{"id":5528,"date":"2024-12-10T12:14:24","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5528"},"modified":"2024-12-10T12:14:24","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:14:24","slug":"cutting-services-fuels-populism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/cutting-services-fuels-populism\/","title":{"rendered":"Cutting Services Fuels Populism"},"content":{"rendered":"

Healthcare, education, transportation, public housing\u2014these are the areas on which citizens judge the effectiveness of their governments. During the pandemic, nearly all of these sectors declined or faced interruptions. More than anti-immigration sentiments, the success of right-wing populist parties stems from public distrust in the functionality of public services. Rebuilding the social contract will not be easy.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

2024 is an exceptional election year, with elections taking place in over fifty countries\u2014from Taiwan to the United States, from France to Indonesia\u2014involving nearly half of the world\u2019s population. The outcomes will have massive consequences for the economy, climate, and international relations on a global scale.<\/span><\/p>\n

Widespread Social Discontent<\/b><\/h3>\n

In each country, voting is, of course, influenced by specific national issues. Yet, collectively, these elections provide a unique opportunity to understand global trends and offer an indication of the health of democracy worldwide. One phenomenon seems to be emerging everywhere: widespread social discontent often directed against the ruling elite.<\/span><\/p>\n

In South Africa, voters ended the long reign of the African National Congress. In a country plagued by poverty, unemployment, and deep-seated corruption, the ANC lost the parliamentary majority it had held since the end of apartheid. Similarly, in the United Kingdom, the Conservative Party suffered a historic defeat after fourteen years in power.<\/span><\/p>\n

Social discontent and dissatisfaction with political leaders are nothing new. But today, there is something more at stake. Polls by the Pew Research Center show that in many of the countries with elections in 2024, the number of voters deeply dissatisfied with the direction their country is taking has risen. In various affluent democracies, including European countries like France, the Netherlands, and the UK, dissatisfaction with how democracy functions has surged in recent years. Notably, public distrust in government has grown around issues such as the cost of living and climate change. This trend is concerning from a democratic perspective. As early as 1999, German political scientist Fritz Scharpf emphasized that the legitimacy of a democratic system depends not only on citizen participation through elections, referendums, or other means but also on the perception that politics delivers concrete benefits. In other words, democracy is not just government \u201cby the people\u201d but also government \u201cfor the people.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In Europe, it is particularly right-wing populist parties that have managed to capitalize on growing social discontent. It is often assumed that these parties owe their success to immigration concerns. However, discontent is high in other parts of the world where immigration is not a major political issue. Right-wing populism also gains traction from rising inequality, status loss among certain population groups, urban-rural divides, and the effects of globalization.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why Now?<\/b><\/h3>\n

But why has public discontent and right-wing populism surged so significantly in recent years? In other words, why now? COVID-19 appears to have been a crucial turning point. The pandemic played a dual role in fueling social discontent. Firstly, social media usage soared during the pandemic and has not decreased since. This rise may be attributed to remote work and online schooling: as people spent more time online, they increasingly turned to social media for news. However, as research by political scientist Sergei Guriev and other scholars has shown, online platforms tend to amplify negative news about politics and society, which not only heightened dissatisfaction with politics but also eroded support for incumbent governments, bolstering support for right-wing populist parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

A second reason why the pandemic may have contributed to rising political discontent is that citizens directly experienced how public services, particularly healthcare, function in their countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Broken Social Contract<\/b><\/h3>\n

