{"id":6932,"date":"2025-02-10T16:00:34","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T15:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=6932"},"modified":"2025-02-10T16:00:34","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T15:00:34","slug":"the-real-numbers-of-immigration-in-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/02\/10\/the-real-numbers-of-immigration-in-the-united-states\/","title":{"rendered":"The (Real) Numbers of Immigration in the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"

Immigration in the U.S. is out of control: a simple message unconditionally echoed by many media outlets, helping Donald Trump win the presidential election. The problem is that the numbers tell a completely different story: for years, highly skilled individuals have been arriving in the U.S., significantly contributing to the country\u2019s economic and technological growth. How can we afford to lose this resource, especially as the population ages?<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Donald Trump and the Republican Party won the November 2024 U.S. presidential election largely by promoting a relentless message\u2014amplified by many media outlets\u2014claiming that immigration was out of control due to the Democratic administration\u2019s lenient policies toward migrants from all origins.<\/p>\n

Immigration and Trump\u2019s Parallel Reality<\/strong><\/h3>\n

According to the narrative painted by this propaganda, thousands of undocumented, unskilled, poor, and possibly criminal migrants are chaotically entering the U.S. through the Mexican border. These individuals are portrayed as stealing jobs from low-income Americans and swelling the ranks of criminals. This message was reinforced by images showing massive numbers of immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border\u2014real events from a few months between 2022 and 2023, but presented as the norm. Naturally, blame was placed on the Democratic government. Trump\u2019s propaganda claimed that, between 2021 and 2023, 8 million immigrants entered the U.S., half of them illegally. How this number was derived is unclear.<\/p>\n

According to estimates based on U.S. Census Bureau data, even after recent upward revisions, the net number of immigrants entering the U.S. in 2021-2023 was at most 3.7 million, about 1.7 million of whom entered under humanitarian permits (not illegally). Nonetheless, Trump\u2019s campaign succeeded in altering public perception. According to Gallup Poll data, in 2021, only 30% of Americans believed immigration levels were too high and action was needed to curb them. By 2024, that percentage had risen to 55%.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Trump\u2019s campaign convinced many Americans that various problems in the U.S. economy over recent decades were due to immigration. From the stagnation of middle-class wages (in reality, median wages grew significantly between 2020 and 2024) to the decline of some small local communities (which typically attract few immigrants), and even crime (which has decreased significantly since the 1990s and remained stable over the past 4-5 years): everything was linked to immigration.<\/p>\n

While scholars of political propaganda and populism will eventually explain how Trump and his media machinery successfully crafted this narrative, as an economist, I aim to present the reality reflected in the numbers, which diverges sharply from public perceptions\u2014even among Democrats\u2014regarding the facts and economic consequences of immigration.<\/p>\n

A Growing U.S. Economy<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Public misconceptions extend beyond immigration to another critical area: the U.S. economy\u2019s performance in the post-COVID period. Inflation peaked at around 7-8% in 2021 but declined significantly to 2.7% by 2024, following trends in the Eurozone and the UK. All other economic indicators were positive: the unemployment rate quickly fell to around 3.7% post-COVID and remained there through 2024. GDP grew at a robust annual rate, reaching 2.8% in 2024. Nominal wages\u2014workers\u2019 earnings before accounting for inflation\u2014increased by 3.8% in 2023-2024. The labor market created millions of jobs, surpassing the number of unemployed individuals since 2020. Many international observers consider the U.S. one of the best-performing advanced economies over the past three to four years, with enviable results compared to European countries.<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s return to immigration. Over the past 24 years, immigration has been a significant factor in the U.S.\u2019s economic success. From an economist\u2019s perspective, if immigration continues with the characteristics of recent decades, increasing it would be beneficial, rather than reducing or expelling immigrants, as proposed in Trump\u2019s deportation program.<\/p>\n

The Role of Immigration in Labor Force Growth<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The figure below illustrates the growth (in millions per year) of the U.S. working-age population in four-year intervals from 2000 to 2023, separated by individuals with and without college degrees. It also distinguishes between U.S.-born individuals (purple) and immigrants (green).<\/p>\n

