{"id":7392,"date":"2025-03-11T16:49:33","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T15:49:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=7392"},"modified":"2025-03-11T17:06:34","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T16:06:34","slug":"if-there-is-trade-there-is-no-war-and-vice-versa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/03\/11\/if-there-is-trade-there-is-no-war-and-vice-versa\/","title":{"rendered":"If There Is Trade, There Is No War, and Vice Versa"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is a danger behind the protectionist rhetoric spreading in many parts of the world today. When leaders blame foreign competitors as an easy scapegoat for every domestic economic and social difficulty and depict them as a threat to be fought, they do more than just break the rules of multilateralism. They also contribute to making wars fought with weapons and armies less costly, not just those fought through tariffs.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In today’s fragmented world, a seemingly reassuring thought is that as long as there is trade and economic interaction between countries, there will be no war. This idea formed the foundation of the post-war economic order and the multilateral trade governance system, which at its peak of integration led to the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO).<\/p>\n

If There Is Trade, There Is No War<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In some ways, the multilateral order embodies the notion that trade fosters peace and respect for others, even those with different characteristics. This architecture is built on two key principles: non-discrimination, meaning that every country must treat all its trade partners equally, ensuring equal market access conditions; and marginal reciprocity, where reciprocity does not apply to absolute tariff levels or other market access conditions but only to marginal reductions in trade barriers during negotiations. This is why developing countries generally have higher tariffs than industrialized nations, partly to account for their lower economic development levels and to provide greater protection for their less competitive industries. For instance, a European car imported into India is subject to at least a 70% tariff, while an Indian car exported to Europe faces only a 10% tariff. In short, equal treatment with respect for differences, without imposing absolute reciprocity.<\/p>\n

The surge in global trade integration, especially since the mid-1980s, which saw the ratio of foreign trade to GDP reach 30% in 2006, was the result of a relatively stable political environment. Although this growth stalled with the 2009 financial crisis, the level has remained steady ever since. In essence, looking at the overall numbers, we are not in a phase of deglobalization but rather in one of “slowbalization,” as Harvard economist Pol Antras described it in 2021.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Global Trade as a Share of Global GDP<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The figure shows the sum of exports and imports of goods and services measured as a percentage of GDP from 1980 to 2023. Source: Italo Colantone, 2025 \u201cDe-Globalization and Fragmentation\u201d, Oxford Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

A World Increasingly Divided into Blocs<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Global economic integration, even with China, and the geographical fragmentation of production systems make a radical reversal of global trade trends difficult. This is confirmed by a recent report from the European Investment Bank and the European Commission\u2019s Directorate-General for the Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship, and SMEs. Based on a company-level survey, the report highlights that many firms do not plan to drastically alter their production strategies, such as relocating operations closer to their home countries or domestic markets.<\/p>\n

So far, so good: if there is trade, there will be no war. However, upon closer examination, economic policy narratives\u2014reflected in the statements of major world leaders\u2014are far from reassuring. Instead, they increasingly lean toward market closure. According to Global Trade Alert, which monitors all new protectionist measures announced, the number of restrictive trade policies has surged since the beginning of Trump’s first presidency in 2016.<\/p>\n

Many of these measures follow a geopolitical bloc logic, particularly Western policies targeting China. This applies to tariffs imposed during Trump\u2019s first term as well as to the European Union\u2019s increased tariffs on Chinese electric cars. One of Biden’s last acts as president was to ban exports of advanced microchips to potentially hostile nations\u2014such as China\u2014while allowing unrestricted trade with friendly regions, like the European Union. These strategies reflect geopolitical fragmentation, where military security and the fight against unfair trade practices take precedence over the efficiency-driven geographic dispersion of value chains and production systems.<\/p>\n

This fragmentation is becoming evident in trade data, particularly concerning U.S.-China relations. As seen in the figure below, trade flows and mutual economic interdependence between the two countries have significantly declined in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Commercial Interdependence Between China and the U.S. is Declining<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: China’s export dependence on the United States is measured as the share of Chinese exports to the U.S. relative to total Chinese exports. The U.S. import dependence on China is measured as the share of U.S. imports from China relative to total U.S. imports. Commercial interdependence is calculated as the bilateral trade (imports + exports) between the U.S. and China as a share of their total trade. Source: UNCTAD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

