{"id":882,"date":"2024-04-17T13:45:28","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T11:45:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=882"},"modified":"2024-05-27T19:46:41","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T17:46:41","slug":"the-dark-side-of-italys-miraculous-job-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/04\/17\/the-dark-side-of-italys-miraculous-job-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dark Side of Italy\u2019s \u201cMiraculous\u201d Job Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following economic theory, to rapidly control inflation, unemployment must increase. This did not hold true Italy in 2023. Employment grew and by a large rate, creating a large number of quality jobs. Behind this miracle, lies the fact that wages remain low.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

In 2011 a journalist asked Tom Sargent \u2013 a leading researcher in contemporary macroeconomics and recent winner of the Nobel prize \u2013 to comment on the condition of the North American economy. The reply was simply \u201cWe do not cover these topics\u201d. Other than the researcher\u2019s brusque reply, it is true that labor macroeconomists have very few certainties when it comes to understanding the effective behavior of an economic system in a specific time frame. This is due to the fact that these predictions will usually be contradicted by the real events, mostly if the study focuses on shorter timeframes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, the trend of the Italian labor market in the past two years coupled with the surprising increase of jobs in 2022 and 2023 cast further doubts on the fact that periods of deflation, meaning when inflation decreases and returns to acceptable levels, which means increase of annual prices returns to 2% (figure 1 and figure2),\u00a0 are characterized by increasing unemployment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Figure 1 \u2013 <\/b>Inflation trend in Italy for 2015-2024<\/b><\/p>\n

\"<\/p>\n

Figure 2 \u2013 <\/b>Trend of Employment Numbers in Italy from 2012 to 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/p>\n

The \u201csacrifice ratio\u201d to get out of inflation<\/b><\/h3>\n

Until a few years ago, one of the only certainties economists had regarded the cost, in terms of loss of employment opportunities, during a period of monetary contraction- meaning when central banks increase interest rates -and consequent reduction in inflation. Indeed, following the macroeconomic textbooks, the necessary increase in interest rates is always followed with an increase in unemployment and reduction in employment.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Inflation is indeed one of the most hateful of taxes, it affects consumers and the economy in a non-evident manner and does not leave any possibility for the consumers to react. Italian workers saw the effect of inflation while shopping for necessary goods at the supermarket in 2022 and 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The history of economy in the afterwar seems to confirm what is written on deflation in textbooks. Historically, the reduction of inflation caused by an increase in interest rates is associated with a period of decreased economic activity. In other words, the reduction in inflation is associated with a period during which the GDP and employment rate is lower.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This mechanism is triggered by the effects of the increase in interest rates on the behaviors of businesses and families. When interest rates increase, businesses reduce investments and labor demand. The families \u2013 having higher mortgage rates- reduce their consumption and mortgage requests. Within the economists, the relationship between inflation and reduced GDP is called \u201csacrifice ratio\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Towards the end of the last century Laurence Ball \u2013 a macroeconomist from John Hopkins University- analyzed more than sixty episodes of deflation that occurred in OECD countries and has estimated an average value for the sacrifice ratio of 1.5. This means that to reduce inflation from 10 to 5%, GDP must decrease by 7.5 percentage points. For the deflation episodes that have occurred in Italy, this ratio is close to 2. When this ratio is calculated with regards to unemployment, the ratio remains more or less the same.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The older readers will remember the three greatest episode of deflation in Italy: two occurred in 1976-1979 and in 1981-1987, following the oil price crisis. Then we had the deflation of 1995-1998 that has miraculously allowed us to enter the euro. Today the reduction in inflation occurred thanks to the reduction of the tensions on the energy market, but most of all thanks to the policies implemented by the European Central Bank. Although with a slight delay, from July 2022 to September 2023, the ECB has implemented the strongest monetary restriction in the history of the Euro. This has determined an increase in interest rate from one lower than zero to a current one of around 4%. It was very important for the ECB to have acted in a timely manner as economic history has taught us that the sacrifice ratio is higher the longer the period of inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The government fiscal policy<\/b><\/h3>\n

