{"id":5520,"date":"2024-12-10T12:15:21","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:15:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5520"},"modified":"2024-12-10T12:15:21","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:15:21","slug":"when-dictatorship-masquerades-as-democracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/when-dictatorship-masquerades-as-democracy\/","title":{"rendered":"When dictatorship masquerades as democracy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Some argue that we are in the midst of a \u201cdemocratic recession\u201d: dictatorships and autocracies are on the rise globally. Manipulative regimes are especially insidious forms of authoritarianism because they pretend to be democracies. Yet, by adopting this \u201cdisguise,\u201d they implicitly acknowledge the superiority of the democratic model.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

In 1989, political scientist Francis Fukuyama published an essay titled <\/span>\u201cThe End of History,\u201d<\/span><\/i> where he argued that, after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, liberal democracy had triumphed over Nazism and communism, marking the end of the ideological struggles that defined the 20th century.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the 21st century, especially in its second decade, this situation has become far less clear, leading some to speak of a \u201cdemocratic recession.\u201d Not only has the number of democratic countries and the global population living under democracy stopped growing, but by some measures, both have even declined.<\/span><\/p>\n

This notion is reinforced from an economic perspective: the share of global GDP produced by non-democratic countries has significantly increased.<\/span><\/p>\n

The democratic model\u2019s rivals, thought to have disappeared with the \u201cend of history,\u201d are now resurging, creating a new narrative in which \u201cautocracies outperform democracies.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Which countries are autocratic in the 21st century<\/b><\/h3>\n

When thinking of autocratic countries, China inevitably comes to mind. China is largely responsible for the rise in the \u201cnon-democratic\u201d share of 21st-century global GDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

For a long time, Beijing adopted a governance model based on regular leadership rotation and meritocratic promotion. In democratic countries, these principles are enshrined in constitutions and guaranteed by systems of checks and balances. However, autocracies are constantly tempted to stay in power indefinitely and to replace merit with loyalty. This is precisely what happened in China in 2017, when the Communist Party congress declined to appoint a successor to Xi Jinping, who remains in power today.<\/span><\/p>\n

Then there are the oil monarchies, decisively undemocratic and best considered classic dictatorships: their leaders are not chosen by the electorate. However, they are wealthy \u201chigh-income\u201d countries, according to World Bank classification.<\/span><\/p>\n

A third group of autocracies includes traditional dictatorships, based on brutal repression but lacking natural resources. These regimes are not seen as attractive alternatives to democracy: a regime like North Korea\u2019s may instill fear, but no one would wish to live as an ordinary North Korean.<\/span><\/p>\n

The irresistible rise of manipulative dictatorships<\/b><\/h3>\n

A fourth group of modern autocracies includes \u201cmanipulative dictatorships.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This model, pioneered in Singapore by Lee Kuan Yew, has spread to other countries in recent years. Manipulative regimes lack ideology and do not use mass repression. Instead, they pretend to be democracies, adopting democratic constitutions, holding regular elections, seating opposition parties in parliament, and maintaining independent media. Unlike traditional dictatorships, these regimes seek to integrate into the global economy, joining international organizations and attempting to exploit them for their own benefit.<\/span><\/p>\n

But make no mistake: these are not true democracies. Elections do not threaten those in power; independent media face various pressures to limit citizens\u2019 access to objective information, and opposition faces targeted repression, which is officially never politically motivated. These regimes deny censoring the media, so most citizens remain unaware that they live in an unfree country.<\/span><\/p>\n

Manipulative regimes are popular because they avoid overt repression and are not based on fear. When citizens affirm their support for the regime in surveys, they often mean it, not out of fear of being honest.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a recent study, we showed that citizens\u2019 views on the system\u2019s nature and government achievements are distorted by censorship and propaganda, leading them to overestimate the country\u2019s economic performance. This creates a vicious cycle that boosts the regime\u2019s popularity. When manipulative dictatorships censor the media subtly, they create a new reality: leaders become popular, even more so than in democratic countries, where leaders are subject to scrutiny by independent media, civil society, and political opposition.<\/span><\/p>\n

