{"id":7381,"date":"2025-03-11T16:52:56","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T15:52:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=7381"},"modified":"2025-03-11T16:58:49","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T15:58:49","slug":"the-european-union-faces-trump-2-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/03\/11\/the-european-union-faces-trump-2-0\/","title":{"rendered":"The European Union Faces Trump 2.0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bilateral trade between Europe and the United States represents one of the most significant economic relationships globally. Faced with the threat of a new wave of tariffs, the EU is called upon to make crucial choices. While the introduction of some bilateral tariffs would have limited effects, it is essential to continue strengthening trade partnerships with Africa and Latin America. A protectionist reaction, on the other hand, would have serious consequences for the growth of the Old Continent.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The economic, political, and cultural ties between Europe and the United States run deep. Bilateral trade across the Atlantic is one of the most significant economic relationships globally.<\/p>\n

The Numbers Behind a Longstanding Special Relationship<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The sum of imports and exports between the two regions exceeds one trillion dollars, far more than trade between Europe and China or between the United States and China. The goods and services exchanged range from technology to the automotive industry, from agribusiness to pharmaceuticals. In other words, EU-U.S. trade is characterized not only by its stability over time but also by the predominance of high value-added exchanges.<\/p>\n

Equally crucial is the complementarity between trade flows and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the transatlantic partnership. The two sides of the Atlantic have invested a total of over $7.5 trillion in each other, with proportions roughly equal. It is estimated that nearly 3.5 million Americans work for European companies in the U.S., while over 2 million Europeans work for U.S. companies in Europe.<\/p>\n

All these figures highlight the importance of EU-U.S. trade for the global economy and for maintaining international economic standards. However, they also point to a challenge: how to preserve the stability of the relationship as emerging economies rapidly expand their commercial influence?<\/p>\n

Over the past ten years, the overall U.S. trade deficit with the EU\u2014which occurs when a country\u2019s imports exceed its exports\u2014has steadily increased, with the trade deficit in goods partially offset by a surplus in services. The following figure shows how EU imports and exports of goods with the United States have followed a parallel trend, steadily increasing, with the sole exception of 2020.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EU-U.S. Trade in Goods, 2014-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Eurostat Data Browser, last updated: January 16, 2025.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Tariff War with the EU During Trump\u2019s First Term<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A key factor in this trade imbalance is the U.S. trade deficit with Germany. When Trump\u2019s first presidency began heavily criticizing Berlin in 2017, the deficit had reached $64.1 billion\u2014nearly two-thirds of the total U.S. trade deficit with the EU.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s administration was particularly harsh on Germany. Other EU countries with significant U.S. trade deficits\u2014such as Italy and France\u2014were largely spared. At the time, Trump was mainly focused on trade in industrial goods, particularly automobiles.<\/p>\n

As trade tensions with China escalated, on June 1, 2018, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports from the EU, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. This law allows the U.S. president to request an investigation by the Department of Commerce into whether specific imports threaten national security. If risks are identified, the president can act to adjust import levels by raising tariffs or imposing quotas, overriding WTO agreements, as the WTO does not have jurisdiction over national security matters.<\/p>\n

Following WTO rules, albeit without formal approval, the EU retaliated with tariffs on specific U.S. products, such as tobacco, orange juice, and motorcycles, worth approximately \u20ac2.8 billion. The U.S. quickly countered by threatening unilateral tariffs on European automobiles and auto parts. Had they been implemented, these tariffs would have severely impacted the European economy, with Germany being the hardest hit. However, entire European supply chains would have suffered indirectly.<\/p>\n

This led to negotiations between the Trump administration and the European Commission, then led by Jean-Claude Juncker. The EU sought to suspend the threatened automotive tariffs, while the U.S. aimed to gain easier access to the European market for agricultural products such as beef, poultry, dairy, and soybeans. The immediate result was a suspension of the trade dispute, facilitated by the EU\u2019s agreement to increase imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a goodwill gesture.<\/p>\n

Trade tensions, however, quickly flared up again in the second half of 2019. The trigger, in this case, was the resurgence of the long-standing dispute between the United States and the EU over illegal subsidies to aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing. A series of WTO rulings during those months allowed the U.S. to impose tariffs on European goods worth $7.5 billion, primarily affecting imports from France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The EU responded with tariffs on U.S. goods worth $4 billion.<\/p>\n

U.S.-EU trade relations only stabilized in June 2021, under President Biden, when these tariffs were suspended (while tariffs on China remained in place).<\/p>\n

New Tariffs? No Need to Panic<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What will happen now that Donald Trump has been re-elected president, and geopolitical tensions have further intensified?<\/p>\n

On the tariff front, the first executive measures of Trump’s second presidency appear to be assertive but not as aggressive as initially expected. During the election campaign, “The Donald” had promised an immediate 60% tariff on imports of all goods from China and a 25% tariff on the rest of U.S. imports, regardless of their origin. At present, the U.S. administration has announced and then suspended 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and has imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, mainly as retaliatory measures against fentanyl imports into the United States.<\/p>\n

