{"id":5543,"date":"2024-12-10T12:13:45","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5543"},"modified":"2024-12-10T12:13:45","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:13:45","slug":"when-voters-are-more-conservative-than-the-elected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/when-voters-are-more-conservative-than-the-elected\/","title":{"rendered":"When Voters Are More Conservative Than the Elected"},"content":{"rendered":"

In Europe, there is an increasing gap between voters and elected officials. This divide is not as evident on economic issues, where opinions are relatively similar. However, on cultural issues, the differences are clear, with parliamentarians consistently adopting more liberal positions than their constituents. This gap in representation is where populists find their success.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The rapid growth of populist parties across Europe is a historically exceptional phenomenon; rarely do political groups gain support so quickly across an entire continent. Currently, the most successful populist parties stand out for their strong inclination toward \u201cculturally right-wing\u201d positions, particularly on immigration.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this article, I focus on how traditional parties can change their behavior to regain voters who have shifted to populists. Such a shift in strategy seems essential, as previous efforts have shown limited results. I will not delve into the root causes of populism, like economic crises, as addressing those is far more complex.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cultural Issues as Divisive Factors<\/b><\/h3>\n

If voters make decisions based on party positions on important issues, they will support those that best represent their views on what they consider crucial topics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Voters have a general, albeit often vague, understanding of party positions and compare their own opinions to these perceived stances, ultimately choosing the party that aligns most closely with their preferences. While no one is perfectly rational, and various factors influence voting decisions, research shows that alignment between citizens’ and parties’ stances plays a more significant role in voting choices than factors like a leader’s charisma or internal party conflicts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Viewed from this perspective, the rise of populism has a straightforward explanation: populists fill certain gaps in political representation. What are these \u201cgaps\u201d? A large body of research indicates that, in recent decades, the decision-making processes of parties, parliaments, and governments have consistently drifted away from voters\u2019 preferences \u2014 not so much on economic decisions, which often reflect citizens\u2019 ideas, but on cultural issues, where parties have been significantly more liberal than voters would prefer.<\/span><\/p>\n

In my work, \u201cPolitical Representation Gaps and Populism,\u201d I document this \u201ccultural representation deficit\u201d across Europe. The study compares responses from about 1,800 parliamentarians and 80,000 representative citizens from 26 European countries. Both groups answered the same questions, allowing for a direct comparison. For example, we asked how much they agreed or disagreed with statements on reducing immigration or increasing income redistribution.<\/span><\/p>\n

While citizens\u2019 and parliamentarians\u2019 views on economic measures are similar, the study shows that, on cultural issues, parliamentarians consistently adopt far more liberal positions than their voters. This discrepancy emerges across nearly all cultural topics: immigration, migrant assimilation, criminal punishment, and gender relations. Across Europe, for instance, a large majority of citizens support a significant reduction in immigration, while most parliamentarians oppose this stance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Likewise, in most European countries, all traditional parties advocate for more liberal cultural policies than the average voter prefers. This is true even for Christian Democratic and conservative parties. Research by John Denham titled \u201cMind the Values Gap\u201d shows that the average British voter is much more supportive of strict punishment for criminals than the average Conservative MP. In fact, the average voter might even support introducing the death penalty, while both Conservative and Labour MPs firmly oppose it. This is not a uniquely British phenomenon; it is found across much of Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n

For many voters, therefore, all traditional parties are perceived as too liberal on cultural issues. This does not mean that all traditional parties propose identical policies or that all voters have the same opinions. For instance, Christian Democratic parties are more conservative than liberal parties, and rural residents tend to be more conservative than urban dwellers. However, the gap between the average voter and the average party is much more pronounced than the differences in opinions among voters or party platforms. In practice, whether a voter is a city resident or rural dweller, young or old, male or female, native or immigrant, college-educated or not, they are generally more culturally conservative than the average parliamentarian in their country. The gap between the political views of the average European voter and those of the average parliamentarian is as significant as the difference between a Christian Democratic or conservative parliamentarian and a socialist or communist one.<\/span><\/p>\n

The result is a strong demand from citizens for conservative policies that traditional parties fail to meet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Misinformation or Differences in Values?<\/b><\/h3>\n

To understand if addressing these representation gaps aligns with citizens’ interests, it is essential to determine whether these gaps stem from differences in values or from misinformation. My study shows that political decision-makers are much more liberal than citizens, even when comparing people with similar demographic characteristics and education levels. Even highly informed voters are generally more opposed to immigration and multiculturalism than parliamentarians.<\/span><\/p>\n

Representation gaps have provided new populist parties with a significant opportunity to attract socially conservative voters. Right-wing populist parties like Giorgia Meloni\u2019s Brothers of Italy are particularly close to the average Italian voter on cultural issues. Germany\u2019s AfD and France\u2019s Rassemblement National bridge the cultural divide between voters and traditional parties by adopting positions that are generally more conservative than those of the average voter.<\/span><\/p>\n

Left-wing populist parties, on the other hand, fail to close this cultural representation gap, which may explain why only right-wing populists are currently gaining ground in Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Has Changed?<\/b><\/h3>\n

The cultural representation gap has existed for a long time in many European countries. Recent research shows that neither citizens’ opinions nor party stances have changed significantly. So why is right-wing populism growing now? A recent study suggests that right-wing populists are gaining support because citizens are increasingly focused on cultural issues, especially immigration.<\/span><\/p>\n

But why do citizens now place more importance on cultural issues? There may be two explanations. First, media or populists themselves may have spotlighted these issues using rhetoric and misinformation. Second, cultural issues may have naturally gained prominence, for instance, due to increasing immigration. Both factors likely play a role, but their relative weight remains uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why Combating Fake News Isn\u2019t Enough<\/b><\/h3>\n

There is a widespread belief among traditional European politicians that populists skillfully manipulate voter opinions through misinformation. The Global Risks Report 2024, presented at the 54th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, describes misinformation as one of the most severe short-term risks, even more concerning than climate change, armed conflicts, and economic uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

This perspective suggests that, for many politicians, misinformation is a key driver of populist voting. Under this logic, voters would not support populist parties if they had complete and rational information. Advocates of this theory often blame social media or Russian interference as the primary sources of misinformation. They argue that, without these influences, populists would receive far fewer votes. Consequently, they view informational campaigns, fact-checking, and efforts to combat fake news as essential tools for fighting populism, without needing to alter political decision-making processes.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, scientific studies challenge the centrality of misinformation in driving populist votes. Some research indicates that fake news, like that spread during the 2016 U.S. elections, did not significantly influence voter choices. Similarly, fact-checking campaigns do not seem to reduce support for populists; in some cases, they may even increase it.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is therefore likely that the primary cause of traditional parties\u2019 lack of political representation lies in the value differences between citizens and politicians. This suggests that if traditional parties want to win back voters, they will need to address cultural issues directly, rather than relying solely on information campaigns or fact-checking.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In Europe, there is an increasing gap between voters and elected officials. 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