{"id":6502,"date":"2025-01-31T08:12:28","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T07:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=6502"},"modified":"2025-01-31T08:12:28","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T07:12:28","slug":"the-vacant-pnrr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/01\/31\/the-vacant-pnrr\/","title":{"rendered":"The Vacant PNRR"},"content":{"rendered":"

Information on the progress of PNRR projects is increasingly scarce. Three and a half years after the plan’s launch, there is still no updated and comprehensive database of all initiated projects. We have not planned evaluations for the interventions being implemented. Moreover, the information we managed to gather about the nursery school and museum digitization plans is far from encouraging. Meanwhile, there is no longer a dedicated minister for the plan, as he has moved to Brussels.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We still have two years to implement the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). Yet, instead of having more clarity about the actual implementation of planned interventions, uncertainty about the plan\u2019s progress remains dominant. According to the Parliamentary Budget Office (in its medium-term structural budget plan hearing on October 7, 2024), \u201cInformation on the subject has gradually decreased in official documents.\u201d The Regis platform, created to monitor work progress, \u201ccontinues to present critical issues due to inconsistent information and persistent delays in registering individual operations.\u201d This is happening even as \u201cthe recent PNRR revisions have only been partially reflected on the platform.\u201d It is worth noting that these revisions were requested by our government in July 2023, over a year and a half ago. Alarmingly, the implementing decrees for defunding decisions made back then have, in many cases, not yet been issued. Additionally, there are 54 billion euros (equivalent to 3% of GDP or a quarter of the PNRR) worth of interventions without any reporting, including measures funded but not recorded in the database and funding amounts greater than what is listed in Regis.<\/p>\n

Challenges in Oversight<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Three and a half years after the plan\u2019s launch, we still lack an updated, complete, and easily accessible database of all projects. This hinders oversight not only by Parliament and the public but also by organizations responsible for monitoring public spending, starting with the Court of Auditors, which has repeatedly stated that it lacks sufficient data for effective scrutiny. In this information void, the PNRR has been sidelined not only from the political agenda but also from public discourse. It is no longer a topic of discussion. This allows the government to decide which information to share\u2014often misleading and sometimes even substantially false, albeit formally correct. For instance, the Fifth Report on PNRR implementation, released on July 22, 2024, claims, \u201ca strengthened monitoring mechanism has been implemented to ensure the achievement of PNRR objectives\u2026on the Regis platform, including detailed payment status, completed within the 30 days required by the March 2, 2024, decree law.\u201d However, as previously highlighted, 54 billion euros of the 194 billion euro plan are completely unaccounted for.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the coordination unit established at Palazzo Chigi has lost its minister, Raffaele Fitto, who has become a European Commissioner. Tommaso Foti, his replacement, faces the daunting task of managing the final stages of the PNRR. Hopefully, he will rise to the challenge. It is good that this responsibility has been entrusted to a minister because the expenditures planned in 2021 will inevitably require further changes, mid-course adjustments for unforeseen events, and regulatory changes. Italy has already enacted four PNRR revisions (the latest on November 12, 2024), and more substantial changes are likely.<\/p>\n

Persistent Delays<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Despite the triumphant tone of government reports on the plan\u2019s implementation, which present Italy as \u201ca virtuous example in the European landscape,\u201d delays in execution are increasingly evident.<\/p>\n

As noted by the National Anti-Corruption Authority (ANAC), which collects data on public procurement, \u201c60% of initiated procedures remain incomplete (98,033 out of 162,480 over the past two years), while the economic value of unawarded contracts represents 45% of the total initiated (35.5 billion out of 79.2).\u201d This is happening despite a sharp increase in direct awards in recent years (68% in 2024 compared to 10% in 2015). Regarding PNRR construction progress, Sauro Mocetti of the Bank of Italy documented significant delays in most projects based on data from construction industry funds. According to the ECB (Occasional Paper, December 2), completed works account for less than 5% of the funds allocated for public works under the plan, and among ongoing projects, two-thirds face significant delay risks.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s not just public contracts that are lagging. As of October 2, according to Regis, 53.5 billion euros of the PNRR had been spent, nearly half of which (27.3 billion euros) went to the Superbonus and another 13.4 billion to various tax credits. In other words, most of the spending thus far consists of automatic transfers to households (transfers that predominantly take from the poor and give to the rich, as documented by Luciano Capone and Carlo Stagnaro in this issue of eco<\/em>) and businesses.<\/p>\n

Within the measures for social inclusion, active labor policy interventions accounted for 43 million euros in spending, compared to a planned 2.4 billion.<\/p>\n