Regarding other countries, Trump has issued a memorandum on U.S. trade policy, instructing the government to assess any existing discriminatory measures against U.S. exports and to analyze the reasons behind the U.S. trade deficit, with the aim of defining possible corrections through trade policy tools. It is certainly possible that a tariff could also be applied to the European Union, but this would likely lead to negotiations between the EU and the U.S. over its implementation.<\/p>\n

However, even if the U.S. Department of Commerce’s analysis were to conclude with the introduction of some bilateral tariffs, the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates indicate that these would likely have limited consequences.<\/p>\n

Trade tensions between China and the United States have persisted for nearly a decade, and while trade between the two major blocs has decreased, particularly after Russia\u2019s aggression in Ukraine, the overall increase in global trade barriers has remained relatively minor.<\/p>\n

These forecasts align with various analyses that assessed the pre-pandemic trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU. For example, tariffs on the automotive sector may have reduced total EU exports to the United States by 8% in the long run, causing a loss of just 0.1% of the EU\u2019s GDP. Meanwhile, the effects of steel and aluminum tariffs have been minimal, reducing EU GDP by only 0.01%.<\/p>\n

The limited impact of tariffs is largely due to the emergence of \u201cconnector countries\u201d\u2014such as Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, and others\u2014which import, particularly from China, and export to the United States. Effectively, these countries serve as redistributors of global trade flows.<\/p>\n

In summary, IMF data suggest that these nations have helped mitigate the negative effects that U.S.-China trade tensions could have had on global commerce.<\/p>\n

With the introduction of bilateral tariffs, it is certainly possible that direct trade between major blocs could gradually decrease, but the trade passing through connector countries is unlikely to experience significant changes.<\/p>\n

The Fate of Global Value Chains<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In this new configuration of international trade, statistics show that globalization\u2014measured as the total value of exports relative to GDP\u2014has indeed stopped growing in recent years, but it is not in decline (see also Lucia Tajoli\u2019s article in this issue, editor\u2019s note<\/em>). In fact, if we exclude China from the calculation, global trade as a share of GDP continues to grow.<\/p>\n

Thus, the global value chains built over the past thirty years appear to be holding up, despite everything.<\/p>\n

Their resilience is confirmed by a study conducted by the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University, in which Giorgio Presidente and I analyze disruptions in supply chains caused by hurricanes affecting China\u2019s major ports.<\/p>\n

To understand their significance, consider that Chinese ports handle 13% of global exports and 27% of global imports; Shanghai and Ningbo alone account for 56% of China\u2019s imports and 67% of its exports.<\/p>\n

Our data indicate that the effects of a hurricane-induced closure of a Chinese port are absorbed within a couple of weeks. When functioning properly, global value chains can diversify sourcing and production, minimizing delays and financial losses.<\/p>\n

The further decoupling between the U.S. and China, which we will almost certainly witness during Trump\u2019s second term, could therefore lead the United States to create alternative trade partnerships.<\/p>\n

At the same time, it could also push China to strengthen its own trade networks, particularly with Asian and African countries, as part of a diversification strategy, without causing disruptive effects on global trade.<\/p>\n

An Inevitable Path for Europe<\/strong><\/h3>\n

When it comes to Europe, the only viable strategy is to continue strengthening trade partnerships with non-EU countries, particularly in Africa and Latin America. This serves a dual purpose: shielding European trade from U.S.-China tensions and ensuring a stable supply of critical raw materials essential for European production.<\/p>\n

A first step in this direction has been taken with the EU\u2019s Global Gateway Initiative\u2014an infrastructure investment program (covering digital, energy, and transport sectors) totaling \u20ac300 billion for the period 2021-2027. However, this is merely a starting point from which a more comprehensive and ambitious long-term program should be developed\u2014one that could serve as a more transparent and democratic European alternative to China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n

This is a particularly ambitious goal and likely requires a further shift in Europe’s approach. However, there is no doubt that initiatives like the Global Gateway are essential if we consider the challenges that Europe would otherwise face in trade with the African market, where China currently holds a dominant position as a privileged partner.<\/p>\n

For the same reasons, rejecting the Mercosur agreement, the South American common market, would be a grave strategic mistake. With free access to Latin American markets, the EU can further expand and diversify its supplier network, mitigating the risks posed by U.S. protectionism and securing privileged access to critical raw materials, which Latin America is rich in.<\/p>\n

If the price to pay is compensating a few thousand European farmers who fear competition from (more efficient) Latin American markets in certain basic agricultural commodities, we should find a way to do so through the EU budget, rather than risking the EU\u2019s strategic independence (on this point, see contributions by Pietro Galeone, J. Christopher Proctor, and Romain Svartzman, editor\u2019s note<\/em>).<\/p>\n

On the other hand, in today\u2019s global context, a European protectionist response, promoting (unrealistic) self-sufficiency measures, would have serious consequences for economic growth in the Old Continent.<\/p>\n

This is a critical moment for Europe, requiring crucial decisions that will shape its future.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Carlo Altomonte is a professor of European Integration Economics at Bocconi University and a board member of the Institute of European Policymaking.<\/em><\/p>\n

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