{"id":9179,"date":"2025-06-13T15:27:10","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T13:27:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9179"},"modified":"2025-06-13T15:27:10","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T13:27:10","slug":"how-uncertain-are-our-pensions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/13\/how-uncertain-are-our-pensions\/","title":{"rendered":"How Uncertain Are Our Pensions?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the mid-1990s, the Dini reform marked a crucial turning point: pension calculations shifted from an earnings-based system to a contribution-based one. Under the earnings-based model, pensions were calculated using the average earnings from the final years of work. Under the contribution-based system, pension amounts depend on total lifetime contributions\u2014and also on the country’s economic growth. The second system is therefore more complex, and today pension amounts can only be estimated. The uncertainty around pensions isn\u2019t just due to objective factors like life expectancy\u2014frequent legislative changes also play a role. Forecasting is especially difficult for younger people, who face a longer and therefore more uncertain horizon. A recent survey confirms how varied expectations are regarding retirement age and pension amount.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It was in the early 1990s that Italian politics and public opinion recognized a serious issue: pension spending was growing\u2014perhaps too much for the sustainability of public finances. The Amato government, remembered for a financial package worth 93 trillion lire (equivalent to \u20ac95 billion today), launched an initial pension reform in 1992. However, this preserved the earnings-based system. Two years later, the first Berlusconi government studied another reform. But opposition from the Lega party within the ruling coalition and from unions in the streets forced Silvio Berlusconi to resign. It would be Italy\u2019s first technocratic government, led by Lamberto Dini, that finally passed a law in 1995 that radically transformed the pension system.<\/p>\n

From Earnings-Based to Contribution-Based<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Approved on August 8, 1995, the so-called \u201cDini reform\u201d marked the transition from an earnings-based to a contribution-based pension system.<\/p>\n

In the earnings-based system, pensions were calculated using the average earnings of the last working years (10, 15, or even just the final year, depending on the pension fund), and were the product of three factors: that average, a fixed rate set by law (for many, 2%), and the number of contribution years.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the contribution-based system calculates pension amounts based on earnings across the entire working life, and in relation to Italy\u2019s economic growth and changes in life expectancy. Specifically, annual contributions are capitalized at a rate equal to the average GDP growth over the previous five years. These contributions form a monetary value which, at retirement, is multiplied by a coefficient\u2014higher if the working life was longer, but lower if life expectancy increases.<\/p>\n

Why It Used to Be Easier to Calculate Pensions<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The two systems differ not only in how pensions are calculated but also in how easy they are to forecast.<\/p>\n

The earnings-based method often produced pension amounts close to the final salary. The contribution-based method generally does not. Beyond the amounts, one immediate difference stands out: the earnings-based formula was far simpler. Calculating the pension required just two multiplications.<\/p>\n

The contribution-based method is much more complex. Since its introduction, a new expression has become commonplace: pension projections<\/em>. These are tools used by both mandatory and supplementary pension systems to help people estimate what their pension might<\/em> be\u2014”might,” because the amount is uncertain, depending on many variables.<\/p>\n

Two Types of Uncertainty<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Several factors contribute to uncertainty in contribution-based pensions\u2014not only individual ones (like wage levels or retirement age), but also macroeconomic (GDP growth), demographic (conversion factors vary with life expectancy), and legislative factors (regulations governing eligibility, contribution levels, and annuitization).<\/p>\n

Alongside these objective uncertainties is a \u201cpolitical\u201d uncertainty, which in some ways encompasses the others. It stems from complex, contradictory, and ever-changing rules: Italy’s pension laws have been revised every single year for the past thirty years.<\/p>\n

When Will I Retire? And How Much Will I Get?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Amid all this uncertainty, what do Italians expect from their pensions? In a recent survey\u2014the Italian Survey of Consumer Expectations<\/em>, conducted at the University of Naples Federico II as part of a National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) project\u2014we gathered data on expectations around retirement age and the so-called replacement rate<\/em>. This rate is the ratio between the pension and the final salary: for example, a replacement rate of 70% means the first pension payment equals 70% of the last salary.<\/p>\n

The survey involved a sample of 5,000 individuals aged 18 to 75.<\/p>\n

The goal was to capture both the expected retirement age (e.g., a worker expects to retire at 67) and the uncertainty around that expectation (the probability the person assigns to retiring within various age intervals, from 58 to 72). On average, respondents expected to retire just after age 65, with a pension amounting to about 65% of their salary. However, expectations varied widely, with more or less optimistic views on retirement age and replacement rates.<\/p>\n

But uncertainty about pension amounts is not just age-related: income variability also plays a role. This is clear from the chart below, which relates a measure of pension uncertainty to a measure of income uncertainty. When income is unstable (e.g., for a self-employed worker), so too is the ability to contribute\u2014and therefore the future pension. Under the contribution-based system, the need for protection increases for those with patchy careers or atypical employment, which often involves more variable income.<\/p>\n

Pension Projections: Usefulness and Risks<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pension projections can help reduce some of the uncertainty surrounding pensions by anchoring expectations to more solid, realistic figures. They provide point estimates for both mandatory and supplementary pensions. The former are available on the INPS website for those enrolled in the general pension system, while the latter can be accessed on the websites of supplementary pension funds. These tools are useful for everyone\u2014but especially for younger individuals and those with more variable income.<\/p>\n

However, they must be used with caution. They offer point estimates of values that remain fundamentally uncertain\u2014and the longer the time to retirement, the greater that uncertainty. Users must be able to understand this essential uncertainty and avoid the mistake of treating projections as certainties.<\/p>\n

Greater Awareness Among Workers<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What is clear is that the contribution-based method makes pension amounts more uncertain than the earnings-based system did. This uncertainty is widely felt among workers\u2014though not equally by all. Pension projections help users quantify that uncertainty. They could be improved\u2014for example, by including a simple and effective visual representation of their reliability, which is currently missing. But they certainly improve people’s understanding of the system. And in doing so, they help limit mistakes and promote better decision-making about how to meet needs later in life.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The chart shows on the vertical axis a measure of uncertainty about the replacement rate (pension vs. final salary), and on the horizontal axis a measure of uncertainty about labor income. Higher values on either axis indicate greater uncertainty. Source: Italian Survey of Consumer Expectations<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tullio Jappelli is Professor of Economics at the University of Naples Federico II, Director of the Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), and a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR, London).<\/em><\/p>\n

Mario Padula is Full Professor of Political Economy at Ca\u2019 Foscari University of Venice and former President of the Pension Fund Supervisory Commission.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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