Public services are essential to a country\u2019s functioning and crucial for citizens\u2019 quality of life. During the pandemic, healthcare, education, and other services came under immense pressure. Experiences like long hospital waits or school closures left a lasting impact. My research, conducted primarily in Italy and the UK, shows that the ongoing weakening of public services is a significant driver of social discontent. Long healthcare wait times, a shortage of teachers, or malfunctioning public transportation are the measures by which citizens judge their government\u2019s performance and assess how politicians and bureaucrats manage public resources. After all, public services are a central pillar of the social contract between citizens and their representatives in European countries: citizens agree to pay taxes and obey laws in exchange for a benevolent government that provides public safety, infrastructure, education, and healthcare, ensuring a certain level of quality in these services.<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem is that many European countries struggle to maintain widespread access to and quality of public services, partly due to rising costs, including those related to an aging population, and generally low economic growth. When citizens perceive that the state can no longer adequately meet their needs, resentment arises, which populist politicians are ready to exploit.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the austerity measures linked to the European debt crisis fueled electoral successes for left-wing populist parties, especially in Southern Europe, with fierce criticisms of the financial sector, in recent years it is right-wing populism that has gained ground among the European electorate. When citizens distance themselves from traditional parties due to a perceived broken social contract, populist parties attack the \u201ccorrupt political elite\u201d and claim to defend the people.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Europe, another factor comes into play: right-wing populist parties fuel the mistaken perception among many citizens that immigrants excessively use public services. Anti-immigration rhetoric creates a scapegoating dynamic: \u201cthey\u201d (immigrants) are taking scarce services away from \u201cus\u201d (natives). On the contrary, economic research shows that immigrants make a positive contribution to the economy, pay taxes, and contribute to public services.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Reform Party Example<\/b><\/h3>\n

In the UK\u2019s July 2024 elections, public services were a central issue. In this case, the far-right Reform Party benefitted, achieving strong electoral results, though the UK\u2019s first-past-the-post system prevented these from translating into seats. The Labour Party won two-thirds of the seats in parliament with only a third of the vote. It was Labour\u2019s first major victory since Tony Blair in 1997. Back then, Blair had favorable economic winds, whereas today\u2019s situation is very different. Labour\u2019s success stems more from widespread dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak\u2019s Conservative Party, particularly regarding long wait times in healthcare and the overall condition of the National Health Service (NHS). Labour leader Keir Starmer has promised major changes, but the challenge for the NHS is daunting: restoring public trust in the system will be a long, costly process as the country faces slow growth, labor shortages, and weak public finances.<\/span><\/p>\n

In recent research with colleagues at Bocconi University and the London School of Economics, I analyzed the political implications of the NHS crisis. We found that clinic closures increased dissatisfaction with the healthcare service and boosted support for the Reform Party. Its founder, Nigel Farage, capitalizes on widespread frustration over the NHS\u2019s dysfunction and, like many right-wing populist leaders in Europe, blames immigrants for long wait times and declining care quality. He often frames access to all public services as a battle between \u201cimmigrants\u201d and \u201cBritons.\u201d Addressing the NHS\u2019s urgent problems will be crucial in curbing the rise of right-wing populism in the UK. Unfortunately, however, there are no quick or easy solutions for substantial improvements to public healthcare.<\/span><\/p>\n

Immigration Is Not the Only Issue<\/b><\/h3>\n

More generally, faced with rising public discontent and limited policy leeway, governing parties attempt to shift public attention from socioeconomic issues\u2014like cuts to public services\u2014to socio-cultural issues, such as national identity or immigration. This tactic is especially common among center-right parties. They believe that leveraging anti-immigration sentiment can stem the rise of right-wing populism. But voters tend to prefer the original (anti-immigration right) to a diluted copy (center-right). Moreover, immigration is not the only concern; citizens also value a government\u2019s ability to deliver tangible results. Reducing rising social discontent to mere anti-immigration sentiments only reinforces the populist right\u2019s scapegoating strategy, allowing them to perpetuate it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, a better approach would be to understand the root causes of rising social discontent. Unless traditional parties can convince voters that their actions serve the public good and do more than just fight immigration, right-wing populism will gain votes by tapping into widespread dissatisfaction. The only option is to address the problem at its source, seeking to restore citizens\u2019 trust in public services, from healthcare to transportation, from schools to government offices.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Healthcare, education, transportation, public housing\u2014these are the areas on which citizens judge the effectiveness of their governments. 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