{"id":9266,"date":"2025-06-20T16:53:04","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T14:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9266"},"modified":"2025-06-20T16:53:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T14:53:26","slug":"national-rearmament-is-a-bad-idea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/20\/national-rearmament-is-a-bad-idea\/","title":{"rendered":"National Rearmament Is a Bad Idea"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Europe\u2019s defense weaknesses have become clear with the threat of U.S. disengagement. The solution proposed by the Commission promises more resources but sticks to the old approach: each state manages its own military and armaments without any coordination. This is a completely misguided strategy, both militarily and politically. In a world marked by populism, deglobalization, and democratic crisis, increasing military spending in a fragmented way only strengthens nationalism. Building a real common defense\u2014more effective and more economical\u2014would also be a more forward-looking political move, as it would free up resources to improve citizens\u2019 economic conditions and strengthen their trust in national and European institutions.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>To describe the state of European security, we can use a metaphor: it resembles a train of 27 carriages running on NATO tracks, pulled by an American locomotive. But now Washington has chosen \u201cdisengagement\u201d from international cooperation in general, while its strategic rapprochement with Putin suggests that not only does it no longer want to pull the train at its own expense\u2014it might even decide to stop the engine. Europe, on its own, currently lacks both the means and the structure to take over from the U.S. at the helm of the train.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, it is necessary to design and build a new European locomotive\u2014but this requires bold political choices, strategic vision, and, above all, unity. A common command structure is needed, ready to be activated whenever necessary.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>A Collection of Armies<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The path of national rearmament\u2014where each country increases its military budget, modernizes its armed forces, and buys new equipment (often from different suppliers and with varying logic)\u2014is the wrong path. It strengthens the individual carriages rather than building an efficient locomotive.<\/p>\n<p>Data from the European Defence Agency, though incomplete, indicate that from 2020 to 2024, total defense spending in the EU rose from \u20ac198 billion to \u20ac326 billion, or 1.9% of the Union\u2019s GDP\u2014just shy of the NATO guideline of 2%.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of total military spending, Europe is not far behind China and is converging toward 33% of U.S. spending. But in research and development, Europe lags significantly: the 2023 peak of \u20ac11 billion is only about one-twelfth of what the U.S. spends in this field\u2014and also well below Chinese investment.<\/p>\n<p>While collaborative spending on procurement is trending upward, collaborative spending on research and technology is actually decreasing\u2014clearly at odds with the need to build a new locomotive.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-9281 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Eco_maggio_grafici_ENG_morelli-peluso-1024x783.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"489\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Eco_maggio_grafici_ENG_morelli-peluso-1024x783.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Eco_maggio_grafici_ENG_morelli-peluso-300x229.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Eco_maggio_grafici_ENG_morelli-peluso-768x587.png 768w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Eco_maggio_grafici_ENG_morelli-peluso-1536x1174.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Eco_maggio_grafici_ENG_morelli-peluso-600x459.png 600w, https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Eco_maggio_grafici_ENG_morelli-peluso.png 2008w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/>The recent rearmament proposal from the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, includes five different forms of concessional financing to allow individual states to expand their defense capacity. However, the \u20ac800 billion in additional debt intended to strengthen individual countries\u2019 defenses would be less useful than a much smaller expenditure aimed at building a shared project\u2014the new locomotive in our metaphor.<\/p>\n<p>A collection of armies does not make a European army. A collection of strategies does not make a common strategy, because duplicating equipment and structures costs much more than sharing them\u2014and it doesn\u2019t help build the kind of solid common defense that the vast majority of European citizens want.<\/p>\n<p>EU countries operate more than 170 major weapons platforms, compared to just a few dozen in the U.S. Europe has 29 types of naval frigates in service (versus four in the U.S.), 17 types of battle tanks (one in the U.S.), and 20 models of fighter jets (six in the U.S.). Each nation has its own army, tanks, aircraft, and command systems. The result: high spending, relatively low output. According to the European Commission, up to 30% of current military spending could be saved through greater coordination. That\u2019s \u20ac100 billion per year that could be reinvested in advanced technologies, cyber defense, and shared strategic capabilities.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s needed is a European force with interoperable equipment, common logistics chains, shared command centers, and a single satellite surveillance network.<\/p>\n<p>Today we have Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), the European Defence Fund (EDF), and the European Defence Agency (EDA). But these are partial, voluntary initiatives often slowed by vetoes and disagreements. They are not enough, because they don\u2019t provide strategic autonomy or a guarantee of coordination among existing forces.