{"id":7344,"date":"2025-03-11T16:54:03","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T15:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=7344"},"modified":"2025-03-11T16:57:44","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T15:57:44","slug":"anatomy-of-a-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/03\/11\/anatomy-of-a-trade-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Anatomy of a Trade War"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is it time to say goodbye to open competition, based on multilateral institutions and shared rules? With Trump\u2019s second term, tariffs are back in fashion. The first to suffer should be U.S. citizens, who paid out of their own pockets for the consequences of those imposed in 2018. Because, in words, winning a trade war is easy. It\u2019s much less so when you realize that \u201cenemies\u201d can respond with the same weapons.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00abWar is merely the continuation of politics by other means. War is therefore not merely an act of policy, but a true political instrument, a continuation of political processes by other means\u00bb. These were the words of Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz two centuries ago in his book On War<\/em>, a military strategy treatise. Paraphrasing von Clausewitz, we could say that a trade war is nothing more than the continuation of politics by other means, before it escalates into an actual war.<\/p>\n

The Instruments of Trade Peace<\/strong><\/h3>\n

But how does a trade war work? To understand that, we first need to grasp what trade peace is. It is not a paradisiacal state of absolute freedom where all countries do as they please without stepping on each other\u2019s toes. Instead, it is a highly regulated environment where states adhere to a strict, shared protocol. Acceptable behaviors and prohibited actions are defined in international agreements, which serve as a kind of rulebook under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO).<\/p>\n

The WTO is sometimes described as a \u201cfree trade\u201d institution (even its website defines it this way), but this is not entirely accurate. The underlying agreements allow for tariffs and, in limited circumstances, other forms of protection, if they serve the goal of maintaining a system of rules dedicated to open, fair, and undistorted competition.<\/p>\n

The non-discrimination rules\u2014namely, the Most Favoured Nation clause and the national treatment principle\u2014are designed to ensure fair trading conditions. Specifically, the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clause prevents WTO member countries from discriminating against their trading partners. If a member grants another member particularly favorable treatment (such as a lower tariff rate on its imports), it must do the same for all other members.<\/p>\n

Similarly, the national treatment principle requires member countries to treat imported goods and local products equally once the foreign goods have entered the domestic market. Maintaining open, fair, and undistorted competition is also the aim of rules against dumping\u2014exporting below cost to gain market share\u2014and public subsidies designed to achieve a similar outcome.<\/p>\n

Even though the issues are complex, the rules attempt to establish what is right and wrong. They also specify how governments can respond to unfair trade practices, particularly by imposing additional tariffs calculated to offset the damages caused. However, before doing so, governments must bring the case before the WTO tribunal, which is responsible for resolving disputes and determining any sanctions proportional to the damage caused. In this way, additional tariffs become a tool for maintaining trade peace, as they are foreseen and accepted in agreements signed by various countries within the WTO framework.<\/p>\n

The Instruments of War<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tariffs, however, become a tool of war when a country imposes them unilaterally, outside the WTO dispute resolution process, regardless of the reasons behind their introduction and calculation. When this happens, it constitutes an act of aggression and, in a way, a declaration of trade war.<\/p>\n

The most famous example\u2014at least until the recent tumultuous weeks\u2014is the now-famous “tweet” on Twitter (or today, a “post” on X), in which, on March 2, 2018, then-U.S. President Donald Trump announced the imposition of additional tariffs on imports from China (figure below).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s tweet from March 2, 2018<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

If that tweet represented Trump 1.0 seven years ago, here is Trump 2.0 on January 14, 2025:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s post from January 14, 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The only change between the new Trump and the old Trump is that he now relies on a \u201ctruth\u201d on Truth Social instead of a \u201ctweet\u201d on Twitter. The rest is today\u2019s history.<\/p>\n

If Trump flexes his muscles, Beijing responds<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Both in the old \u201ctweet\u201d and in the new \u201ctruth,\u201d the rhetoric of capital letters and flexed biceps hides a series of conceptual errors. There are two main ones.<\/p>\n

The first is the idea that exporting less than one imports equates to \u201closing money.\u201d From a financial perspective, whether exports exceed imports or vice versa is generally irrelevant. Exports are surplus goods and services that do not find a market domestically and that our trading partners accept in exchange for other goods and services we lack. When exports exceed imports, we extend credit to our foreign customers. In the opposite case, we are borrowing from them. Sometimes the first option is preferable, sometimes the second. As long as debts are settled, exports and imports are equally legitimate.<\/p>\n

The second mistake is thinking that trade wars are easy to win. In reality, it depends not only on one’s own strength but also on that of the opponent. If they are equally strong, the result is a stalemate\u2014like an arm-wrestling match between two equally powerful opponents who strain and sweat without either gaining the upper hand.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s first presidency offers a clear example (figure below). Each time the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing retaliated by increasing its own tariffs on American imports, escalating tensions until the Phase One Agreement armistice was reached on January 15, 2020. The result? Much higher and more widespread tariffs on both sides.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tariff War Between the United States and China<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Percentage of U.S.-China trade subject to tariffs<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

How to Shoot Yourself in the Foot<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What were the effects of the trade war on the U.S. economy? Various studies have been conducted on the subject. Some have found that U.S. tariffs had no impact on employment in the affected sectors, while retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries\u2014especially in agriculture\u2014had a significant effect. Others have found that Washington\u2019s tariffs did not change global prices of the targeted products. As a result, far from being paid by foreign entities, they were instead borne by American citizens.<\/p>\n

In other words, tariffs were generally paid by U.S. households and businesses, with few exceptions, such as the steel industry, where exporters absorbed about half of the additional tariff burden. The combined effect of Trump\u2019s protectionism and retaliation by trade partners led to a significant reduction in both U.S. imports and exports, resulting in a considerable loss of real national income.<\/p>\n

Finally, some studies have shown that the greatest damage to the U.S. economy came from Washington\u2019s own tariffs rather than from those imposed in retaliation by other countries. The proverbial shot in the foot. No one has found any substantial benefits for the United States as a whole.<\/p>\n

Plato Had Already Figured It Out<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In The Republic<\/em>, Book II, Socrates and Glaucon discuss the benefits of labor division and specialization in a city-state according to the citizens’ aptitudes: \u00abEverything is done better, more frequently, and more easily when one practices a single occupation according to one’s inclinations and at the right time, free from other tasks\u00bb. However, for such specialization to be possible, self-isolation is not an option because: \u00abIt is almost impossible to establish a city in such a location that does not require the import of goods\u00bb. For the city to be able to offer something in exchange for foreign goods, \u00abdomestic production must not only meet the needs of the citizens but also satisfy, in quality and quantity, the demands of those from whom they import\u00bb.<\/p>\n

A protectionist closure to foreign trade can only lead to disastrous imperialistic consequences unless the needs of citizens are left unmet: \u00abWe must therefore carve out a portion of the neighboring land if we want enough pasture and arable land, and they must do the same with our territory\u00bb. Socrates: \u00abAnd so we will go to war, Glaucon? Or how will it end?\u00bb. Glaucon: \u00abThat is how it will end\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Millennia later, everything still sounds tragically relevant.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gianmarco Ottaviano is a professor of economics and holds the Achille and Giulia Boroli Chair in European Studies at Bocconi University, where he co-directs the research unit on globalization and industrial dynamics at the Baffi Center.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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