{"id":5506,"date":"2024-12-10T12:25:28","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:25:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5506"},"modified":"2024-12-10T12:25:28","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:25:28","slug":"all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/","title":{"rendered":"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power"},"content":{"rendered":"

Populism is spreading across many countries. Once a hallmark of Latin American nations, populist leaders now govern in several European countries. This is not good news, as research shows that such leadership weakens economies and democratic institutions. Moreover, populism tends to be a “serial” phenomenon, bringing populists back to power in subsequent periods.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Populism has been rising globally for about two decades. As support for populist parties has grown, so has academic interest in understanding the phenomenon. Yet, our knowledge of its economic and political consequences remains limited. Questions like “How does the economy perform after populists take power?” or “Is populism a threat to liberal democracy?” have largely gone unanswered. Most analyses focus on individual countries or data spanning the last 20\u201330 years, leaving a gap in long-term, global perspectives.<\/span><\/p>\n

Populism: A Longstanding Phenomenon<\/b><\/h3>\n

To address this gap, we built an international database covering about 1,500 leaders (presidents, prime ministers, or equivalents) across 60 countries from 1900 to 2018. Using this dataset, we conducted a historical analysis of populist leadership trends over the last 120 years and assessed their political and economic impacts.<\/span><\/p>\n

We defined “populists” as leaders who center their campaigns and governance around the perceived battle between “the people” (us) and “the elite” (them). Based on this definition, we identified 50 populist leaders, including Jair Bolsonaro, Silvio Berlusconi, and Donald Trump. By contrast, leaders like Vladimir Putin, Ronald Reagan, or Barack Obama do not fit this classification.<\/span><\/p>\n

The first populist president, according to our criteria, was Hip\u00f3lito Yrigoyen, elected in Argentina in 1916. Since then, populism has seen two major peaks: during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the 2010s. The 1980s marked the lowest point for populists in power, but following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1990, the phenomenon began to grow again. By 2018, a historic peak was reached, with populist leaders governing 16 countries\u2014over 25% of our sample. Recent growth in populism is largely attributed to the rise of a new right-wing populism in Europe and other parts of the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

A notable feature of populism is its tendency to re-emerge within a country over time. Having been led by a populist in the past increases the likelihood of being governed by another populist in the future. In half of the countries in our sample, periods of populist governance alternated between left- and right-wing populism.<\/span><\/p>\n

Long-Term Economic Costs<\/b><\/h3>\n

To study the economic impact of populist governance, we measured gaps in average real GDP growth rates. Countries governed by populists experience about one percentage point lower annual growth, both compared to their long-term growth rates and global growth rates during the same period. These negative effects persist five years and even 15 years after populists take office, demonstrating long-term economic harm.<\/span><\/p>\n

We further investigated the economic consequences by constructing hypothetical “twin countries” through an algorithm. These twins mirrored the real countries’ growth trends before populist leaders assumed power. The findings were stark: 15 years after populist leadership begins, the real country’s GDP growth is over 10 percentage points lower than its hypothetical twin. The economic divergence begins soon after populists take office, and the real economy fails to recover.<\/span><\/p>\n

Destabilizing Democracy<\/b><\/h3>\n

Populism also undermines democratic institutions. Checks and balances essential for holding governments accountable weaken significantly under populist regimes. This trend holds true for both left- and right-wing populism, as evidenced by comparisons with non-populist “twin countries.” Freedom of voting and press freedom also deteriorate under populist governance.<\/span><\/p>\n

How do populist leaders exit office? Rarely without conflict, and often by undermining democratic norms. Among the 41 populist governments identified since 1970, only nine had orderly transitions of power. In the other 32 cases:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Eight leaders refused to leave office despite losing elections or reaching term limits.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Three leaders died in office.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Thirteen leaders resigned voluntarily.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Eight were forced out through coups, impeachments, or no-confidence votes.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Our research shows that populists in power cause lasting economic and institutional damage. On average, their tenure leads to substantial declines in real GDP per capita, protectionist trade policies, unsustainable debt dynamics, and erosion of democratic institutions.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The shadow of populism extends into the future, as countries led by populists today are more likely to have populist leaders again. Argentina and Ecuador, for example, have experienced recurring populist leadership since 1916.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The pressing question is whether advanced countries will follow a similar pattern of “serial populism” in the coming years and decades. History suggests this is not an improbable scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Populism is spreading across many countries. Once a hallmark of Latin American nations, populist leaders now govern in several European countries. This is not good […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9012,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[218,220,219],"class_list":["post-5506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAll the Damage Populists Cause in Power - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Populism is spreading across many countries. Once a hallmark of Latin American nations, populist leaders now govern in several European countries. This is not good […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-10T11:25:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Manuel Funke, Christoph Trebesch, Moritz Schularick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Manuel Funke, Christoph Trebesch, Moritz Schularick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Manuel Funke\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0ebb2c028cba9341f8e0a39fe52e0b48\"},\"headline\":\"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-10T11:25:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":734,\"articleSection\":[\"Non categorizzato\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/\",\"name\":\"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power - Rivista Eco\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-10T11:25:28+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0ebb2c028cba9341f8e0a39fe52e0b48\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/10\\\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Rivista Eco\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0ebb2c028cba9341f8e0a39fe52e0b48\",\"name\":\"Manuel Funke\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/d24506f9876abf0da54d5cc244b5f2cb6a1e0ec52cf5d70ef7613cfdbb76f35c?s=96&d=mm&r=g3a00131b05638facb37977aa0aee1cfc\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/d24506f9876abf0da54d5cc244b5f2cb6a1e0ec52cf5d70ef7613cfdbb76f35c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/d24506f9876abf0da54d5cc244b5f2cb6a1e0ec52cf5d70ef7613cfdbb76f35c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Manuel Funke\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/author\\\/mfunke\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power - Rivista Eco","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power - Rivista Eco","og_description":"Populism is spreading across many countries. Once a hallmark of Latin American nations, populist leaders now govern in several European countries. This is not good […]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/","og_site_name":"Rivista Eco","article_published_time":"2024-12-10T11:25:28+00:00","author":"Manuel Funke, Christoph Trebesch, Moritz Schularick","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Manuel Funke, Christoph Trebesch, Moritz Schularick","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/"},"author":{"name":"Manuel Funke","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0ebb2c028cba9341f8e0a39fe52e0b48"},"headline":"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power","datePublished":"2024-12-10T11:25:28+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/"},"wordCount":734,"articleSection":["Non categorizzato"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/","name":"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power - Rivista Eco","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-12-10T11:25:28+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0ebb2c028cba9341f8e0a39fe52e0b48"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/all-the-damage-populists-cause-in-power\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"All the Damage Populists Cause in Power"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/","name":"Rivista Eco","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0ebb2c028cba9341f8e0a39fe52e0b48","name":"Manuel Funke","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d24506f9876abf0da54d5cc244b5f2cb6a1e0ec52cf5d70ef7613cfdbb76f35c?s=96&d=mm&r=g3a00131b05638facb37977aa0aee1cfc","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d24506f9876abf0da54d5cc244b5f2cb6a1e0ec52cf5d70ef7613cfdbb76f35c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d24506f9876abf0da54d5cc244b5f2cb6a1e0ec52cf5d70ef7613cfdbb76f35c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Manuel Funke"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/author\/mfunke\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9012"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5506"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5534,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5506\/revisions\/5534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5506"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=5506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}