tax cuts once again overwhelmingly benefited the wealthy. He failed to deliver the major infrastructure program he had promised. His handling of the pandemic was disastrous, but many Americans viewed it as a natural calamity for which the president bore no responsibility, while giving him credit for the “good economy.” Unemployment indeed dropped from 4.7% in January 2017 to 3.5% in February 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Yet, it is often forgotten that Barack Obama did better under much more difficult economic circumstances following the 2008-2009 financial collapse: during his presidency, unemployment fell from 10% to 4.7%.<\/span><\/p>\n

By the end of his term, Trump left the country with three million fewer jobs and a rising public debt.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Biden Administration\u2019s Record<\/b><\/h3>\n

Joe Biden inherited an economy shattered by the pandemic, with high unemployment and inflation. His administration has been praised by economists for achieving a “soft landing” from inflation and avoiding a recession. Despite a slim majority, Biden succeeded in passing significant measures, including the infrastructure plan, considered the most ambitious effort to address climate change and the transition to clean energy, and the Chips Act, which aims to rebuild the U.S. microchip industry. Sixteen million new jobs have been created.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet, the average American rates his presidency negatively, partly due to the period of high inflation. Two-thirds of Americans today believe the country is moving \u201cin the wrong direction.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

As vice president, Kamala Harris inherits part of Biden\u2019s unpopularity. At the same time, she is a new and exciting candidate\u2014the first Black female candidate for the presidency and the first person of Asian descent. However, nearly a third of voters feel they do not know enough about Harris.<\/span><\/p>\n

The debate on September 10 was an opportunity for both candidates to win over the small number of undecided voters. According to all reports, including those of many Republican political strategists, Harris won decisively, while an uncontrollable Trump began repeating the usual conspiracy theories. And yet, given the extreme polarization of the electorate, this may not make any difference. David French, a conservative columnist for The New York Times and an evangelical Christian living in Tennessee, a deeply red state, describes it well: Trump supporters, he says, seem to believe everything the former president says, no matter how absurd it is, because “years of far-right rhetoric have made millions of ordinary voters vulnerable to the wildest ideas.”<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Surviving scandals, failures, and convictions, Donald Trump could return to the White House. It doesn\u2019t matter if he lies or breaks his promises; his supporters […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9007,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[221],"class_list":["post-5504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Reasons Behind the Vote for Trump - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/the-reasons-behind-the-vote-for-trump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Reasons Behind the Vote for Trump - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Surviving scandals, failures, and convictions, Donald Trump could return to the White House. 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