{"id":6454,"date":"2025-01-31T08:12:50","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T07:12:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=6454"},"modified":"2025-01-31T08:12:50","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T07:12:50","slug":"the-new-records-of-global-public-debt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/01\/31\/the-new-records-of-global-public-debt\/","title":{"rendered":"The New Records of Global Public Debt"},"content":{"rendered":"

By the end of the decade, global public debt will reach 100% of global GDP. While current projections already paint a concerning picture, actual figures could turn out to be even higher. This is because many factors contributing to debt may worsen in the coming years. Thus, the time to act is now, resolving a fiscal \u201ctrilemma\u201d that challenges both advanced economies and low-income countries.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

By the end of 2024, global public debt will reach approximately $100 trillion, equivalent to 93% of global GDP. Without intervention, it will approach 100% of global GDP by the end of the decade (see figure below).<\/p>\n

The increase in debt over recent years is mainly attributable to the two largest economies, the United States and China. For other countries, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilize due to adopted policies but will remain well above pre-pandemic projections, with a gap reaching approximately 16 percentage points of GDP by the decade\u2019s end.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 2001\u20132029 (as a Percentage of GDP)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: Dashed lines represent the 2018 projections. The 2024 projection is based on the October 2024 edition of the World Economic Outlook, while the 2018 projection is based on the October 2018 edition. Source: World Economic Outlook; IMF staff calculations.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Euro Area follows a similar trajectory to the rest of the world. The overall public debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize by the end of the decade but at a level 24 percentage points higher than the pre-pandemic forecast.<\/p>\n

This general picture masks significant differences among Euro Area countries. In many, such as Germany, Ireland, and Spain, public debt is expected to decline. In others, including France, Italy, and the Netherlands, it is now projected to increase, contrary to previous expectations of stabilization or even reduction.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Public Debt-to-GDP Ratios, 2001\u20132029 (as a Percentage of GDP)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: Dashed lines represent the 2018 projections. The 2024 projection is based on the October 2024 edition of the World Economic Outlook, while the 2018 projection is based on the October 2018 edition. Source: World Economic Outlook; IMF staff calculations.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Global Public Debt: A Risk<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If these numbers already seem enormous, it is plausible that global public debt could end up even higher than projected.<\/p>\n

The IMF\u2019s autumn 2024 Fiscal Monitor introduces a new conceptual framework called \u201cdebt-at-risk.\u201d This framework illustrates how changes in economic, financial, and political conditions can shift the distribution of future debt-to-GDP ratios, highlighting associated risks. The analysis aims to help governments quantify debt risks and calibrate precautionary measures promptly. According to this framework, global public debt could exceed the IMF\u2019s baseline projections by about 20 percentage points of GDP in an extremely adverse scenario within three years. In a very favorable scenario, it could be 15 percentage points lower.<\/p>\n

For the Euro Area, public debt could be 18 percentage points of GDP higher in the worst-case scenario or 13 points lower in the best-case scenario. In short, debt risks are growing.<\/p>\n

Why might debt be significantly higher than projections? Key determinants of public debt, such as the gap between expenditures and revenues or the difference between interest rates and GDP growth rates, might deviate from expectations.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Higher-than-expected expenditures: Many advanced and emerging economies will face substantial spending requirements linked to population aging, climate change, and rising national security risks. Not all of these are fully reflected in baseline projections. Moreover, there is a growing push across political parties to increase public spending. For example, in advanced economies, the share of electoral manifestos supporting expansive fiscal policies rose nearly 60% in 2000\u20132020 compared to the 1980s and 1990s.<\/li>\n
  2. Less favorable interest rate-GDP growth differentials: Over the past two decades, interest rates on government bonds have generally been lower than GDP growth rates, mitigating the rise in debt-to-GDP ratios in many countries. However, interest rates have risen significantly over the past two years, and their future trajectory is now more uncertain. Increasingly, global rather than domestic factors influence fluctuations in government borrowing costs.<\/li>\n
  3. Systematic underestimation of debt projections: The IMF\u2019s Fiscal Monitor shows that actual debt-to-GDP ratios calculated three years later are, on average, six percentage points higher than projections. One key factor is the \u201cstock-flow adjustment\u201d\u2014the discrepancy between changes in the debt-to-GDP ratio and components attributable to fiscal deficits, surpluses, or interest-growth differentials. Over the past two decades, stock-flow adjustments accounted for 2% of GDP in advanced economies and 4% in emerging and developing economies over a three-year horizon. Contributing factors include materialization of contingent liabilities, arrears, and off-budget expenditures for state-owned enterprises, which often occur during banking crises.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Governments thus face a seemingly insurmountable \u201cfiscal trilemma.\u201d They must address pressures to increase public spending, contend with strong public resistance to raising taxes, and still reduce deficits and debt to ensure sustainability and safeguard financial stability.<\/p>\n

    The fiscal trilemma is especially acute in low-income countries, which must increase spending to provide adequate public services and achieve sustainable development goals. Meanwhile, over the past two years, many of these countries have experienced rising protests against tax increases, declining trust in governments, and weakened revenue-generation efforts. Low-income countries face a particularly challenging situation due to elevated debt sustainability risks following the pandemic shock, high global interest rates, a strong dollar, and modest global growth prospects.<\/p>\n

    Can Fiscal Policy Help?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Resolving the fiscal trilemma is challenging but not impossible. The starting point is a strategic shift toward gradual yet sustained fiscal adjustment. As the global economy approaches a soft landing from inflation and central banks reduce interest rates, now is the right time to initiate fiscal consolidation. Delaying necessary actions will only make adjustments more burdensome. As outlined in the IMF\u2019s Fiscal Monitor, fiscal consolidations should be carefully designed to protect growth and ensure fairness, maintaining public support. Well-designed structural fiscal policies can contribute to sustainable and inclusive growth, making the trilemma less daunting. Additionally, enhancing good governance and fiscal transparency helps make fiscal reforms more understandable and acceptable to the public.<\/p>\n

    The trilemma is a test. It does not have to become a trap.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Vitor Gaspar is the Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, where he has worked since 2014. He served as Portugal\u2019s Minister of Finance from 2011 to 2013 and held various roles in European and Portuguese institutions.<\/em><\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/em>Ali Abbas is a Deputy Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, overseeing sovereign debt and governance workflows, as well as reviewing IMF programs in emerging and developing economies with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa.<\/em><\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/em>Misa Takebe is an Assistant Director in the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, where she has led technical teams on general SDR allocation issues and capital flows. She has worked on several IMF programs and sovereign debt reduction.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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