{"id":7389,"date":"2025-03-11T16:50:30","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T15:50:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=7389"},"modified":"2025-03-11T17:06:16","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T16:06:16","slug":"the-global-south-faces-the-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/03\/11\/the-global-south-faces-the-trade-war\/","title":{"rendered":"The Global South Faces the Trade War"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cAmerica First\u201d resonates once again with Trump\u2019s return to the White House and the intensification of the trade war with China. The consequences are felt everywhere, but especially in the countries of the Global South. With some surprises: the tariffs introduced in 2018 did not merely change the geography of export destinations and exporting countries. For some, but not all, they have offered opportunities for development.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump launched a protectionist campaign in an attempt to bring back some manufacturing activities and related jobs to the United States. Since the mid-1980s, these jobs had progressively moved to countries with lower labor costs, especially the People’s Republic of China\u2014often simply referred to as China, though this risks confusion with the Republic of China, or Taiwan, an independent country, at least for now.<\/p>\n

Under the slogan \u201cAmerica First,\u201d Trump imposed new tariffs on 818 Chinese-imported goods, totaling $34 billion in revenue. Beijing retaliated by imposing a 25% tariff on U.S. imports, amounting to exactly the same total: $34 billion. This marked the beginning of a trade war between the two global giants\u2014a war that was never ended by the Biden administration and that Trump, in his second presidential term, has now announced he intends to escalate (as also discussed by Simon Evenett in this issue). Just a few days ago, new 10% tariffs were introduced on Chinese imports, prompting swift retaliation from China: a package of measures targeting U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas with 15% tariffs, plus an additional 10% tariff on oil, agricultural equipment, and certain automobiles.<\/p>\n

The Origins of the Conflict<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A trade war is an economic conflict stemming from the imposition of tariffs (taxes on imported goods and services) or other trade barriers by a country, either for economic nationalism reasons or as retaliation against trade barriers established by the opposing side (see also Gianmarco Ottaviano\u2019s article in this issue). In the case of Trump\u2019s trade war, the tariffs were imposed to counter what was perceived as unfair Chinese competition, as Chinese companies receive substantial government subsidies. The objective was twofold: on one hand, to encourage importers to source from non-Chinese foreign firms, thereby reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China (which occurs when a country\u2019s imports exceed its exports); on the other hand, to raise the cost of imported goods for American consumers, thus paving the way for the return of domestic production that had previously been abandoned due to higher U.S. production costs.<\/p>\n

For its part, Beijing is no stranger to industry-supporting practices. Since the late 1970s, it has employed them to build price competitiveness, allowing China to gain dominant market shares in many sectors. According to analyses by the Centre d\u2019Etudes Prospectives et d\u2019Informations Internationales (Cepii) in Paris, China holds a dominant position (i.e., over 50% of global exports) in nearly 600 out of approximately 5,000 products. This is at least six times more than the equivalent number for the U.S., Japan, or any other country, and double that of the European Union as a whole. Contrary to common belief, and unlike in the early 2000s, Chinese products today are no longer cheaper than those from other countries. Chinese companies leverage their market power to impose high markups, even more than French exporters. Consequently, Chinese exports no longer deflate global prices (i.e., reduce the average cost of goods), but rather contribute to inflation (i.e., increase average prices). This situation will persist as long as China maintains its dominant positions in many sectors, effectively shielding itself from competition.<\/p>\n

Risks and Opportunities<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The economies of the United States and China are the largest in the world, and inevitably, the tariffs imposed by both nations have significantly impacted global trade dynamics and key players.<\/p>\n

On one hand, to mitigate geopolitical risks, many U.S. companies have moved production back within national borders, while China has started reducing imports from the U.S. (and to some extent, from Europe) by replacing them with domestic production, striving for greater self-sufficiency. This has threatened the position of the Global South (a group of developing and emerging countries) within global value chains, particularly in nations with manufacturing industries limited to assembling imported intermediate goods without local production capacity. Before the U.S.-China trade war began, these countries had strengthened their positions in global value chains, producing more than 47% of global manufacturing exports in 2016.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the tariff war has also created opportunities, particularly for Southeast and South Asian countries. To protect their supply chains, an increasing number of companies reconsidered their investments in China and diversified towards the Global South. This led to the rise of the “China Plus One” strategy\u2014producing in at least one other country besides China.<\/p>\n

India, for example, has benefited, with many U.S. and European subsidiaries relocating there, particularly in consumer electronics and automotive sectors. This has resulted in greater job opportunities for young people, strong industrial innovation, and faster economic growth, thereby improving living standards.<\/p>\n

China, once dubbed the \u201cworld\u2019s factory,\u201d has seen its influence in global supply chains wane in recent years. Beyond the trade war, rising labor costs in China since the early 2000s have driven Western companies to establish production facilities in Vietnam and Indonesia.<\/p>\n

A study by UNCTAD\u2014the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development\u2014indicates that several countries have capitalized on U.S.-China tensions, as their exports replaced Chinese exports to the U.S. or American exports to China. These countries include Mexico, Brazil, India, the Philippines, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Malaysia.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Emerging countries that have benefited from the U.S.-China tariffs<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: UNCTAD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Winners and Losers<\/strong><\/h3>\n

However, the same UNCTAD study highlights another aspect: an increase in exports does not always translate into wholly positive economic outcomes.<\/p>\n

Take the soybean market, for example. Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans have reshaped trade flows, benefiting several exporting countries. Brazil, in particular, has become China\u2019s leading soybean supplier. However, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs\u2019 duration has made Brazilian producers hesitant to invest in what could become unprofitable ventures should tariffs be lifted. Meanwhile, Brazilian businesses reliant on soy\u2014such as livestock feed producers\u2014face competitiveness losses due to rising costs fueled by China\u2019s demand.<\/p>\n

In short, while some countries have seen export surges, overall, the negative effects of the trade war likely outweigh the positives. The global economy remains fragile, and trade disputes exacerbate uncertainties. Economic recessions often bring price fluctuations in commodities, financial markets, and currencies, significantly impacting developing countries. There is also a risk of trade tensions escalating into currency wars, complicating repayment of U.S. dollar-denominated public debt.<\/p>\n

A World Bank group of economists estimated that the U.S.-China trade war has affected approximately $450 billion in bilateral trade and marked a turning point in globalization.<\/p>\n

While some countries have gained, others have suffered. Analyzing the exports of the 48 largest exporters to three destinations\u2014U.S., China, and the rest of the world\u2014reveals surprising effects on third countries. Many nations increased exports to the U.S., but surprisingly, exports to the rest of the world also grew, while exports to China remained stable. This suggests that global trade opportunities have expanded rather than merely shifting destinations.<\/p>\n

However, the impact varies: some countries have replaced Chinese exports, while others complement them. Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, and Mexico are the main \u201cwinners\u201d in markets where U.S.-China trade declined.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, other nations\u2014such as Ukraine, Egypt, Israel, and Colombia\u2014have seen exports decline. This explains why the Global South is less aligned with China, with many countries now imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, including Turkey and Indonesia.<\/p>\n

Given that participation in international production has driven growth for many developing countries, the uncertainty surrounding global trade relations under Trump\u2019s second term signals challenging times ahead, especially for the poorest nations.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Alessia Amighini is a professor of political economy at the University of Eastern Piedmont and Co-Head of the Asia Program at ISPI.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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