{"id":9193,"date":"2025-06-13T15:45:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T13:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9193"},"modified":"2025-06-13T15:45:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T13:45:14","slug":"will-we-keep-paying-pensions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/13\/will-we-keep-paying-pensions\/","title":{"rendered":"Will We Keep Paying Pensions?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pay-as-you-go pension systems rest on a pact between generations. Through contributions, those who work pay the pensions of those who have retired. Implicit in this pact is a promise: workers are promised a pension in return. This is also the case in Italy, with its public pension system, generation after generation. But how hard is it to keep that promise? It depends on economic and demographic trends. One figure above all is alarming: the working-age population in Italy is shrinking. More retirees, fewer workers. And pension spending is rising relative to GDP. The path forward is clear: increase fertility rates, boost female labor force participation, and attract legal immigrants. Yet the government seems to be pursuing a different approach: increasing contributions\u2014at least according to the 2025 budget law. But this is the wrong path, and here we explain why.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The public pension system, managed by INPS, is based on an intergenerational pact. Those who work pay\u2014through social security contributions and other levies on their labor income\u2014the pensions of those who have retired. In doing so, they expect to be treated the same when they eventually retire.<\/p>\n

This pact becomes harder to sustain over time when the population declines, as it is in Italy. Especially when that decline is far from uniform across age groups. For more than a decade, the working-age population\u2014those aged 15 to 64\u2014has been shrinking. According to demographic projections by ISTAT, by 2050 there will be around 8.5 million fewer people in this age group than there were in 2010. At the same time, the number of people over 65 continues to rise\u2014by about 5 million between now and 2050 (and we hope to be among them). So: fewer workers and more retirees. Fewer people paying contributions, more people collecting pensions.<\/p>\n

Will the Pact Hold?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Given these demographic trends, a legitimate question arises: will the intergenerational pact hold? What aspects of demographic evolution threaten its stability? And what can we do to make the system sustainable?<\/p>\n

A chart from the latest Ageing Report<\/em> by the European Commission helps us answer these questions (see figure below). It shows how pension spending as a share of GDP\u2014the income generated in our country\u2014is expected to evolve over the next fifty years under various demographic scenarios. This pension-to-GDP ratio is a key measure of the system\u2019s sustainability: currently, about one-sixth of Italy\u2019s income goes to pensions, and funding this spending requires mandatory contributions equal to one-third of wages for employees. This is the highest contribution rate among OECD countries\u2014and even so, contributions are not enough to cover today\u2019s pension payments. The state must borrow and rely on other taxes (mainly on labor) to fund public pensions. That\u2019s why it\u2019s so important to monitor how pension spending evolves relative to GDP.<\/p>\n

Longevity Isn\u2019t the Problem\u2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What will happen to this ratio over the next fifty years? Let\u2019s start with the baseline scenario, represented by the red line in the chart. According to the European Commission\u2019s projections, pension spending relative to GDP is set to reach a historical peak\u2014over 17%\u2014within the next 15\u201316 years, before starting to decline. What if the demographic assumptions behind these forecasts prove inaccurate?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with longevity. Common wisdom suggests that rising life expectancy is the main threat to pension system sustainability\u2014since pensions, being lifetime payments, must be paid out over more years. But in reality, thanks to the reforms adopted in the late 20th century, increasing longevity has only a modest impact on the system\u2019s sustainability. That\u2019s because both pension amounts and retirement age adjust to life expectancy: if people live longer, they work longer and receive lower pensions, spread over more retirement years.<\/p>\n

This is clearly shown in the chart: the scenario with increased longevity (about 2.5 more years of life expectancy by 2070, raising the retiree-to-worker ratio from 65% to 70%) is represented by the light blue line. As seen, pension spending in this scenario almost perfectly tracks the red line. In other words, rising longevity compared to the baseline poses no major sustainability problem. We should simply celebrate longer lives\u2014especially if they also mean more years of healthy living.<\/p>\n

The Real Problem: Fewer Working-Age People<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The true challenges to the intergenerational pact stem from the shrinking number of employed people\u2014meaning from the income generated in Italy, or in other words, from the denominator of the pension-to-GDP ratio.<\/p>\n

The blue line shows what would happen to pension spending if the fertility rate\u2014children per woman of childbearing age\u2014fell 20% below the baseline. In that case, pension spending as a share of GDP would increase by nearly one percentage point, because over the next twenty years, the number of workers would drop further relative to the baseline. The effects would start to show near the end of the projection period: as seen, the blue line diverges from the red only around 2050, when those born in 2025 begin entering the labor market.<\/p>\n

