{"id":6491,"date":"2025-01-31T08:12:38","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T07:12:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=6491"},"modified":"2025-01-31T08:12:38","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T07:12:38","slug":"excessive-discipline-has-halted-germany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/01\/31\/excessive-discipline-has-halted-germany\/","title":{"rendered":"Excessive Discipline Has Halted Germany"},"content":{"rendered":"

Germany\u2019s obsession with the debt brake has plunged the country into a severe crisis. This policy prevented public investments aimed at improving productivity, such as infrastructure and research. Additionally, relying on Russian gas, German industry specialized in energy-intensive sectors. Exiting this situation is not simple. Perhaps a new Martin Luther is needed to dispel the cult of balanced budgets.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We live in difficult times. War and destruction have returned to Europe; the European peace of the last three-quarters of a century seems over. \u201cGreat power diplomacy\u201d has resurfaced, challenging the European Union\u2019s diplomatic efforts. Economic integration on the continent has stalled. Long-established trade models are suddenly threatened by new players in international commerce. Authoritarian leaders promise simple solutions to problems that democracies take too long to resolve. Climate change is a harsh reality, threatening future living standards in ways we can barely imagine. There is no alternative to reducing CO2 emissions, but meanwhile, we must divert ever more resources to address severe and increasingly frequent natural disasters, as seen in the Ahr Valley, Emilia Romagna, Ard\u00e8che, and most recently, Valencia. Investments for the future are necessary: in the green transition, defense, border protection, and reinforcing infrastructure against extreme weather events. If Europe continues to ignore these challenges, there will be dire consequences for future generations.<\/p>\n

The Shock That Shattered the German Economy<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Germany is no exception; in fact, it exemplifies the new European reality. Instead of recognizing and addressing these challenges, the country procrastinated, exacerbating the consequences of past poor decisions. German industry, cushioned by decades of cheap and reliable natural gas from Russia, specialized in energy-intensive sectors\u2014chemicals, metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, and automobile manufacturing, to name a few. When Russian gas stopped flowing, the economy suffered a shock comparable to the oil price hikes of the 1970s. Although natural gas prices have fallen from their peak, Germany remains at a disadvantage compared to competitors due to its reliance on the world\u2019s most expensive electricity and imported liquefied natural gas. The much-celebrated German economy has not grown since 2019, while the United States and the rest of Europe have rebounded strongly from the pandemic. Today, Italy\u2019s real GDP is 5% above its 2019 level; the U.S.\u2019s is up by 11%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Price of Energy in Germany Compared to the U.S., 1995-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The figure uses 100 to indicate price parity between Germany and the U.S. Source: FRED \u2013 Federal Reserve Economic Data (Producer Price Index for Energy).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

The \u201cSwabian Housewife\u201d Model<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What accounts for Germany\u2019s economic malaise? Primarily, it stems from a singular loss of competitiveness, as shown in the data. This problem has been compounded by a uniquely German interpretation of fiscal discipline, which neither rewards private enterprise investments nor invests in public goods to improve productivity. Following reunification, vast areas of public capital were privatized\u2014not only in East Germany but across the country. Public investments were choked, resulting in the evident degradation and obsolescence of the country\u2019s infrastructure. Idle rail lines, dilapidated stations and bridges, crumbling highways, schools, and hospitals testify to insufficient public spending on the common good. Public administration resists digitization, leaving Germany far from the \u201cChampions League\u201d of global modernity. A century ago, German universities were at the forefront of global intellectual progress; today, they struggle to compete with world-class academic and research institutions.<\/p>\n

At the heart of Germany\u2019s inability to adapt to the new European reality lies a peculiar reluctance to spend money, honoring the proverbial \u201cfrugality of the Swabian housewife.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Obsession with the Debt Brake<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Schwarze Null, also known as the \u201cdebt brake,\u201d is a balanced budget policy pursued by former Finance Minister Wolfgang Sch\u00e4uble and Chancellor Angela Merkel in response to fiscal profligacy in peripheral Eurozone countries after monetary union. At that time, lower real interest rates reduced debt service burdens, and interest rate convergence freed governments from market discipline. After the sovereign debt crisis, Germans sought to set an example. However, much has changed since 2003.<\/p>\n