The figure below (related to the 140 billion euros tracked in Regis) shows that delays affect all missions, particularly environmental transition (M2), social inclusion (M5), and digitalization (M1). Projects still in their initial stages are highly unlikely to be completed within the PNRR\u2019s timeframe.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Progress of PNRR Missions<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Authors’ elaborations on Regis data.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

How the Money is Spent<\/strong><\/h3>\n

More important than the rate of spending is the manner in which PNRR funds are utilized. It is worth noting that these funds are not gifts: 123 billion of the 194 billion are loans that must be repaid, adding to our national debt.<\/p>\n

The information about the quality of implemented interventions is even more scarce than the data on expenditures. Despite the massive funding allocated to universities, the projects do not include plans for database collections or analyses that would enable timely evaluation of the results achieved through various interventions.<\/p>\n

Two examples of interventions where we have managed to gather information are far from encouraging. These pertain to the nursery school plan and the platform for Italian museums.<\/p>\n

The Nursery School Plan<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In the original PNRR, the nursery school plan aimed to create 265,000 new places by the end of 2025, encompassing nurseries (for children aged 0-3) and preschools (for children aged 3-6). This was a noble objective, given the dire need for such services, especially in southern regions, and the role nurseries play in fostering social mobility and inclusion for disadvantaged families.<\/p>\n

All procurement processes were to be completed by mid-2023. In the July 2023 revisions, these objectives were scaled back and delayed, with a larger share of funds shifted to the national budget instead of the PNRR, as the Commission required the creation of genuinely additional places. The new target is 150,000 places by mid-2026. However, progress has been negligible. According to Regis, as of November 2024, only 40 million euros out of the planned 3 billion had been spent, creating approximately 2,000 places, primarily in preschools, compared to the 150,000 target. Many projects remain unaccounted for.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the government has sought to change fund allocation criteria. Initially, local municipalities were to propose interventions based on a national call. However, these procedures clashed with a lack of willingness to invest in nurseries, particularly where they are most needed\u2014in southern Italy. As a result, the Meloni government centralized allocation criteria in April 2024, creating a ranking of municipalities based on nursery needs. Yet even these centralized procedures have not successfully provided nurseries where they are most needed. Consequently, the structural budget plan presented in September postponed the interventions to the end of 2027 (beyond the PNRR deadline) and further reduced coverage objectives for southern regions.<\/p>\n

The core issue has not been addressed across successive governments: southern municipalities fear they will lack resources to cover operational costs (especially teacher salaries) once the nurseries are operational. These costs are substantial, amounting to around half a billion euros for all municipalities. Instead of tackling the operational funding problem, the PNRR funds were spent where they were least needed. Spending the money took precedence over spending it well.<\/p>\n

The Platform for Italian Museums<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Another example involves the mission on digitization. In September 2022, the Ministry of Culture was allocated 300 million euros in PNRR funds to improve access to Italian museums. About a tenth of the funds (32 million euros) was earmarked for the creation of the “Ad Arte” digital platform. The idea, initiated in 2014 by then-Minister Franceschini, was to build a national platform for booking visits to all Italian public museums, a sort of national ticketing system.<\/p>\n

The allocated amount far exceeds any plausible estimate for building websites and managing visitor flows: even the largest museums do not spend more than 100,000 euros on such services from private providers. The website (www.museiitaliani.it, note the double \u201ci\u201d) offers limited functionality compared to major Italian museum websites, is far from accessible for people with disabilities, is only bilingual, and allows payments only through the PagoPA system, creating significant difficulties for foreign visitors. Before spending all this money, it would have been worth questioning whether it was realistic to develop an app centralizing online ticketing for all Italian museums (about 5,000), considering their diverse structures and needs, and whether it could outperform existing private sector solutions.<\/p>\n

A Deafening Silence<\/strong><\/h3>\n

With the PNRR, Italy has essentially taken out a mortgage, assuming it could repay the debt with returns on the investments funded in this way. However, it seems to have lost control of spending. The delays are significant, but more critically, the money is being spent poorly\u2014a responsibility shared by all governments involved, from the plan\u2019s design in 2020 to the final program approval in 2021 and its implementation thereafter. It\u2019s as if we bought a house to leave it empty or acquired land only to build poorly and neglect its upkeep. Thus, it\u2019s unsurprising that the miraculous GDP growth rates initially forecasted as tied to the plan\u2019s implementation have not materialized; they were entirely unrealistic to begin with. What\u2019s surprising, however, is the deafening silence surrounding these concluding phases of the PNRR.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tito Boeri is a Professor of Economics and Director of the Economics Department at Bocconi University. He is also the Editorial Director of eco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Roberto Perotti is a Professor of Economics at Bocconi University.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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