The economic growth challenge<\/b><\/h3>\n

By adopting a pseudo-democratic guise, manipulative regimes adapt better than other dictatorships to a world of open borders and new information technologies, where human capital plays a central role. Today\u2019s growth models require \u201ccreatives\u201d and \u201cknowledge workers\u201d who do not want to forfeit freedoms, especially freedom of movement in a globalized world.<\/span><\/p>\n

Educated citizens, essential for economic growth, are harder to control. Manipulative leaders face a choice: co-opt the educated professional class or intensify repression. If they choose the first option, it\u2019s costly, as it diverts resources from ordinary citizens. The second option further erodes the regime\u2019s popularity, as acts of repression become harder to conceal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Manipulative regimes respond to this challenge in various ways: some democratize, as in Ecuador after Joaquin Correa or Armenia in 2018; others revert to traditional terror-based models, as in Venezuela in 2014 or Russia in 2022; still others maintain the manipulative dictatorship model by gradually reducing political control, as in Singapore.<\/span><\/p>\n

This regime type remains a notable experiment: the fact that most non-democratic regimes mimic democracy today is the best evidence that democracy has indeed won the battle of ideas. In this sense, the evolution of dictatorships in the 21st century aligns with Fukuyama\u2019s \u201cend of history\u201d thesis.<\/span><\/p>\n

Authoritarian populism<\/b><\/h3>\n

If that\u2019s the case, then why are we witnessing a \u201cdemocratic recession\u201d? Why do we see authoritarian tendencies in countries like Hungary, Turkey, or Israel?<\/span><\/p>\n

This may be tied to an internal challenge within democracies: the rise of authoritarian populism within the free world. Various economic and cultural factors help explain the growing support for populists in the 21st century. First, globalization and automation are changing labor markets, and those left behind tend to vote for populist parties. The 2008-2009 global financial crisis and subsequent fiscal austerity measures imposed sacrifices on citizens in many Western countries, leading voters to turn to populist leaders. The spread of broadband and social media has also played a role, providing an ideal platform for spreading the populist message.<\/span><\/p>\n

At first glance, populists are elected by voters and should not pose a threat to democracy. After all, if they fail to deliver on promises, they can simply be voted out in the next election. But this view is naive. On average, populists deliver worse economic outcomes than democratic leaders (as Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch discuss in this issue). After taking power, GDP growth drops by about one percentage point per year. This is unsurprising, as populists dislike experts and reject checks and balances, which are crucial for economic growth. This makes it hard to keep campaign promises, and to avoid losing the next election, populists interfere with institutions, especially the judiciary and media freedom, gradually shifting the country from democracy to autocracy, typically adopting the manipulative dictatorship model.<\/span><\/p>\n

The rise of authoritarian populism may thus pose a real threat to liberal democracy. However, even populists do not challenge Fukuyama\u2019s conclusion. First, they too pretend to be democratic. Second, these regimes do not reverse the democratization process; they merely pause it temporarily. Moreover, from an economic perspective, they fail to deliver the prosperity that democracies provide. And democracies that achieve strong economic results are particularly stable.<\/span><\/p>\n

In other words, although the 21st century has introduced many challengers to the democratic model, there are still reasons for optimism: these challengers are either unconvincing or pretend to be democracies, implicitly acknowledging the superiority of the democratic model.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some argue that we are in the midst of a \u201cdemocratic recession\u201d: dictatorships and autocracies are on the rise globally. Manipulative regimes are especially insidious […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[215],"class_list":["post-5520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhen dictatorship masquerades as democracy - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/when-dictatorship-masquerades-as-democracy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When dictatorship masquerades as democracy - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Some argue that we are in the midst of a \u201cdemocratic recession\u201d: dictatorships and autocracies are on the rise globally. 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