{"id":876,"date":"2024-04-17T13:45:30","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T11:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=876"},"modified":"2024-05-27T19:47:08","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T17:47:08","slug":"who-is-winning-the-chip-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/04\/17\/who-is-winning-the-chip-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Who is winning the chip war?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chris Miller is a professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, Massachusetts. He writes for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and other publications. He is the author of the book <\/span>Chip<\/span> War: The Fight for the World\u2019s Most Critical Technology<\/span>.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

In advanced economies, it is no longer possible to imagine life without chips, those small electronic devices composed of a tiny silicon plate.<\/span> Around a trillion microchips are produced worldwide every year.<\/span> Not only those found in our computers or smartphones: in fact, almost every device around us is brimming with semiconductors, be it a refrigerator, a coffee machine or a car.<\/span> The entire digital world – but also most complex manufacturing goods – run on chips.<\/span> A battle for market dominance between superpowers is underway today.<\/span> The United States still has anyone using the silicon chips that gave Silicon Valley its name by the throat, but its position has weakened considerably.<\/span> China, on the other hand, is shelling out billions of dollars to develop independent technology to break free from the American stranglehold.<\/span> In between is Taiwan, which alone produces the vast majority of the most advanced chips.<\/span> And the future of semiconductors depends on this very island in the China Sea, which Beijing considers a rebellious province and which Washington has pledged to support.<\/span> Meanwhile, thanks to the rapid development of artificial intelligence, our demand for computing power – and therefore for chips – continues to grow inexorably.<\/span><\/p>\n

Professor Miller, your book is entitled <\/b>Chip<\/i><\/b> War<\/i><\/b>.<\/b> Like the space race during the cold war, semiconductors have become a point of contention between countries.<\/b> I won\u2019t ask you to speculate on who will win, but what factor do you think will determine the winner?<\/b><\/h3>\n

In the microelectronics industry, progress has historically been faster than in any other industry. Chips double their capacity every two years or so, following the trend first theorized by Moore\u2019s law. No other branch – aviation, automotive, medicine – comes close to this rate of progress. So the answer to your question is: whoever innovates the fastest and produces the most advanced chips wins. Currently, <\/span>only three companies worldwide <\/b>are competing for the challenge<\/span>: TSMC in Taiwan, Samsung in South Korea and Intel in the US<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The chip industry, as stated in your book, is currently inseparable from Silicon Valley.<\/b> How much is this position won by the US at risk in your opinion?<\/b><\/h3>\n

I don\u2019t think the risk is high: every advanced chip today is designed using US technology. Not only that, of course: Japanese, Dutch and German companies are also vital to the supply chain. But the US is by <\/span>far the most important player in the international chip industry<\/b> and retains sole control of some key hubs in the production process. Today, however, their problem is that they are losing dominance over another key step, namely the production of the smallest and most powerful microchips, which is largely located in Taiwan. This is a source of considerable concern in Washington, given Xi Jinping\u2019s declared intention to annex the island in the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n

We will return to China\u2019s intentions in a moment.<\/b> But what has made Taiwan so irreplaceable in the manufacturing process?<\/b><\/h3>\n

The success behind Taiwan lies in the unique business model of the <\/span>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company<\/span><\/i>, TSMC. Since its foundation, it has always focused only on the production of microchips, leaving the burden of designing them to its customers. That is how the Taiwanese managed to scale up production, reduce costs and become the market leader.<\/span><\/p>\n

And how long would it take to replace it, in the event of a crisis between the two Chinas?<\/b><\/h3>\n

I don\u2019t think we are even remotely close: <\/span>TSMC will remain an irreplaceable company<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Speaking of China, what exactly are its goals in the semiconductor industry?<\/b><\/h3>\n

China is still a medium-sized player<\/b>. It depends on foreign countries for huge volumes of microchips and spends as much each year on importing them as it does on oil. The flow of chip imports from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea to China is the largest in the entire global trade. This is certainly a vulnerability for the Chinese government, which aims to become self-sufficient. And it will probably become increasingly so, but only as regards the production of the largest and least efficient semiconductor, those for which it already has the necessary technology. But manufacturing cutting-edge chips is extremely complex. Despite significant government subsidies, Chinese companies have not yet bridged the gap with Taipei. Moreover, the US, Japan and the Netherlands are restricting China\u2019s access to some vital technologies for producing advanced chips. And Beijing may pay dearly for these trade blockades.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, China invests tens of billions of dollars a year to finance its enterprises, as do other Asian players.<\/b> Does this mean that the subsidy race is the only way to attract investment for other countries as well?<\/b><\/h3>\n

