{"id":5545,"date":"2024-12-10T12:13:27","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:13:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5545"},"modified":"2024-12-10T12:13:27","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T11:13:27","slug":"what-not-to-do-to-counter-populists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/10\/what-not-to-do-to-counter-populists\/","title":{"rendered":"What Not to Do to Counter Populists"},"content":{"rendered":"

The difficulty traditional parties face in countering the rise of populist movements is undeniable. This may create a temptation to adopt the same tools and language as populist leaders. But in the long run, this would be a mistake, as demonstrated by a \u201ccounter\u201d campaign during the 2020 constitutional referendum on reducing the number of deputies and senators.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

For over a decade, populism has been at the center of global political discourse. Populist politicians \u2014 depending on who is observing \u2014 are feared, admired, praised, or vilified. No one can ignore them. Numerous studies have examined the causes and consequences of this phenomenon in Western democracies. Yet one question remains unanswered: why do traditional parties struggle to counter populism? Why can\u2019t they regain the trust of voters? And why don\u2019t they try adopting some populist tactics, which resonate so effectively with marginalized voters?<\/span><\/p>\n

Populist Governments Do Not Self-Destruct<\/b><\/h3>\n

An old perspective \u2014 that of economists who studied South American populism in the late 1980s and early 1990s \u2014 suggests that populism could self-destruct. By adopting misguided economic policies, populist parties lay the groundwork for their own political downfall, as voters will eventually abandon them when economic conditions deteriorate. However, voters may judge populist parties by different criteria than those used for traditional parties. Populists often make simple, easily verifiable promises to their potential voters. Unlike traditional parties, they don\u2019t seek a broader mandate but instead focus on narrow, specific promises. As a result, voters may judge them primarily on whether they keep these specific promises rather than on the overall results of their governance. And even if those promises aren\u2019t fulfilled, it doesn\u2019t mean voters will return to traditional parties; they may instead choose to abstain or turn to new populist alternatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, what can traditional parties do to counter populists? This isn\u2019t a question of values \u2014 populism can play a positive role in our democracies by giving a voice to some marginalized segments of the electorate. However, understanding the competitive tension between traditional and populist parties is essential to grasp the trajectory of our democracies.<\/span><\/p>\n

A \u201cCounter\u201d Campaign Against Populists<\/b><\/h3>\n

Let\u2019s start with strategies that don\u2019t work. Grand coalitions of traditional parties are ineffective; they may even strengthen the populists\u2019 claim of being \u201cdifferent\u201d and increase their electoral success. Accommodation \u2014 where traditional political groups try to absorb anti-immigration or anti-establishment positions \u2014 also fails, as the original always prevails over the imitation.<\/span><\/p>\n

This leaves the question of whether traditional parties can adopt populists\u2019 tactics without adopting their issues. Given that \u201canti-politics\u201d campaigns are a key component of populist success, traditional parties might try using negative campaigns \u201cagainst\u201d populists, portraying them as a new, opportunistic, and corrupt establishment.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a study (\u201cThe Populist Dynamic: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Countering Populism,\u201d CEPR discussion paper no. 18826), we assessed the effectiveness of such a negative campaign. The opportunity came with the 2020 constitutional referendum on reducing the number of parliamentarians: through a field experiment, we analyzed the short- and long-term effects of an anti-populist campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 2020 Experiment<\/b><\/h3>\n

The 2020 referendum asked voters to confirm a constitutional reform that would reduce the number of parliamentarians, cutting the Chamber of Deputies from 630 to 400 seats and the Senate from 315 to 200. Early polls suggested a sweeping victory for the \u201cyes\u201d vote, with an expected outcome of 90% in favor and 10% against. In September 2020, the \u201cyes\u201d vote won with 70% support and a 51% turnout. Our experiment was conducted in collaboration with the national committee \u201cDemocrats for No,\u201d launched by members of the Democratic Party opposed to the reduction, even though their party eventually supported the \u201cyes\u201d position.<\/span><\/p>\n