A recent study by the International Monetary Fund underscores that the decline in trade between geopolitical blocs (defined by their voting patterns at the United Nations regarding Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine) was much steeper between 2022 and 2023 than within the blocs themselves. While some trade flows were rerouted through third-party countries like India or Vietnam, as well as the European Union, the overall reduction in trade resembles the post-Cold War economic decoupling between the Western and Soviet blocs.<\/p>\n

The issue today is that Trump\u2019s newly announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (which were later suspended) would have impacted allied nations, just as his 2016 steel and aluminum tariffs did. This further deepens geopolitical confusion and uncertainty about the regulatory landscape businesses will face in the coming years.<\/p>\n

Lowering the Costs of Declared War<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The rise of protectionism does not necessarily increase the likelihood of war. However, the key issue is not protectionism itself but rather the underlying reasons driving protectionist policies. Geopolitical fragmentation is only partially about trade disputes or countering unfair practices like Chinese subsidies. It is primarily about security concerns. This is evident in the growing emphasis among world leaders on securing global supply chains and reducing dependence on trade partners perceived as potential military threats. The repeated calls for “technological sovereignty” primarily concern the defense industry.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, protectionist measures often serve domestic political purposes, reassuring citizens who blame market integration for rising inequalities\u2014whether real or perceived. In advanced economies, the middle class\u2019s declining purchasing power and the high costs of industrial restructuring are commonly attributed to hyper-globalization. While economic research suggests that automation and technological advancements play a significant role, political leaders often scapegoat foreign competitors as threats. Slogans like “America First” and the MAGA (Make America Great Again) doctrine aim to reassure voters through nationalist economic policies\u2014prioritizing the domestic economy and promising a better future by focusing solely on national interests.<\/p>\n

This dynamic is highly risky. First, both the need to appease domestic economic losers and the emphasis on military security lower the opportunity cost of war. The logic behind trade as an antidote to war is the well-known adage: “business is business.” For export-driven economies like China, Germany, or Italy, waging war against key trade partners would not only entail devastating direct costs but also mean losing major economic opportunities. When security concerns or social equity arguments outweigh efficiency considerations or the benefits of comparative advantage, interdependence is perceived as a cost or vulnerability rather than an economic strength.<\/p>\n

Second, protectionist policies often violate the principles underlying WTO-governed multilateral agreements. Consider policies like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which subsidizes domestic production, Chinese subsidies for electric cars, or certain aspects of European state aid programs. Weakening multilateral institutions and collective trade rules fosters a “free-for-all” approach, where protectionist measures are short-sighted and fail to consider potential retaliatory actions from affected countries.<\/p>\n

Many protectionist policies target a single trade partner, such as “U.S. vs. China,” bypassing WTO regulations (which do allow countermeasures against unfair trade practices). This violates the non-discrimination principle, reducing trade disputes to bilateral conflicts and ignoring the complex interconnections of global trade and the broader impact on third-party economies.<\/p>\n

If multilateralism works, trade rule violations lead to sanctions and economic costs. In extreme cases, countries risk losing relationships with the wider global trading community. However, if multilateralism fails and sanctions are not collectively enforced, the economic costs of trade barriers\u2014and potentially of war\u2014decrease. The case of Russia is a prime example. Despite severe Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has strengthened trade relations with Global South nations, particularly China and India, mitigating the impact of Western trade restrictions.<\/p>\n

Lessons from History<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Finally, history provides a lesson. As Kevin O\u2019Rourke and Ronald Findlay have explained, despite the dominance of great empires, global markets became deeply integrated in the mid-19th century, fostering a surge in trade. However, just as today, this era of booming commerce eventually gave way to protectionism, culminating in World War I.<\/p>\n

The parallels with today\u2019s world are unsettling. The growing influence of agrarian classes\u2014the globalization losers of the past\u2014led to a political shift toward protectionism. The rise of new economic powers, such as Germany and Japan at the time, triggered intense economic competition, eventually escalating into military conflict, particularly between Germany, Britain, and France. These rising powers struggled to secure seats at the table of global governance, further fueling fragmentation.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, history does not always repeat itself. However, memories fade quickly, and past lessons should not be forgotten. The transition from trade wars to real wars is not as long as one might think.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Giorgio Barba Navaretti is a professor of political economy at the University of Milan; fellow at CEPR; Distinguished Visiting Faculty at SciencesPo Paris; president of the Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto in Turin; and scientific director of the Centro Studi Luca d\u2019Agliano.<\/em><\/p>\n

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