True, the US, Europe and Japan have provided much less incentive over the last ten years than China. And as a result, they have lost market share. Just think that according to the OECD before the subsidy plan approved by President Biden, the <\/span>Chips and Science Act<\/span><\/i>, US companies received more funding from foreign governments than from the US government. You did not need a PhD in economics to guess where they would build their factories: far from the US. In fact, there is no neutral ground, and <\/span>it is impossible to prevent China from funding its own industry<\/b>. The choice is between introducing subsidies of your own or losing what is left of domestic industry.<\/span><\/p>\n

As you mentioned, the US has imposed a series of restrictions on microchip exports to China.<\/b> Is this a strategy that will pay off in your opinion?<\/b><\/h3>\n

It is now five years since the first restrictions were introduced. Had it not happened, it is certain that Beijing would be in a better technological position today. And this is already proof that the restrictions are working. But I also think that in the long run, the race will be determined to a large extent by how fast the two superpowers innovate; while efforts to slow down the progress of others will only marginally affect the race. And in fact, the US is focusing more on \u201crunning faster\u201d than China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do you think export restrictions will become even tighter if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November?<\/b><\/h3>\n

I think the restrictions will be intensified regardless of who resides in the White House.<\/span><\/p>\n

We were talking earlier about Chinese President Xi Jinping\u2019s intention to annex Taiwan in the coming years.<\/b> Suppose it happens and Beijing forces TSMC\u2019s plants to fulfil only the orders of Chinese companies.<\/b> Or, even worse, imagine that TSMC\u2019s facilities are destroyed.<\/b> What would happen?<\/b><\/h3>\n

The entire industrial sector in the US, Europe and Japan would essentially grind to a halt<\/b>, and in the meantime, we would spend several years looking for alternative ways to produce chips domestically. It would be the biggest disruption to industrial production ever seen since World War II. Just to give you an example, during the production slowdown due to the lockdowns, the automobile industry alone suffered a USD500 billion drop in sales globally. A crisis between Taipei and Beijing, let alone a trade blockade or outright attack, would be far more costly. Just think of iPhones, whose key microchips are now produced on the island. Without them, Apple would no longer be able to sell any. The same applies to the machines used to train artificial intelligence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s talk about Europe.<\/b> It is only since the pandemic that the EU has realized that it needs to strengthen the supply chain of microchip production in order to reduce its dependence on imports.<\/b> What role can it play in this chip war?<\/b><\/h3>\n

There are two aspects. On the one hand, <\/span>European leaders are trying to make their industrial supply chains<\/b>, especially in the automotive sector, <\/span>more resilient <\/b>in the event of a crisis in Asia. The opening of a TSMC plant in Germany should also be read in this light. On the other hand, they are trying to support European companies that are already successful in the chip industry or in complementary sectors, such as chemicals or manufacturing. Europe\u2019s largest technology company, ASML, is a Dutch company that produces essential machines for chip manufacturing. Therefore, the European effort does not necessarily have to be aimed at increasing production alone. Instead, it would be more profitable to focus on the development of semiconductor design.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do you think public subsidies in Europe are sufficient?<\/b><\/h3>\n

They will certainly play a role when it comes to Europe\u2019s independence from Asia. Unless European governments take action, your chip companies will face increasingly fierce competition from China on mid- to low-end microchips. The debate in Europe is still open. But faced with China spending approximately the equivalent of Europe\u2019s <\/span>Chips Act<\/span><\/i> each year to subsidize its domestic industry, it is clear that market mechanisms alone will not be enough.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was only a few days ago that Singapore start-up Silicon Box announced it will build a new chip factory in Italy, a EUR 3.2 billion investment.<\/b> Intel had already planned to invest in Italy to build a plant, but that project did not go ahead.<\/b> In your opinion, how can a medium power like Italy compete with the US and Germany?<\/b><\/h3>\n

I think the key is to identify market niches with a strong demand, and where existing technological capabilities can be combined with the experience of the Italian workforce, without necessarily relying on heavy state subsidies.<\/span><\/p>\n

