{"id":6967,"date":"2025-02-10T15:59:45","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T14:59:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=6967"},"modified":"2025-02-10T15:59:45","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T14:59:45","slug":"the-vicious-circle-of-xenophobia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/02\/10\/the-vicious-circle-of-xenophobia\/","title":{"rendered":"The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia"},"content":{"rendered":"

The rise in migration flows has been accompanied by the electoral success of populism, now governing in several countries worldwide, including Europe. This has created a vicious circle of xenophobia, with right-wing populist parties enacting anti-immigrant policies and highly skilled migrants, essential for development, avoiding settling in countries under their rule. Breaking out of such a situation will not be easy.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Right-wing populism is gaining unprecedented ground in Europe and worldwide. How can we determine if a party is populist? Political scientists generally use two criteria. The first is whether the political group in question is strongly “anti-establishment” in rhetoric and program, with a narrative emphasizing the contrast between the purity of the people and the corruption of elites. The second criterion is the party\u2019s professed commitment to protecting the people from various internal and external threats. This is where right- and left-wing populists diverge, with the former emphasizing the dangers of external threats, such as immigration.<\/p>\n

Indeed, from the 1960s to today, immigration has increased in the European Union and the United States: the foreign-born share of the population has risen from 3.7% to 12.5% in the EU and from 5.4% to 13.1% in the U.S. It is unsurprising that the issue has become increasingly central.<\/p>\n

The Rise, Fall, and Rebound of Populism<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Populism is currently particularly strong in various parts of the world, but it has openly or subtly marked European and other countries’ histories since at least the post-war period. In our recent work, Populism and the Skill-content of Globalization<\/em>, we aim to propose new ways to analyze and measure populism. Our primary data source is the Manifesto Project, which provides information on political programs and election results for all political parties, including elected parliamentarians, across a wide range of countries since the 1960s. We applied machine learning techniques to assign a “populist score” to each political party in the database and\u2014based on this\u2014defined a threshold above which a party can be classified as populist. We also identified a country’s “average populism index,” defined as the aforementioned populist score weighted by votes received. Additionally, like other studies, we measured populism based on the share of votes obtained by parties classified as populist.<\/p>\n

Our analysis reveals that populism in Europe has fluctuated since the 1960s, often peaking during severe economic crises, such as the oil crisis in the late 1970s or the post-2008 Great Recession. Today, populism\u2014regardless of how it is measured\u2014has reached its peak in Europe. Its rise cannot be attributed solely to the growth of radical right-wing parties in Eastern Europe; similar trends are evident in EU-15 countries. What differentiates today’s surge from past instances is the spread of populist ideas within traditional parties. Nevertheless, populist parties are now in power in 25% of countries\u2014a record level over the past thirty years.<\/p>\n

The Importance of Quality in Goods and People<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What explains populism’s current success? Our analysis points to the effects of globalization.<\/p>\n

Globalization has opened many countries to the importation of high- and low-quality goods and the arrival of foreign workers with varying skill levels.<\/p>\n

The import of high-quality goods, produced by highly skilled labor, as well as the arrival of highly skilled immigrants, reduces support for right-wing populist parties. Conversely, support increases with the import of low-value products and the immigration of low-skilled individuals.<\/p>\n

In other words, according to our study, immigration’s influence on populism depends not only on numbers but also on the quality of those arriving: an increase in low-skilled migrants tends to fuel right-wing populism, while an increase in highly skilled migrants reduces it.<\/p>\n

Right-Wing Populism Drives Away Skilled Migrants<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Naturally, the relationship between immigration and populism is not one-way. Countries with strong populist parties tend to implement policies that discourage migrant arrivals. They do so directly, through laws and entry barriers. Indirectly, they repel potential migrants via the anti-immigration policies and attitudes associated with populism. This is particularly true for highly skilled migrants, who have more opportunities to leave their home countries and a broader choice of destinations. In other words, right-wing populism tends to discourage immigration, especially that of highly skilled workers.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t just a theoretical hypothesis. It is confirmed by studies on individual states, such as Switzerland, Germany, or Italy, and comparative international research.<\/p>\n

Switzerland offers a striking example. The controversial “Minaret” referendum in 2009 asked Swiss voters to decide on a possible ban on building minarets. Michaela Slotwinski and Alois Stutzer demonstrated that, in municipalities where the vote was strongly and unexpectedly anti-minaret, there was a months-long decline in migration flows. Surprisingly, it was not Muslim migrants avoiding these municipalities but highly skilled Europeans from neighboring countries like France, Italy, Germany, and Austria, who chose more liberal and welcoming destinations.<\/p>\n

The repelling effect of right-wing populism also extends to internal migration. Evidence comes from Italy. According to a study by Luca Bellodi, Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Docquier, Stefano Iandolo, Massimo Morelli, and Riccardo Turati, municipalities with populist mayors become less attractive to highly educated workers, while those already residing in such municipalities are more likely to leave. This phenomenon isn\u2019t limited to Italy; it holds internationally. In a comparative study, Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Docquier and Chrysovalantis Vasilakis estimated that a 10-percentage-point increase in the vote share of right-wing populist parties reduces the inflow of highly skilled migrants to a country by 27%, while the inflow of low-skilled migrants decreases by only 17%.<\/p>\n

The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia<\/strong><\/h3>\n

With right-wing populism, we face a vicious circle: highly skilled migrants avoid countries where populism is strongest, leading to a decline in the average skill level of immigrants in these states. This strengthens the populist narrative that immigration harms the economy and social fabric of the host country. Thus, we confront a \u201cvicious circle of xenophobia,\u201d where populist reactions to immigration reduce the quality of incoming migrants, exacerbating cultural polarization and further entrenching populist sentiment.<\/p>\n

Various shocks\u2014economic, demographic, or political\u2014can destabilize the situation even further. For example, corruption scandals, economic crises, or terrorist attacks can boost populism if a certain level of migrant skill disparity exists. Refugee crises or large waves of irregular migration can similarly increase the number of low-skilled migrants in a given country. Other factors, such as the expansion of the internet or the decline of middle-class economic prospects, may also contribute to these effects.<\/p>\n

The relationship between immigration and right-wing populism is thus a fatal one\u2014a true \u201cvicious circle of xenophobia.\u201d On the one hand, right-wing populism fuels fears about immigration and discourages the arrival of highly skilled migrants essential for economic and social progress. On the other hand, it benefits from the fact that highly skilled immigrants avoid countries where populists are in power, reinforcing their anti-immigration narrative.<\/p>\n

The vicious circle of xenophobia represents a significant challenge for liberal democracies, both politically and economically. Breaking it will require a complex set of policies that enhance the economic and social benefits of immigration while addressing the root causes of populist sentiment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Docquier is Research Program Leader (on Crossing Borders) at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research.<\/em><\/p>\n

Hillel Rapoport is a Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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