The committee created two videos for an \u201canti-populist\u201d campaign targeting the two political forces that championed the cut: the Five Star Movement and the League. Using programmatic advertising \u2014 those video ads encountered on various websites before content is viewed \u2014 the committee reached almost a million Italian voters in 200 small towns selected for inclusion in the experiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

The two videos were identical in length (30 seconds) and graphics but differed in tone and message. The first video, randomly assigned to half of the selected towns, aimed to debunk populist claims about savings from reducing parliamentarians and highlighted the reform\u2019s side effects (\u201cthey lied to you\u201d). The second video, assigned to the other half of the sample, directly attacked populist politicians as opportunistic and hypocritical, branding them as \u201cthe new elite.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Based on the analysis of municipal-level election results, our study shows that both videos influenced voting behavior in the same direction: they increased abstention and reduced the \u201cyes\u201d vote share. The more aggressive second video was slightly more effective in capturing attention and produced stronger effects.<\/span><\/p>\n

The committee\u2019s goal was to boost the \u201cno\u201d vote, so the experiment\u2019s results indicate that using populist-style \u201cagainst\u201d tactics can yield immediate benefits for traditional politicians. The effects were more significant in municipalities with lower levels of education and employment, areas where populist voting had been higher in the past. In other words, in areas where marginalized voters were already disillusioned with politics and less likely to vote, demobilization seems to be an effective strategy to counter the electoral success of populist parties and their proposals.<\/span><\/p>\n

Medium-Term Effects: What Happened in 2022<\/b><\/h3>\n

The anti-populist campaign had unexpected medium-term consequences. An analysis of the 2022 legislative election results shows that the towns included in the experiment saw an increase in votes for Brothers of Italy, accompanied by a decline in support for traditional parties like the Democratic Party, as well as the two populist parties targeted in the campaign, Five Star Movement and the League. A survey conducted in 2023 in the same towns also found further significant changes: residents showed increased interest in politics, but also less trust in political institutions and stronger anti-political sentiments. These were captured, for example, by responses to questions about whether it makes sense to sanction the offense of insulting the President of the Republic.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the end, countering populism with negative \u201cagainst\u201d tactics, rather than benefiting traditional parties, appears to have supported another rising populist group, which gained traction after years of solitary opposition. Clearly, these effects can\u2019t be directly attributed to the 2020 experimental campaign, given the two-year gap. However, the campaign acted as an external shock that influenced voting behavior in the referendum, weakening some voters\u2019 attachment to the two more established populist options. This disillusionment persisted over time, through classic mechanisms of political opinion diffusion and persistence, opening up space for the electoral success of a new populist option, Brothers of Italy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Our study\u2019s findings caution against the long-term efficacy of purely negative campaigns \u201cagainst\u201d populist parties. For traditional politicians, the temptation to respond tit-for-tat to populists\u2019 attacks (\u201cyou demonize me, I demonize you\u201d) may be strong, but it should be resisted. Fighting populism with \u201cagainst\u201d campaigns risks further eroding voters\u2019 trust in politics and institutions. Traditional parties need forward-thinking strategies aimed at restoring credibility and gaining support. They must employ tools of re-intermediation and inclusion to bridge the gap between the electorate and the elected, which has widened across the board in recent decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

We know this is not easy. Politics faces a structural crisis. The end of the Cold War and the breakdown of intermediary organizations that bolstered traditional parties \u2014 unions, weakened by globalization, and parishes, impacted by secularization \u2014 have increased voter volatility and party system instability. National sovereignty has been eroded. Local services have retreated under the weight of welfare\u2019s fiscal crisis. Politics has lost credibility.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nonetheless, we must attempt to rebuild a positive narrative. The alternative strategy of combating populist demonization with the fire of delegitimizing populists risks permanently burning the delicate fabric of our democracies.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The difficulty traditional parties face in countering the rise of populist movements is undeniable. 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