In your book, you write that \u201cthe war of the future will increasingly depend on chips\u201d.<\/b> What military advantages can a controlling position in the semiconductor industry bring?<\/b><\/h3>\n

The reason why the US focuses on controlling chips is because they are crucial for the development of artificial intelligence. Along with the Chinese, Russians, some European armed forces and certainly the Israelis, the Americans are also starting to use AI in military systems. Just think of autonomous drones or battles along the electromagnetic spectrum to jam communications and blind surveillance systems. There is a widespread belief among militaries around the world that <\/span>AI will revolutionize armies as we know them<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

So chips will be able to win wars.<\/b><\/h3>\n

Sure, and it has already happened. American technological dominance was one of the main reasons behind the West\u2019s victory in the Cold War. And it is the reason why the Soviets fell behind militarily.<\/span><\/p>\n

And how much do chips matter in the current war between Russia and Ukraine?<\/b> Sanctions should prevent Moscow from accessing Western technology.<\/b><\/h3>\n

A lot, semiconductors are present in the military systems used by both sides. But <\/span>take apart a Russian missile or drone and you will find that, despite the sanctions, it is full of Western chips<\/b>, or those of the West\u2019s Asian allies. For thirty years now, Moscow has realized that it is unable to produce competitive chips domestically, so it has focused on how to maintain access to this technology. It has partly succeeded, by smuggling microchips from Kazakhstan or Turkey; but mostly by simply buying them from China. They are not always the most advanced chips, but then again, they would not even be necessary given the warfare systems Russia deploys in Ukraine. In any case, China\u2019s role has been crucial.<\/span><\/p>\n

The war for chips made headlines with the Covid-19.<\/b> In the months following the outbreak of the pandemic, the semiconductor market was rocked by an unprecedented shortage: everyone wanted them, at any price.<\/b> Is that phase over?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Yes, it has been since the beginning of last year. <\/span>Today, however, the shortage concerns other types of semiconductors, <\/b>different from the ones that were sought after three years ago: these<\/span> are<\/b> the ones needed to develop artificial intelligence<\/b>. Take for instance OpenAI\u2019s systems, the so-called <\/span>large language models,<\/span><\/i> including ChatGPT: they have been trained essentially by assimilating vast amounts of data – texts, photos, videos, songs \u2013 from the internet. And they can only do this with the massive use of some of the most advanced chips. AI training is one of the most computationally demanding tasks among those undertaken by humans: that is why it costs hundreds of millions of dollars. The shortage of such chips was particularly severe at the end of 2023 and the solution is to develop increasingly powerful semiconductors. Historically, chip companies have always succeeded. They will succeed this time too.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, it has been recently reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is raising funds to build a network of semiconductor plants to prevent future shortages.<\/b> It seems that more and more tech companies want to produce their chips in-house, is that right?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Exactly. Whether it is Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet or Amazon, all the major tech companies are designing their own chips. With huge data centers to manage, by developing your chips in-house you can achieve greater efficiency and reduce energy consumption, which is a key element in cutting the cost of AI development.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two more questions on the advancement of the chip industry.<\/b> Is it possible that at some point it will become too expensive to produce them, or that further miniaturization of transistors, the tiny electrical switches that make up microchips, will be impossible?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Yes, it is certainly possible, but I do not consider it likely in the short term. We have learnt over the past fifty years that there are extraordinarily effective economic incentives to improve existing chips. This is also demonstrated by the current AI boom. We have developed better and better artificial intelligence systems precisely because we have built better chips.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the beginning of the interview, you mentioned Moore\u2019s law, which predicts that the computing power of chips doubles roughly every two years.<\/b> Is it still valid?<\/b> And in your opinion will it continue to apply?<\/b><\/h3>\n

I would say that there are two interpretations of Moore\u2019s law: the first, the traditional one, is to increase the computing power by continuously reducing the size of the transistors; but it is becoming more and more complicated. The second way is to design chips differently, without necessarily reducing their size. With this approach, you get better performing chips every year, at approximately the same rate as the original Moore\u2019s law. So yes, it is still valid.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chris Miller is a professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, Massachusetts. He writes for the New York Times, the Wall […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5738,"featured_media":877,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[39],"class_list":["post-876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWho is winning the chip war? - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/04\/17\/who-is-winning-the-chip-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Who is winning the chip war? - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Chris Miller is a professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, Massachusetts. 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