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Why a Strategic Center Is Needed<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Here\u2019s another metaphor to describe the European situation: if a mosquito net has a visible hole, the mosquito will enter right there. In other words, in the face of a potential military threat, only a centralized command can promptly decide where to concentrate resources, where to reinforce defenses, and where to intervene to fill gaps. If that metaphor isn\u2019t convincing, we can turn to strategy games\u2014particularly the Colonel Blotto game, one of the most studied in the world. Developed by French mathematician \u00c9mile Borel in 1921, it is used to identify winning tactics in a variety of contexts, from business to sports to politics. In our case, the Colonel Blotto game is enlightening. Each player must decide how many resources to allocate to each part of the defense network without seeing the other\u2019s choices. When resources are distributed uniformly but without coordination, the attacker has an advantage\u2014because each point in the network is, on average, protected by only a limited fraction of total resources.<\/p>\n<p>Only a strategic center, capable of deciding where and when to move resources, can ensure credible defense. This is especially true today, in an environment where attacks can be hybrid or cyber. NATO\u2019s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, always led by an American general, should evolve into a more autonomous \u201cEuropean Pentagon,\u201d connected to every point of the defense network, able to compare vulnerabilities, choose strategies in real time, and adapt quickly.<\/p>\n<p>The D-Day landing at Normandy offers a historical lesson. In that case, the German defense was centralized, but the Allies prevailed by surprising the enemy at the chosen point of attack. Today, in the face of a sudden attack and without centralized coordination, European response times would be even more inadequate and resource mobility practically nonexistent. This is why an increase in unilateral military spending\u2014accompanied by potential sacrifices in other areas of social spending\u2014would prove ineffective.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Aiming for the United States of Europe<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Whether or not Europe can build a common defense is also a key political crossroads for the continent\u2019s future. Strengthening national defenses without coordination also reinforces national identities, sovereignist reflexes, and populist narratives. Each state continues to present itself as the sole guarantor of its own security, thereby fueling distrust in Europe and its institutions. At the same time, increased military spending\u2014and the resulting higher national debt\u2014can only lead to a progressive reduction in welfare programs, worsening economic conditions and increasing public discontent. This, in turn, creates even more fertile ground for populist and sovereignist movements.<\/p>\n<p>In an era of distrust toward institutions and traditional politics, populist leaders gain consensus by promising protection\u2014of identity and borders. These are promises difficult to keep without undermining the foundations of pluralism and international cooperation. In this context, national rearmament becomes a powerful symbolic tool. It reassures voters, reinforces the idea of sovereignty, and offers a simple narrative. But in doing so, it risks turning security into a tool of exclusion rather than integration\u2014feeding the vicious cycle between nationalism and democratic crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Every national investment strengthens the logic of \u201cmine before yours.\u201d And when priorities diverge\u2014as seen with support for Ukraine, relations with China, or trade agreements\u2014there is a risk that even existing common policies will be weakened.<\/p>\n<p>By contrast, a well-structured common defense would increase political demand for union. Because managing security together also requires shared fiscal tools, joint legitimacy, and democratic decision-making processes at the European level. In other words, a common defense would bring Europe closer to the idea of a United States of Europe: a union based on shared values, shared responsibilities, and collective capacity for action.<\/p>\n<p>If investments in defense and existing military forces were centralized\u2014without increasing total national spending\u2014the result would be a significant political advantage: reduced sovereignty in defense matters could be acceptable precisely because it guarantees not only greater military efficiency and stronger deterrence, but also cost containment. This, in turn, would free up resources to invest in key areas of welfare\u2014helping to defuse social tensions and curb populist tendencies.<\/p>\n<p>Even the Draghi Report explicitly invokes the image of a Europe at a crossroads: either it finds the courage and determination to strengthen its role in providing common public goods\u2014such as defense\u2014or the entire European project risks losing its meaning. In the meantime, the \u20ac800 billion floated by the Commission would be more wisely spent on improving the economic conditions that fuel social unrest.<\/p>\n<p>A comprehensive reform of the European Union in the direction of the United States of Europe is unlikely to be achieved in the short term, despite several steps already taken toward greater integration. However, the main path remains to increase the EU\u2019s own resources\u2014through stronger taxation of capital and, in particular, multinationals\u2014so as to enable direct European funding for enhanced common defense capacity.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Massimo Morelli is Professor of Political Science and Economics at Bocconi University. He has taught at several American universities.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Eugenio Peluso heads the Living Conditions Department at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research and teaches economics at the University of Luxembourg. His research focuses on the origins and measurements of inequality and redistributive policies.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Europe\u2019s defense weaknesses have become clear with the threat of U.S. disengagement. The solution proposed by the Commission promises more resources but sticks to the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6529,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[27,346],"class_list":["post-9266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>National Rearmament Is a Bad Idea - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/20\/national-rearmament-is-a-bad-idea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"National Rearmament Is a Bad Idea - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s defense weaknesses have become clear with the threat of U.S. disengagement. 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