There is not just monetary policy but also national fiscal policy. During the deflation period, the government led by Giorgia Meloni has done close to nothing, but at least it has not caused any damage. The Economic policies of 2023 and 2024 \u2013 other than the usual parliamentary actions with generous handouts \u2013 have maintained a macroeconomic setting coherent with European policies and the economic guidelines of the Draghi government. The pensioners were partly compensated for the inflation through the partial indexation of their benefits, while the autonomous workers benefitted in 2023 of an increase up to 85 thousand euros of revenue of the \u201cflat tax\u201d. Dependent workers had their tax cut confirmed for incomes up to 35 thousand euros, although this has not fully permitted workers to compensate for the increases in cost of living.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nonetheless, the inflation trend in the last two years has been quite surprising as can be seen from figure 1. The general price index has increased from around 1% in 2021 up to a dramatic 12% in February 2023. From that peak, the increase has then decreased continuously, arriving at the current level of around 2%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The \u201cItalian Miracle\u201d<\/b><\/h3>\n

The exit from inflation in 2023 was indeed rapid and brutal: we would have all expected a sacrifice period for the labor market. However, the Italian economy has surprised both observers and scholars. More than the fact that economic growth has maintained (although low) in 2023, the more surprising news regard the labor market. Last year the Italian economy has created more than half a million jobs. It truly is an impressive number, as it corresponds to an annual growth of employed greater than 2%. As the ECB started increasing the rates, almost 530 thousand jobs have been created and employment has increased by 2.3%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Figure 3 \u2013 The evolution of unemployment rate in Italy from 2012 to 2024<\/b><\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/b><\/p>\n

When In the mid-nineties Silvio Berlusconi entered politics, he convinced people to vote for him promising one million jobs in just one mandate, or in five years. The fact that today in just one year and a half and during a very strong deflation period, more than half a million jobs were created could make us talk about an apparent miracle of the labor market in Italy. What could be an easy objection is that the jobs created are more or less precarious, but the Italian economy has surprised us also in this aspect. Indeed, the Istat data show that there has actually been an explosion of full-time secure jobs, those jobs that the syndicates and politicians call \u201cquality jobs\u201d. Whereas the growth in the autonomous jobs has been mainly flat, in 2023 more than 400 thousand stable jobs have been created. Furthermore, the dependent precarious jobs have actually decreased.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Significance of Wages<\/b><\/h3>\n

How can we explain the boom in permanent employment? Certainly n<\/span>ot through the government’s fiscal policy, which played no significant role, nor through labor policies and legislation, which have largely remained unchanged, except for the confirmation of the tax wedge reduction introduced by the Draghi government in 2022. The most plausible explanation for Italy’s apparent job miracle likely ties back to the other side of the market, namely the low or non-existent growth of Italian wages. Let’s delve into the details.\u00a0 In 2022 and 2023, Italy’s harmonized consumer price index \u2013 most commonly used for employment contracts \u2013 increased respectively by 8.7% and 5.9%. In the same years, wage growth was about 3% annually. While prices rose by nearly 15% over two years, nominal wages grew only by 6%. This means that real wages fell by nearly 9%. In simple terms, for businesses, the real cost of labor in Italy decreased by almost 10%. As taught in any basic labor economics course, when real wages decrease, businesses’ demand for labor increases. It’s also insightful to look at investment trends. Interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank should have partly reduced incentives for companies to invest in new machinery. However, after two years of significant construction investments linked to super bonuses and low interest rates, Istat recently confirmed that machinery investments in 2023 grew by a robust 3%. Thus, it’s probable that part of the rebound in joint labor and capital growth is still related to a post-Covid recovery phase. Istat’s monthly data are also starting to show the effects of the demographic winter: in the 30 to 45 age group, jobs are decreasing. To understand this trend, it’s important to note that the absolute number of people in this age group is declining in the population, while their job positions gradually shift to the over-50 age bracket. The aging effect is evident as the employment rate among 30 to 49-year-olds has actually increased: when the reference population decreases, employment grows in relative terms. Thus, while celebrating the surge in permanent jobs and nearly half a million new positions created in a year is warranted, it’s crucial to remember and emphasize that the real payers of the last two years’ high inflation are the workers’ real wages.<\/span><\/p>\n

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