What could jeopardize our pension system\u2019s sustainability immediately<\/em> is a further drop in immigration flows. The pink line shows what would happen if immigration decreased by one-third from current levels. The yellow line shows the opposite: if immigration increased by one-third. The differences from the baseline are clear: depending on the scenario, pension spending could decrease\u2014or increase\u2014by about one percentage point of GDP.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"
Note: The figure shows the projected evolution of pension spending relative to GDP over the next fifty years, under different demographic scenarios. Source: 2024 Ageing Report \u2013 European Commission.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

What Can Be Done to Make the Pact Sustainable?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

All this tells us that the most effective way to make the intergenerational pact sustainable is to minimize the decline in contributors associated with falling fertility rates.<\/p>\n

We need action on several fronts: i) Help families bear the cost of raising children; ii) Increase female and youth participation in the labor market; iii) Attract more legal immigrants (who can pay into the system). We\u2019ve explored how to pursue these goals\u2014drawing from other countries\u2019 experiences\u2014in previous issues of eco<\/em>.<\/p>\n

However, the Italian government seems to have chosen another path. Rather than increasing the number of contributors, it aims to raise the contribution level for those already working. According to the 2025 budget law, workers hired from January 1, 2025, will be allowed to pay up to an additional 2% of their salary into INPS, with 50% of those payments deductible from taxable income.<\/p>\n

This measure is unlikely to succeed, given that pension contributions\u2014including those from employers and severance pay allocations\u2014already take up 40% of gross pay. But it reveals the mindset behind the government\u2019s approach to pension sustainability: increasing contribution levels<\/em> instead of contributor numbers<\/em>.<\/p>\n

This is the wrong approach\u2014also because, as discussed elsewhere (see contributions by Mario Padula with Tullio Jappelli, and another by Mario Padula in this issue), it risks undermining complementary pensions, which are essential for ensuring adequate income in retirement.<\/p>\n

Since the law doesn\u2019t specify how the additional contributions will be used, some suspect\u2014based on the 2020 update to the Economic and Financial Document\u2014that the government intends to create an INPS-managed pension fund. That would be even worse, for at least three reasons.<\/p>\n

First, because INPS doesn\u2019t know how to manage financial assets. It simply collects contributions and uses them to pay pensions. If it had to hire skilled staff to manage investments, administrative costs would be very high. The experience of FondInps<\/em>\u2014the fund created to collect severance pay (TFR) from private-sector employees without a contractual fund\u2014bears this out. Administrative costs overwhelmed returns because INPS had to outsource fund management. It was eventually shut down after COVIP, the pension regulator, flagged its \u201cgrowing difficulties in maintaining operational efficiency.\u201d<\/p>\n

Second, because pension funds\u2014both in Italy and across Europe\u2014are subject to rules and oversight that ensure their proper functioning. These rules do not<\/em> apply to institutions like INPS or to professional pension funds (on the latter, see Mariacristina Rossi\u2019s article in this issue). So how could INPS contributions be given the same level of protection as those going into regulated pension funds?<\/p>\n

Third, because putting INPS\u2014an institution overseen by the Ministries of Labor and Finance\u2014in charge of managing Italian workers\u2019 savings risks creating a dangerous conflict of interest, driven by a confusion of goals. On one hand, there\u2019s the pension objective: maximizing returns for those who pay additional contributions. On the other, political goals\u2014such as using the fund to invest in Italian companies, in the name of \u201cMade in Italy,\u201d regardless of those firms\u2019 productivity or willingness to give up control or ownership.<\/p>\n

In a system where mandatory contributions already depend entirely on the performance of the Italian economy, such a conflict of interest would be very costly\u2014undermining the very principle of pension investing, which is based on risk diversification<\/em>, not concentration<\/em>.<\/p>\n

For all these reasons, increasing contributions does not seem like the right path to securing the intergenerational pact.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tito Boeri is Professor of Economics and Director of the Department of Economics at Bocconi University. He is the editorial director of eco.<\/em><\/p>\n

Mario Padula is Full Professor of Political Economy at Ca\u2019 Foscari University of Venice. He previously served as Chairman of the Pension Fund Supervisory Commission.<\/em><\/p>\n

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