{"id":9190,"date":"2025-06-13T15:41:49","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T13:41:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9190"},"modified":"2025-06-13T15:41:49","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T13:41:49","slug":"the-dangerous-relationship-between-demographic-decline-and-public-debt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/13\/the-dangerous-relationship-between-demographic-decline-and-public-debt\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dangerous Relationship Between Demographic Decline and Public Debt"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Italy is getting older. This isn\u2019t just a social issue\u2014it has major economic implications. An aging population means fewer workers and more retirees. The first consequence is a decline in savings\u2014that is, in the resources available to fund projects and investments, which are the engine of economic growth. But if a country doesn\u2019t grow, its public finances risk becoming unsustainable, especially in a case like Italy\u2019s, where public debt is already high. Implementing measures to raise birth rates is certainly helpful, but their effects won\u2019t be seen for quite some time. In the short term, the solution lies in increasing immigration flows.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In recent years, Italy has been undergoing a quiet but disruptive transformation: falling birth rates, an aging population, and reduced migration flows are reshaping the country&#8217;s social and economic fabric. But is there a link between these factors and public debt? The answer is yes\u2014more than one might imagine.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Fewer Young People, More Debt?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>A country operates a bit like a family: if there are more people working than those depending on them, the situation is manageable. But if the number of dependents rises, the economic burden becomes unsustainable. Today, the decline in the working-age population is putting pressure on public finances: fewer active workers mean less state revenue, while spending on pensions and healthcare continues to rise. This is how the sustainability of public debt\u2014which is already high in Italy\u2019s case\u2014becomes increasingly fragile.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>The Missing \u201cDemographic Dividend\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>There\u2019s a concept that links economics and demography: the <em>demographic dividend<\/em>. A country grows faster when it has a high share of working-age people compared to dependents. During this phase, many workers generate income, consume, save, and invest.<\/p>\n<p>Italy has already moved past this favorable phase: the number of workers is falling, while the number of retirees is rising, increasing the dependency ratio between the two groups. This leads to several consequences.<\/p>\n<p>First, people tend to save more during their working years to ensure future well-being. When the working-age population shrinks and the elderly population grows, the proportion of savers decreases. Fewer available savings mean less capital for investment. As a result, there are fewer resources to fund businesses, innovation, and infrastructure\u2014and economic growth slows.<\/p>\n<p>Not only that: if there are fewer available savings, capital becomes scarcer. And like any scarce good, its price rises. In the case of money, the \u201cprice\u201d is the interest rate\u2014so fewer savings lead to higher interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, a country with an aging population naturally faces higher public spending on pensions and healthcare, increasing the state\u2019s need for financing. To attract investors to buy government debt, the government must offer higher returns\u2014i.e., pay higher interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>In short, population aging reduces available savings, makes capital more expensive, and pushes interest rates up. It becomes harder to finance both economic growth and public debt, casting a shadow over the country\u2019s future.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Economists and Demographers: A Needed Dialogue<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Demographers and economists often work separately, but their analyses are deeply connected. Demographers study birth rates, migration, and longevity, which shape population dynamics; economists focus on economic growth, debt costs, and the primary balance (the difference between government revenues and expenditures, excluding interest payments), which determine the debt-to-GDP ratio. These variables affect each other: an aging country struggles to grow, interest rates rise due to limited savings, and the gap widens between pension spending and workers\u2019 pension contributions. Weak growth, higher interest rates, and a larger primary deficit (expenses exceeding revenues) threaten public finance sustainability. This interaction is often underestimated in political debates, but it&#8217;s crucial for tackling future challenges.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Italy\u2019s Demographic Challenge<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The data\u2014shown in the figure below\u2014speak for themselves: Italy\u2019s population peaked in 2011 and has been declining since. Fertility rates remain well below the replacement threshold of two children per woman, while life expectancy at age 65 has increased by about four hours for every passing day over the last twenty-five years. After the temporary drop caused by COVID, it continues to rise. Meanwhile, migration flows\u2014which had previously offset falling birth rates\u2014have decreased significantly.<\/p>\n<p>All of this means that exactly what we described above is happening in Italy: the dependency ratio\u2014the proportion of non-working-age people relative to the working population\u2014is rising. With fewer workers supporting a growing number of retirees, the pension system becomes less sustainable, the demographic dividend shrinks, and growth slows. Moreover, declining savings push interest rates higher, making it harder to finance public debt.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-9159 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-817x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"802\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-817x1024.png 817w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-239x300.png 239w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-768x962.png 768w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-1226x1536.png 1226w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-1634x2048.png 1634w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-300x376.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero-600x752.png 600w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero.png 2008w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Demography and Public Debt: A Risky Future<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The Ministry of Economy and Finance recently analyzed the impact of demographic trends on public debt sustainability. According to simulations in the 2023 Economic and Financial Document, shown in the figure below, if current trends continue, the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise progressively to 170%. But there\u2019s still time to change course: the debt-to-GDP ratio would improve significantly if migration flows increased, as the arrival of young foreign workers could help rebalance the working-age population.<\/p>\n<p>Migration policy is therefore the most immediate lever to counter Italy\u2019s demographic decline. Fertility-related measures take years to yield results, whereas immigration policies offer quicker solutions.<\/p>\n<p>Demographic trends are a crucial challenge for Italy\u2019s future. If left unaddressed, they will threaten public debt sustainability and limit economic opportunities for future generations. Decisive action is needed\u2014with policies aimed at reversing current trends, especially the ratio between workers and retirees. Because demographic decline is not just a social issue, but an economic problem that affects the future of all of us.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-9157 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero_2-1024x915.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"572\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero_2-1024x915.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero_2-300x268.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero_2-768x687.png 768w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero_2-1536x1373.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero_2-600x536.png 600w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/ENG_Favero_2.png 2008w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Carlo Favero is Deutsche Bank Professor of Asset Pricing and Quantitative Finance in the Department of Economics at Bocconi University. He is a research fellow at CEPR and an advisor to international institutions.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Italy is getting older. This isn\u2019t just a social issue\u2014it has major economic implications. An aging population means fewer workers and more retirees. The first [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12983,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[332],"class_list":["post-9190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Dangerous Relationship Between Demographic Decline and Public Debt - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/13\/the-dangerous-relationship-between-demographic-decline-and-public-debt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Dangerous Relationship Between Demographic Decline and Public Debt - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Italy is getting older. 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