The first panel shows that the net growth of immigrants with college degrees (accounting for emigration) has been significant and accelerating since at least 2005, bringing 200,000 to 400,000 college graduates to the U.S. each year. Numerous studies demonstrate how these highly educated immigrants have significantly contributed to U.S. businesses, research, science, and technology, fueling growth over recent decades.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the second panel shows that immigration of lower-skilled workers declined and stalled (net of emigration) before 2020. Only in 2020-2023 did the number of non-college-educated immigrants increase, some entering on temporary or humanitarian visas from Central America, Venezuela, Haiti, and Ukraine. Census data revisions suggest an even larger increase, close to one million per year in 2021-2023. The panel also highlights changes in the U.S. workforce, particularly among those without college degrees employed in manual and mid-to-low wage jobs: this group has been shrinking due to population aging. Baby Boomers are retiring, and the working-age population has been decreasing by 800,000 annually since 2015.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Growth of the U.S. Working-Age Population, 2000-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: Population aged 18 to 65 years, includes immigrants in all states, including undocumented individuals. Source: US Census Bureau and American Community Survey (ACS); author\u2019s calculations.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Over the same period, the U.S. economy continued to grow, labor demand increased, and many jobs remained unfilled. Newly arrived immigrants were quickly absorbed into the workforce, contributing to post-COVID growth without depressing wages. In fact, in many sectors, they provided essential labor, enabling more efficient market operations and helping to contain price increases in industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality. The labor demand surplus has been particularly acute in jobs not requiring a college degree, which have seen the most significant workforce decline. The figure below shows the annual average number of job vacancies in the U.S. economy overall (left panel) and in the construction and hospitality-tourism sectors (right panel), which heavily rely on non-college-educated workers. The increase in vacancies has been substantial, particularly since 2015, and continued post-COVID.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Job Vacancies in the U.S. Economy, 2000-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

How Immigrants Support Expansion<\/strong><\/h3>\n

For twenty years, economic research has highlighted immigration\u2019s positive influence on U.S. economic growth and per capita income. Authoritative estimates indicate that a 1% increase in immigration relative to the population raises per capita income by 0.8-1% over the long term. Recent studies show that, during periods of labor shortages, immigrants foster the creation of new businesses and the growth of existing ones, benefiting native workers as well. Furthermore, data reveals that even less-educated immigrants quickly find employment in the U.S.; within five to ten years of arrival, they are employed at higher rates than natives, contributing to economic growth almost immediately.<\/p>\n

Another crucial aspect is that immigrants\u2019 contributions will become increasingly important in mitigating population decline and aging. Like other wealthy nations, the U.S. has experienced a significant drop in birth rates in recent decades, leading to an aging population. Immigrants, typically younger and with higher fertility rates than natives, help balance the ratio of workers to retirees and maintain a younger labor force. Ironically, the rural and small-town communities most swayed by Trump\u2019s anti-immigration rhetoric have received the fewest immigrants (as a share of their population) and are now in economic decline partly for this reason. Paradoxically, these areas would benefit the most from immigration for economic revitalization. Examples abound of towns revitalized by new migrants and refugees, as seen in Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A sudden influx of migrants, particularly low-skilled ones, can create short-term challenges for schools, hospitals, and public services at the local level. However, in the medium and long term, immigrants contribute positively to general fiscal health and the communities they integrate into, revitalizing many areas. Unfortunately, the persistent focus on their costs has fueled public fears.<\/p>\n

The Republican Party\u2014and more broadly, media emphasizing chaos at the Mexican border\u2014have convinced over half of Americans that there are too many immigrants and that their arrival harms U.S. workers. In reality, the U.S. economy has greatly benefited from their arrival. Many are skilled workers, and their numbers are easily absorbed into the labor market. In the past decade, even less-educated immigrant workers have significantly boosted U.S. economic growth.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Giovanni Peri is the C. Bryan Cameron Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis, and the founder and director of the Global Migration Center at UC Davis.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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