Following a constitutional amendment enshrining the balanced budget as a tool to \u201crein in debt,\u201d Germany enforced strict discipline, recording uninterrupted budget surpluses from 2013 to 2019. It reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio from 82% in 2011 to less than 60% in 2019. While these results are impressive, they came at a significant cost: public investment fell to 2.5% of GDP in recent years, compared to 3.8% in France, 2.8% in Italy, 3.3% in the U.S., and 3.2% across OECD countries. For many years, Germany\u2019s gross public investments have not even covered the depreciation of its vast public capital.<\/p>\n

Reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio as a matter of faith is even more painful and irrational during periods of zero growth, as growth generates tax revenues that can reduce debt. Budget cuts can exacerbate economic recessions by lowering aggregate demand. For all these reasons, the Schwarze Null belongs in the graveyard of voodoo economics. The obsession with balanced budgets, without considering the nature of deficit-funded spending, defies economic rationality. Technically, Germany\u2019s debt brake allows a deficit of 0.35% of GDP and larger deficits in times of national emergency. A growing economy can sustain increasing debt stock as long as tax revenues grow in parallel. Sudden price level increases, unanticipated by nominal interest rates, like those recently observed, can lead to significant one-off reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio\u2014a phenomenon seen across Europe, not just in Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal.<\/p>\n

However, an economy cannot grow without the infrastructure necessary to produce what the world will demand tomorrow. The Schwarze Null has exacted a toll on the well-being of future German generations, who have little or no voice in today\u2019s decisions. Tomorrow\u2019s youth will bear the real consequences of today\u2019s insufficient infrastructure investment.<\/p>\n

Indispensable Investments<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Germany has shown that, when it truly wants to, it can circumvent the debt brake. In response to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Berlin displayed unusual flexibility, creating an emergency fund financed with 100 billion euros of debt for new defense spending. The same rationale should be applied to fund overhauls of highways, railways, airports, general infrastructure, and cybersecurity. For instance, a power line could be financed to transport excess electricity from the windy north to areas in need in the south. Germany faces structural changes like no other OECD country and, since World War II, has never needed investments to adapt to new times as much as it does now. It has become over-specialized in energy-intensive industries while eliminating energy sources like nuclear, coal, and oil-powered electricity generation without ensuring adequate alternatives. Bad news from ThyssenKrupp, Volkswagen, Bosch, ZF, Ford, and other industrial giants confirms that structural changes are already underway. According to the German Statistical Office, production levels in energy-intensive sectors are currently 20% below 2022 levels, and the overall industrial decline is 10%. Meanwhile, the global recovery after Covid-19 has been and remains robust. Under these dire circumstances, clinging to the sacred debt brake is simply irrational. The private sector needs a stimulus in the form of investment tax credits or corporate tax cuts.<\/p>\n

Awaiting a New Luther<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Perhaps there is still hope that Germans will abandon the cult of the debt brake and return to reason. Signs of change are emerging: CDU leader and potential future Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced that, under certain conditions, he would consider relaxing public debt limits. This recalls a German infotainment television show that hosted a live discussion on the debt brake, featuring 100 randomly selected citizens. After hearing various arguments, participants physically voted by positioning themselves in a studio space divided between support for and opposition to the debt brake. Following a debate analyzing the pros and cons\u2014infrastructure deterioration, national defense, digitalization, climate change, and the costly energy transition versus government waste, possible loss of the AAA rating, and debt burdens for future generations\u2014the final result saw 82 of the 100 participants favor loosening the debt brake.<\/p>\n

Like any cult, the debt brake has elements of irrationality that cannot be explained by the high priests of orthodox liberal politics. In the name of our children\u2019s future, Germany needs a new Martin Luther to nail his theses to the door of the Ordnungs\u00f6konomik church. The obsession with the debt brake must end.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Michael Burda is Professor of Economics at Humboldt University of Berlin and researcher at CEPR, IZA, and CES Munich. He has also taught at INSEAD and works on issues related to macroeconomics, labor economics, and European integration.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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